Walker Crips' Market Commentary

1/31/2023

US GDP figures better than expected

Season 1, Ep. 65
Warren Buffet compared the stock market to a voting machine and a weighing machine in a letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders back in 1987. In the short term, it can be influenced by ever-changing public opinion. But like a weighing machine, over the long term, what truly matters is the concrete, measurable financial results that determine its true value. This idea is relevant to the current situation, where the market is off to a great start for the year; perhaps as a consequence of market participants placing too great a vote of confidence in better-than-expected GDP data and an over-sensitivity to the annual pace of inflation cooling...Stocks featured:Diageo, Intel and J SainsburyTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.
1/24/2023

AI start-ups seeing a flood of investment

Season 1, Ep. 64
Equity markets delivered mild returns, despite an array of poor economic data announcements. Bond yields were also relatively flat leading to minor price changes with weakening conditions justifying potentially lower interest rate hikes across multiple developed economies.Figures released from the Office for National Statistics revealed further falls in retail sales by 1% in December as struggling consumers cut back their spending. UK house prices also recorded a sharp decline over the same period according to the latest Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors survey. This was a reflection of a challenging environment for new buyers following increasing mortgage costs and heightened economic uncertainty...Stocks featured:Alphabet, Amazon, Dignity and MicrosoftTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.
1/17/2023

Equity markets experience another positive week

Season 1, Ep. 63
Equity markets broadly experienced another positive week with the FTSE 100 rising 1.7% over the period, to reach a near all-time high. Investors eagerly awaited the results from the latest US inflation figures which revealed a fall to 6.5% from 7.1% the previous month, in line with expectations. This was the sixth consecutive fall in CPI inflation driven largely by declining oil prices. This helped strengthen the trend that falling prices would persist and reduced the pressure on central banks to tighten monetary policy through interest rate hikes. The announcement helped drive bond yields lower which had a positive impact on prices...Stocks featured:Card Factory, Direct Line and ASOSTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.
1/10/2023

Markets end 2022 on a high note

Season 1, Ep. 62
The markets ended 2022 on a high note, following what has been a very tough year for investors. The continued rise of inflation has ultimately led economies into a "once in generation" macro-economic cycle, of the kind last seen in the 1970s. There was a huge sell off in growth assets and fixed interest, to the extent that low risk investors generally performed worse than medium/high risk investors. Whilst we are far from out of the woods, inflation does now seem to be falling across most of the world and, although most central banks remain relatively hawkish on policy, there is an industry consensus that interest rates may not need to go as high as once predicted...Stocks featured:Anglo American, Antofagasta, B&M, Glencore, Greggs, Next, Rio Tinto Group and ShellTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.
12/20/2022

Santa rally curtailed by one-two punch from Fed and ECB

Season 1, Ep. 61
The week started well enough, with the publication of American data showing that the pace of inflation had decelerated more than expected in November. US petrol prices had fallen during the month, while food and rent inflation both moderated. Investors were jubilant all over the world. This was the long-awaited evidence that inflation had peaked, and markets seemed set for an easy run-in to the end of the year. The “Santa rally” was on.Not for the first time this year, however, central bankers sent markets into a tailspin, although this time it was a one-two punch from the US Federal Reserve and, the following day, the European Central Bank. The Fed raised interest rates by 0.5% as expected, but the tone of Chairman Powell in the press conference afterwards was particularly aggressive towards inflation and unsympathetic to markets. Powell focused on the labour market in his comments, which is still growing robustly, rather than other, weaker aspects of the American economy. Not only did the Fed raise its expectations for where interest rates will end up, but the strong degree of unanimity from the members of the governing committee surprised investors. Moreover, the committee raised its expectations for the trajectory of inflation, confounding economic forecasters who had just witnessed the rate of inflation begin to decline...Stocks featured:Babcock International, LVMH, Nucor Corp, Steel Dynamics, Tesla, Twitter and US SteelTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.
12/13/2022

Chinese authorities accelerate their departure from "Covid-zero" policies

Season 1, Ep. 60
Lacking the kind of economic data or central bank decisions that have moved asset prices recently, markets mostly drifted sideways or slightly lower during the week. As a result, most asset classes have been able to hang onto their recent gains. This rally has now lasted for two months, having been initially triggered by the expectation, subsequently proved correct, that central banks would slow the rate of increases in interest rates. That presumed a peak in the rate of inflation - which duly occurred, giving the rally yet more impetus...Stocks featured:Apple, Chevron Corp, Exxon Mobil Corp, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company and TwitterTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.
12/6/2022

Are we heading for a "Santa rally" in equities?

Season 1, Ep. 59
The markets were again driven by hopes of an easing in interest rate policy at the US Federal Reserve, as Fed Chairman Powell appeared to soften his stance in a speech in Washington DC last week. US government bonds had another good week. Their yields have been on a declining trend now for almost two months and, globally, other government bonds have mostly moved in lockstep with the US. Global stock markets were also willing recipients of the news. The S&P 500 is now down 17% for the year to date, but most of that decline has been caused by the technology sector. The more old-economy constituents of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are down only 6% for the year, not far off their European equivalents...Stocks featured:Apple, DoorDash, Eli Lilly & Co, Tesla and TwitterTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.
11/29/2022

Markets continued to demonstrate resilience despite problems in China

Season 1, Ep. 58
Markets continued to demonstrate resilience last week despite an accumulation of problems in China which threatened to undermine sentiment. Along the way, investors were cheered by European business activity surveys that were significantly better than expected, leading to comments by some optimistic investment strategists that any recession is likely to be relatively shallow. This view may be coloured by the 20% rebound in markets from their recent lows, however, and a cohort of dismal economists were quick to emphasise that business activity is still shrinking. Though inflation appears to have peaked in the US, and is expected to have already peaked in Europe, it’s too early to say that consumers will start to spend again. For a start, they may not have the financial resources: higher living expenses, even if they are rising at a less rapid rate, are still negative for economic growth. Given our meagre experience of inflation over the past few decades, it’s difficult to say how much consumers have already been impacted by inflation and how much of that impact is still to be reflected in their behaviour...Stocks featured:Ant Group, Apple, Manchester United and Walt DisneyTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.
11/22/2022

Markets broadly manage to hold onto momentous gains

Season 1, Ep. 57
In a relatively light week for economic data and company updates, markets broadly managed to hold onto the momentous gains of the previous week. Coming so soon after last week’s relatively benign US inflation data, the week got off to a good start with a deceleration in US producer price inflation, which should ultimately feed through into lower inflation in the prices of goods for consumers. What investors really want to know, however, is whether the more positive outlook for inflation will influence governors at the US Federal Reserve into slowing the pace of increases in interest rates. Despite an unusually large number of governors speaking at conferences and in interviews during the week, investors were left with the feeling that opinions are still divided between those who prioritise defeating inflation at any cost, and those who are becoming more cognisant of an economic slowdown...Stocks featured:Alibaba Group, Cisco Systems, Hasbro, Mattel, Siemens and Target Corp.To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.