Walker Crips' Market Commentary

The past week revealed unexpected weakness in the UK economy, with Gross Domestic Product (“GDP”) contracting by 0.1% in October against expectations for modest expansion. The decline was driven by falls in both services and construction, alongside a steep 17.7% drop in motor vehicle production, as pre-Budget fiscal anxiety weighed heavily on output. Despite this immediate slowdown, the Confederation of British Industry (“CBI”) upgraded its growth outlook, raising its 2026 GDP forecast to 1.3% and 2025 to 1.4%, citing a temporary boost from government spending while warning that deep-rooted structural problems remain. Meanwhile, the latest Bank of England (“BoE”) & Ipsos survey signalled a gradual easing in public inflation expectations for the year ahead to 3.5%, though hawkish policymakers continue to warn of persistent upward risks...Stocks featured:Informa, Unilever and WPPTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

The past week saw increased regulatory focus and a cooling labour market. The Bank of England (“BoE”) launched a "system-wide exploratory exercise" to stress-test private equity and credit markets, which hold 15% of UK corporate debt. The exercise will be run over two rounds, allowing officials to examine the impact of a crisis on the private capital market as well as on the wider financial system. Regulators around the world are concerned about the build-up of risks in the rapidly expanding private credit market after the collapse of the US car parts supplier First Brands and subprime auto lender Tricolor. UK Employment data showed a slowdown, with the BDO Employment Index hitting a 14-year low, and KPMG reporting continued declines in permanent placements and vacancies due to high costs and budget uncertainty. Despite this, persistent wage pressure for skilled labour pushed permanent salary inflation to a five-month-high, offering a slight sign of stabilisation...Stocks featured:Antofagasta, Diageo and JD SportsTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

The week was defined by Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ pivotal budget, which combined £26 billion in tax rises with increased spending commitments. Despite the Office for Budget Responsibility (“OBR”) upgrading 2025 growth to 1.5%, the reaction from the business community was negative. Following the tax rises, KPMG countered the OBR, warning growth will stall to 1% in 2026. Corporate sentiment crashed as the Institute of Directors (“IoD”) reported near-record low confidence, while the Confederation of British Industry (“CBI”) saw service optimism fall at its fastest rate in three years. Although a £22 billion fiscal buffer calmed markets, the cost was a collapse in business investment intentions to pandemic lows. Furthermore, with the Bank of England (“BoE”) warning it may "look through" one-off price cuts, the rate path remains complicated despite markets pricing a near-certain December cut...Stocks featured:Lloyds Banking Group, St. James's Place and WhitbreadTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

UK markets faced a difficult week as incoming data highlighted a loss of economic momentum ahead of this week’s Budget. The UK flash Purchasing Managers' Index (“PMI”) for November fell to a two-month low, with a slowdown in the services sector outweighing a modest recovery in manufacturing, signalling quarterly growth of just 0.1%. Retail sales fell 1.1% month-on-month, the first decline since May, while consumer confidence weakened sharply, with both GfK and British Retail Consortium (“BRC”) surveys showing significant deterioration. Inflation eased to 3.6% in October after three months at 3.8%, while core inflation softened to 3.4%, aligning with Bank of England (“BoE”) expectations. Pay settlements rose to 3.3%, the highest level this year, adding to cost pressures, while hawkish Monetary Policy Committee (“MPC”) members warned that policymakers cannot be complacent, highlighting ongoing upside risks...Stocks featured:Games Workshop, Halma and JD Sports FashionTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

The case for a December Bank of England (“BoE”) rate cut strengthened significantly last week, as a string of data pointed to a stalling economy and a rapidly cooling labour market. Third quarter gross domestic product (“GDP”) growth fell short of expectations at just 0.1%, with the lack of momentum reflecting continued weakness. Further to this, UK unemployment figures rose to 5%, the highest since 2021, prompting traders to price in an 80% chance of a BoE rate cut in December. In addition, UK wage growth is stalling, with a recent KPMG/Recruitment and Employment Confederation survey showing near 4-year lows, indicating to the BoE that wage pressures are easing. All eyes will now be on Wednesday's inflation data, forecast to ease to 3.6%, which would support the case for a more dovish BoE...Stocks featured:3i Group, SSE and Vodafone GroupTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

The Bank of England’s (“BoE”) Monetary Policy Committee delivered a narrow 5–4 vote to keep interest rates unchanged at 4%, marking one of the most finely balanced decisions in recent years. The split highlights the delicate equilibrium policymakers face amid uneven data. The BoE signalled that inflation, last recorded at 3.8% in September, has likely peaked and is now easing, keeping a December rate cut firmly on the table with markets pricing a 60–70% probability of a 0.25% reduction. Governor Andrew Bailey’s decisive vote, coupled with dovish comments acknowledging that a 3.5% terminal rate “fairly describes” his outlook, reinforced market conviction that the easing cycle could begin soon. Economic indicators were mixed with the UK Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (“PMI”) rising to 52.2, driven by services strength (52.3), while manufacturing stabilised (49.7) and construction contracted sharply (44.1)...Stocks featured:Airtel Africa, InterContinental Hotels Group and RightmoveTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.