Walker Crips' Market Commentary

Last week, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey defended the recent gilt sales programme, arguing that it remains broadly neutral for everyday taxpayers. While the Iran war threatens widespread price increases, the Monetary Policy Committee chose to hold interest rates. Soaring energy costs have fuelled worries about rapid deindustrialisation risks, which currently offshore roughly 25% of domestic manufacturing. Consequently, officials are likely to maintain a cautious holding stance as economic momentum steadies, preferring to monitor inflation, which is nearing 2.8%, rather than reacting solely to temporary energy spikes. Meanwhile, domestic retail sales broke a negative spell, securing growth for the first time since April, from warm weather retail demand...Stocks featured:Barratt Redrow, Standard Chartered and EntainTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

Last week, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned that Artificial Intelligence (“AI”) may need to be rationed due to energy capacity constraints limiting deployment. While the Iran conflict threatens widespread price increases, the Monetary Policy Committee expects no further interest rate increases. Workplace disruption has fuelled worries about rapid technological shifts, which currently engage roughly 84% of the domestic boardrooms. Consequently, officials are likely to maintain a cautious holding stance as median pay steadies, preferring to monitor inflation, which is nearing 4%, rather than reacting solely to temporary energy spikes. Meanwhile, domestic retail sales broke a negative spell, securing growth for the first time since spring, from warm-weather retail demand...Stocks featured:Airtel Africa, Tritax Big Box Real Estate Investment Trust and HalmaTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

Last week, Bank of England (“BoE”) Governor Andrew Bailey warned that the central bank must restore public confidence in its official 2% inflation target. This assertion follows new internal research detailing the high costs of bond liquidations. While the Iran conflict threatens widespread price increases, the Monetary Policy Committee (“MPC”) expects subsequent interest rate increases to follow. Workplace disruption has fuelled worries about rapid technological shifts, which currently overwhelm roughly 61% of the domestic workforce. Consequently, officials are likely to maintain a cautious wait-and-see stance as wage growth steadies, preferring to monitor long-term stability rather than reacting solely to temporary corporate inflation spikes...Stocks featured:Bunzl, InterContinental Hotels Group and PrudentialTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

Last week, Britain’s economic landscape continued to struggle due to the energy shock driven by the conflict in Iran, leading to Ofgem (“the Office of Gas and Electricity Markets”) announcing a 13% rise in energy bills. This and other inflationary measures mean the headline inflation will likely remain above the BoE’s (“Bank of England”) target for a fifth consecutive year. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey indicated that while rate cuts are off the table, recent bond market tightening has bought the central bank time to monitor the conflict's volatility. Investors have subsequently scaled back their interest rate expectations, pricing in just a small increase by year-end. There is also stagnation in the labour market. Resignation rates have dropped to 0.55%, with workers clinging to existing roles due to fewer vacancies; higher employer taxes; and automation threats...Stocks featured:International Consolidated Airlines Group, JD Sports Fashion and Melrose IndustriesTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

Last week, Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Megan Greene warned that central banks could not dismiss ongoing supply shocks from the Iran war as temporary. This concern follows a major hit to private sector activity. While the Middle East conflict continues to drive energy prices higher, the domestic economy faces a rapid slowdown. Geopolitical uncertainty has fuelled worries about rising wholesale costs and energy bills, which heavily depress UK consumer sentiment, driving it to near-historic lows. Consequently, policymakers are likely to maintain an extended interest rate hold as economic growth fades and inflationary pressures remain stubbornly high, preferring to monitor long-term financial and economic stability rather than reacting solely to temporary, volatile economic data points such as monthly inflation figures or employment reports...Stocks featured:IG Group, Babcock International and AutoTraderTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange

Last week official figures showed slight economic growth in the first quarter, but more recent data reveals a sharp drop in consumer spending. Hit by the Middle East energy shock, April retail sales fell sharply, and card spending recorded its first annual decline. Forecasters warned that the broader geopolitical fallout could cost the economy over 160,000 jobs. This accelerated this week, as data shows household sentiment plunged to its weakest level in nearly three years. Troubles in Westminster are impacting corporate planning with 39% of British firms delayed or cancelled investments due to policy uncertainty. This was backed by new surveys indicating a noticeable drop in job postings, as well as one in five employers planning to reduce their overall workforce....Stocks featured:Intertek Group, British American Tobacco and 3i GroupTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange

Last week, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey warned that insurers and pension funds have become dangerously intertwined with the private credit market. This concern follows a major hit to the financial sector earlier this year. While the Middle East conflict continues to drive energy prices higher, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) expects an economic slowdown. Geopolitical uncertainty has fuelled worries about rising food prices and energy bills, which impact roughly 80% of people. Consequently, officials are likely to discount upcoming growth figures as seasonal strength fades, preferring to monitor long-term stability rather than reacting solely to temporary economic growth data points....Stocks featured:Endeavour Mining, JD Sports Fashion and RELXTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange

Last week, Bank of England (“BoE”) Governor Andrew Bailey reiterated that the central bank is in no rush to raise interest rates. The recent surge in energy prices has created a significant supply-side shock, which Bailey and members of the Monetary Policy Committee (“MPC”) believe is better addressed through monitoring inflation risks rather than implementing an immediate tightening response. Policymakers ultimately voted 8–1 to maintain the Bank Rate at 3.75%, despite growing divisions within the committee as some members pushed for further hikes following the rise in inflation surveys...Stocks featured:DCC, Metlen Energy & Metals and The Weir GroupTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange