Share

cover art for Relatively benign American inflation data triggers global market rally

Walker Crips' Market Commentary

Relatively benign American inflation data triggers global market rally

Season 1, Ep. 56

Nearly all the price action in markets last week came in a burst of euphoric demand following the publication of relatively benign American inflation data. US inflation fell from 8.2% in September to 7.7% in October, with the details revealing that inflationary pressures were easing across the board: the pace of inflation decelerated in the property and service sectors between September and October, and there were outright declines in the cost of used cars, rent, clothing and household furnishings. One data-point does not constitute definitive evidence and, more broadly, current economic data confirms that a slowdown is underway but, nevertheless, this was enough to send markets into an epic rally. Expectations for interest rate rises in the US dropped like a stone, along with the safe-haven US dollar. US government bonds surged across the board, and five-year bonds enjoyed their biggest one-day gain in a decade. The S&P 500 stock market index had one of its best days since the start of the pandemic, rising by 5.5%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq index, which had been beaten down by the fear of rate rises, rocketed by over 7%. European stock markets surged in sympathy: the Euro Stoxx 50 index had gained over 3% by the end of the day and the UK-orientated FTSE 250 gained nearly 4%...


Stocks featured:

ASML Holding, Burberry, Disney, Hermes International, LVMH, Richemont and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.



To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/


This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

More episodes

View all episodes

  • 139. Global IT outage disrupts businesses and services worldwide

    07:24
    On Friday, a global IT outage linked to issues with a CrowdStrike cybersecurity update affecting Microsoft software disrupted businesses and services worldwide. In the UK, train companies, major airlines, airports and GP surgeries experienced significant disruptions, with Edinburgh and Birmingham airports particularly affected. Financial sectors were hit as major oil and gas trading desks in London and Singapore faced outages, and the London Stock Exchange Group's Workspace platform experienced service interruptions. Even media outlets were impacted, with Sky News temporarily going “off-air”...Stocks featured:Burberry, Dunelm Group and Ocado GroupTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.
  • 138. Service sector bolsters strongest GDP growth since January

    07:35
    The latest UK gross domestic product (“GDP”) estimate showed a 0.4% expansion in May, surpassing expectations due to growth in industrial production, services and construction. Over the past three months, GDP grew by 0.9%, the strongest since January 2022, with services contributing significantly. This aligns with purchasing managers index data, highlighting the services sector's role in the economic recovery...Stocks featured:Jet2, Liontrust Asset Management and HuntingTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.
  • 137. Labour's landslide brings political and economic stability

    07:10
    Recent updates indicate an optimistic shift in the UK economy. KPMG has revised its gross domestic product growth forecast for 2024 from 0.3% to 0.5% and projects 0.9% growth for 2025. This is supported by anticipated Bank of England (“BoE”) rate cuts, potentially reducing the bank rate to 3% next year. This economic boost is further aided by political certainty due to expected fiscal policy changes under a Labour government...Stocks featured:Ibstock, JD Sports Fashion and OcadoTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.
  • 136. UK Economy is showing mixed signals, the US market wobbles and first-time homeowners experience a mortgage squeeze

    07:12
    Last week, the UK's economic landscape presented a nuanced view. The Office for National Statistics revised first quarter gross domestic product ("GDP") growth up to 0.7%. Growth was driven by robust expansions in services and production, despite the construction sector experiencing a decline. Despite a 0.7% positive uptick in real household disposable income, April's GDP showed no growth for the month. The June Purchasing Managers Index fell to a seven-month low, indicating a quarterly growth rate of just 0.1%, suggesting cautious economic momentum.Stocks featured:DS Smith, Currys and Moonpig GroupTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.
  • 135. Bank of England's quantitative tightening policy came under scrutiny

