23 April 2024

As inflation dynamics diverge between the UK and the US, the Bank of England (“BOE”) is poised for potential interest rate cuts ahead of the Federal Reserve. Bloomberg reports that the momentum of lowering inflation in the UK, with further easing expected, bolsters the case for a summer rate cut. Despite warnings from BOE Monetary Policy Committee members Jonathan Haskel, Catherine Mann and Megan Greene about the likelihood of rate cuts, market dynamics suggest a shift in monetary policy could occur sooner due to the UK's distinct economic conditions. Stocks featured:Mondi, Dr Martens and Dunlem To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/ This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

The Bank of England is poised for potential interest rate cuts ahead of the Federal Reserve

16 April 2024

The former Chair of the US Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, has offered a candid assessment of the Bank of England's ("BOE") forecasting processes, highlighting shortcomings such as outdated modelling software and staff carrying out manual functions which could be automated. While providing recommendations for improvement, Bernanke stopped short of advocating major departures from the BOE's traditional approach to monetary policy, leaving such reforms for future consideration. As discussions within the central bank continue, the review marks a pivotal moment for reassessing the UK's monetary policy framework... Stocks featured:Centrica, Fresnillo and Rio Tinto To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/ This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

Bank of England uses 'out-of-date' software to make economic forecasts

9 April 2024

Amidst evolving economic indicators and shifting market sentiments, the Bank of England's (“BOE”) latest Decision Maker Panel survey indicates a moderation in both inflation and wage forecasts. The survey highlights a decline in year-ahead own price inflation to 4.1% in the three months to March, down from 4.3% in February, suggesting a slight easing in price pressures. Similarly, one-year ahead Consumer Price Index (“CPI”) declined to 3.2% from 3.3%, while three-year ahead CPI stood at 2.7% versus the previous 2.8%, indicating a tempered inflation outlook. Moreover, the survey reports a year-ahead wage growth of 4.9% on a three-month moving average basis, coupled with an annual wage growth of 6.4% in March, reflecting a gradual slowdown in wage growth momentum. While the UK economy continues its recovery trajectory, the pace appears to have eased slightly, particularly within the services sector. The final services sector Purchasing Managers' Index (“PMI”) for March came in at 53.1, slightly below the estimate of 53.4, indicating a modest upturn in activity. However, this moderation leaves the composite reading at 52.8, below February's nine-month high... Stocks featured:Fresnillo, Ocado and Future To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/ This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

Bank of England suggests moderation in wage and inflation forecasts

2 April 2024

Amidst recent economic data demonstrating a challenging landscape, the UK economy finds itself navigating through uncertain waters. Official figures released by Reuters last week confirmed that the UK economy slipped into a shallow recession last year, with gross domestic product ("GDP") contracting by 0.1% in the second quarter last year and 0.3% in the final quarter of 2023. Although unchanged from preliminary estimates, these numbers underscore the fragile state of the economy. The weak starting point for GDP growth in 2024 suggests that the pace of recovery may be modest, with forecasts indicating growth limited to less than 1% for the calendar year. Structural headwinds are expected to constrain growth, prompting concerns that prolonged high-interest rates could exacerbate risks to the economy... Stocks featured:Big Technologies, James Halstead and YouGov To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/ This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

A surge in cash allocations towards UK stocks

26 March 2023

The Bank of England (“BOE”) last week announced its decision to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 5.25%, signalling a cautious approach amidst evolving economic conditions. However, recent developments in the UK's economic landscape have sparked speculation about potential shifts in monetary policy. With headline inflation easing to 3.4% in February, slightly below the BOE's forecast, attention turns to the central bank's stance on interest rate cuts.&nbsp; Stocks featured: Next, Judges Scientific and Trustpilot Group To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Interest rates maintained at 5.25% signalling caution

19 March 2024

As the financial world braces for the Bank of England's (“BOE”) meeting on 21st March, analysts are closely scrutinising signals of potential policy shifts. Despite nearing the 2% inflation target, the consensus among experts, as indicated by Reuters polling, suggests that the BOE is likely to maintain a status quo on interest rates for the time being. However, a dovish tilt is emerging, with expectations leaning towards a cautious approach to rate adjustments. This sentiment reflects the BOE's desire for more concrete evidence of inflation control before contemplating any significant monetary policy changes. Stocks featured: Halma, 4Imprint Group and Persimmon To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

The UK housing market exhibits signs of stabilising and cautious optimism

12 March 2024

UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt unveiled a 2% reduction in the main rate of National Insurance contributions in the Spring Budget, in line with expectations. These adjustments were supported by upgraded forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility, with revised gross domestic product projections of 0.8% in 2024 and 1.9% in 2025. However, an article from Bloomberg noted concerns as fiscal headroom dropped to £8.9 billion from £13 billion in the November forecast, the second lowest level on record. Stocks featured:Legal &amp; General, Kier Group and Greggs To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Battle lines are drawn on tax and public services

5 March 2024

Bank of England (“BOE”) Deputy Governor, Sir Dave Ramsden asserted this week that inflation pressures in the UK remain too high, emphasising the need for more evidence of easing before contemplating a cut in interest rates. Additionally, Ramsden suggested the possibility of the BOE selling all UK government bonds purchased under Quantitative Easing (“QE”) to be more prepared for future crises. The move aims to safeguard public finances, as the Treasury underwrites losses incurred on these asset sales. Ramsden clarified that other liquidity tools would replace QE. Stocks featured:Howden Joinery, Ocado and Reckitt Benckiser Group To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Jeremy Hunt revealed plans to prioritise "smart tax cuts" in the upcoming Budget

29 February 2024

Dale Bartleson of YO1 Radio in York sits down and chats with Alan Kinnaird of Walker Crips Investment Management. 📞 Get in touchTo find out more about the full range of services Walker Crips Investment Management has to offer please <a href="https://www.wcgplc.co.uk/InvestmentManagement/ContactUs" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">click here</a> to request a call back from Alan Kinnaird, Chartered FCSI, or another member of the team based in our York office. To find out more about YO1 Radio, please <a href="https://www.yo1radio.co.uk/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">click here</a>. Capital at risk. Professional advice should be sought before engaging in investment activity. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited and Walker Crips Financial Planning Limited are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

Exclusive: YO1 Radio Interview with Alan Kinnaird

Insights on the world of stock markets and finance

This weekly podcast from the team at Walker Crips Investment Management provides an in depth commentary on the macro economic factors driving global markets, whilst also focusing on individual stocks that are making headlines.This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

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