Walker Crips' Market Commentary

In the wake of the Middle East conflict, the UK economy is signalling heightened stagflation risks. This was backed by warnings from shipping experts, who noted that supply chain fractures guarantee at least six months of elevated food and fuel prices. The final composite Purchasing Managers' Index ("PMI") set to a six-month low of 50.3 as 40% of firms reported rising costs. Even with a fragile US-Iran ceasefire holding at the time of writing, the Bank of England ("BoE") faces a severe policy dilemma...Stocks featured:Antofagasta, Kingfisher and EntainTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange

Last week, the UK economy experienced high macroeconomic volatility as stagflation fears intensified after the Iran conflict disrupted global supply chains. March’s Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to a six-month low, while consumer expectations also dropped as households faced increases in energy prices. Initial panic over Bank of England (BoE) rate hikes, driven by the energy crisis, faded as BoE officials dampened inflation fears. They argued that the domestic economy lacks the momentum to sustain a 2022-style price spiral where costs drove wages and prices higher. Downing Street remains in active crisis management; Prime Minister Starmer is set to meet business leaders to navigate the fallout and discuss how the government and private sector can collaborate. Chancellor Reeves is attempting to avoid Truss-era panic by delaying unfunded universal bailouts, with broad energy support postponed until at least the autumn...Stocks featured:BP, Endeavour Mining and 3i GroupTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exc

Last week, Bank of England ("BoE") Governor Andrew Bailey warned markets against getting excited on rate rises after the Monetary Policy Committee ("MPC") voted unanimously for a steady hand, keeping rates at 3.75%. A conflict-driven energy price surge has caused markets to factor in an interest rate hike by September, with up to three rises anticipated this year due to inflation fears. The UK labour market is concerning: jobless claims rose by 24,700 in February, and wage growth hit a five-year low of 3.9%. Rising energy costs could trigger a new price shock; Cornwall Insight forecasts the price cap will rise by £332 annually in July. Political uncertainty is high as PM Keir Starmer's government faces internal pressure, with former deputy PM Angela Rayner warning that time is running out before the May local elections...Stocks featured:Diploma, BP and Endeavour Mining To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exc

The UK economy was hit by a stagflationary shock this week as Brent crude breached $100 a barrel. Even before the Strait of Hormuz crisis, official data showed Gross Domestoc Product (“GDP”) flatlined in January, missing the 0.2% growth forecast, leaving the country vulnerable to the energy supply squeeze. The Office for Budget Responsibility (“OBR”) warned the conflict could drive inflation up to 5% by year-end, wiping out recent progress. Consequently, the Bank of England (“BoE”) is effectively cornered as Money markets are now expecting a 70% chance of a 0.25% hike to 4% by late 2026, abandoning near-term cut hopes. With manufacturing orders collapsing under soaring costs, and households delaying purchases due to inflation fears, the Monetary Policy Committee (“MPC”) must now weigh the risk of cementing a recession against a spiralling, supply-driven price shock...Stocks featured:Centrica, Rentokil Initial and Smiths GroupTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exc

Last week, Bank of England (“BoE”) policymaker Alan Taylor noted that the economic impact of the escalating Middle East conflict is uncertain, and that the UK faces downside growth risks if energy costs persist. A conflict-driven energy price surge has led markets to reduce expectations for a March rate cut to below 50%, with traders entirely pricing out a second rate reduction for 2026 due to spiralling inflation fears. The UK labour market presents a worrying picture, with youth unemployment spiking to 16.1% and the Office for Budget Responsibility (“OBR”) forecasting overall unemployment to peak at a 12-year high of 1.93 million. Rising energy costs have triggered fears of a new price shock, causing economic confidence to plummet, with the Institute of Directors (“IoD”) index dropping to -63 in February. Political uncertainty remains high as PM Keir Starmer's government faces backbench pressure after a by-election loss to the Green Party...Stocks featured:Rightmove, Entain and Intertek GroupTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

Last week, Bank of England (“BoE”) Monetary Policy Committee (“MPC”) member Alan Taylor noted that inflation appears to be heading towards normalisation, paving the way for a potential dovish shift. Governor Bailey's belief that a fall in inflation is "baked in" has led markets to price in an 80% chance of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut on the 19th March. The UK labour market is weakening, with job advertisements at a five-year low and youth unemployment, although above the EU average, worsened by nearly a million young Britons not in education, employment or training. Businesses and consumers fear job losses, as shown by a dip in the GfK Consumer Confidence measure, exacerbated by rising payroll taxes and minimum wage increases. Political uncertainty persists after PM Starmer's Labour Party lost the Gorton and Denton by-election to the Green Party, with Reform UK in second place...Stocks featured:London Stock Exchnage Group, RELX PLC and Hikma Pharmaceuticals To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

Last week, Bank of England (“BoE”) Monetary Policy Committee (“MPC”) member Catherine Mann signalled she is edging closer to backing an interest rate cut, with markets now fully pricing in two reductions by year-end as inflation eases to 3%. The UK labour market is cooling, with unemployment at a cycle high of 5.2%. Small businesses anticipate job cuts due to April's increases in minimum wage and National Insurance. Political uncertainty persists amidst speculation that Manchester mayor Andy Burnham may challenge Prime Minister (“PM”) Keir Starmer. Despite this, institutional investors such as Schroders are increasing UK debt exposure, buying longer-dated gilts, believing monetary policy will outweigh near-term political risks...Stocks featured:Compass Group, St. James's Place and 3i GroupTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

Last week, the Bank of England's (BoE) Deputy Governor, Sarah Breeden, signalled that interest rate cuts could arrive within the next couple of meetings as inflation eases, with markets currently pricing in two 25 basis point reductions this year. Elsewhere, Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member, Catherine Mann, links US trade wars to UK inflation via higher Chinese export prices. The long-term labour market downturn is stabilising, with candidate availability up and the decline in permanent hiring slowing to an 18-month low. Political uncertainty, fuelled by speculation over Prime Minister Starmer’s leadership, has dampened sentiment, leading investors to cut UK asset and debt exposure. As a result, almost 80% of business leaders are prioritising resilience over investment due to political and international trade pressures....Stocks featured:Schroders, Coca-Cola HBC and St. James' PlaceTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.