    07:45
    UK inflation continued to ease in May, with the headline rate at 2.0% year-on-year, down from 2.3% in the 12 months to April, marking the lowest rate since July 2021. Core inflation was 3.5%, while services prices remained high at 5.7%. The largest downward pressure came from food prices, while motor fuels and transport costs drove inflation up. The Bank of England (“BOE”) held interest rates at 5.25%, emphasising the need for restrictive monetary policy to control inflation. Market expectations for an August rate cut increased to more than a 50% chance after the news, up from 30%. By year-end, 0.50% of rate cuts are now priced in. Economists are divided on whether the BOE will reduce rates in August or later, with some expecting a delayed cut followed by faster easing. Tight fiscal policy under a new government could lead to a more rapid easing cycle next year. The biggest risk to early BOE easing is a stronger economy with rising price pressures and wages. The BOE forecasts headline inflation to rise above target from the autumn and will use updated macroeconomic projections at its next meeting...Stocks featured:Games Workshop, Ocado Group and Phoenix Holdings GroupTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.
  • 134. Bank of England holds rates and wages outpace inflation

    06:38
    UK unemployment grew and wage growth stabilised last week after UK labour market data presented a mixed economic outlook. The May unemployment claimant count increased by 50,400, increasing the unemployment rate to 4.4%. Payrolled workers dropped by 3,000, and vacancies declined by 12,000 to 904,000. Despite these signs of a cooling job market, average weekly earnings remained strong at 5.9%, partly due to an April minimum wage increase. This wage growth complicates the Bank of England's ("BOE") efforts to balance economic cooling with inflation control.Stocks featured:Halma, Molten Ventures and FirstGroupTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.
  • 133. British Chamber of Commerce predicts UK Bank Rate to stand at 4.75% by the end of 2024

    06:43
    UK inflation expectations continue to ease with the Citi/YouGov inflation tracker for May showing a decline to 3.1%, ahead of expectations and the lowest since July 2021. The Bank of England’s ("BOE") Decision Maker Panel survey indicated steady short-term inflation expectations but noted a potential stall in the disinflationary process. Encouragingly, wage growth expectations fell, which could reduce inflationary pressures. The British Chamber of Commerce revised growth forecasts upward, but anticipates inflation to remain above the BOE's target in the medium term. The British Chamber of Commerce also projects modest BOE rate cuts with the key Bank Rate being at 4.75% by the end of 2024. Meanwhile, Purchasing Managers Index data showed the services sector continues to support economic expansion, and the manufacturing sector expanded at its quickest pace in over two years...Stocks featured:B&M European Value Retail, Hollywood Bowl Group and Ninety OneTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.
  • 132. UK inflation surprise: lower but sticky, Bank of England holds steady

    06:59
    The Bank of England's ("BOE") outgoing Deputy Governor, Ben Broadbent, defended the bank’s policy-making process against accusations of groupthink, highlighting robust discussions at meetings. While acknowledging progress on inflation, Broadbent hinted at possible rate cuts ahead of the BOE's next meeting in the coming months. Meanwhile, there has been positive news on the consumer front; the British Retail Consortium reports UK shop price inflation has returned to normal levels, with May seeing the lowest annual shop prices since late 2021. This decline, likely due to subdued consumer demand, coincides with the fastest growth in UK retail sales since December 2022, as reported by the Confederation of British Industry Distributive Trade Survey, suggesting rising consumer confidence.Stocks featured:Auto Trader, Pets at Home Group and Wizz Air HoldingsTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.
  • 131. Hopes of a Bank of England rate cut fades as UK Inflation Surprises and US markets power on

    07:15
    UK inflation eased sharply in April to 2.3% year-on-year, surpassing market consensus and Bank of England (“BOE”) forecasts of 2.1%, marking the lowest rate since summer 2021. While gas and electricity prices declined, motor fuel prices increased, slightly offsetting the downward pressure. However, core inflation remained sticky, recording a 3.9% figure against a consensus of 3.6%. The key services measure, closely monitored by the BOE for second-round effects, eased slightly to 5.9% from 6.0%, still above the 5.5% consensus.Stocks featured:National Grid, RS Group and Marks and SpencerTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.