Walker Crips' Market Commentary

Global equity markets delivered strong gains last week, with the United States leading the advance following encouraging developments in trade negotiations and solid earnings results. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq moved higher after the US and China reached an agreement to ease trade tensions during talks held in Switzerland. The agreement involves a 90-day suspension of most newly imposed tariffs. As part of the deal, US tariffs on Chinese goods will drop from 145% to 30%, while Chinese tariffs on US imports will fall from 125% to 10%. Markets responded positively to the prospect of a more constructive trade relationship between the world’s two largest economies. Additional optimism stemmed from corporate activity, including confirmation that Saudi Arabia will be permitted to purchase advanced semiconductor chips from major US technology firms. Meanwhile, Qatar Airways placed a record aircraft order worth $96 billion from Boeing. These announcements further boosted sentiment, helping major indices recover above their early April levels by the end of the week...Stocks featured:Airtel Africa, Entain and Imperial BrandsTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

Global markets showed mixed results last week, with the US equity market ending lower after a strong performance in the previous week, when the S&P 500 rebounded above its early April decline following President Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement. The losses were partly offset this week by positive de-escalation developments with China. It was confirmed yesterday, following talks in Geneva, that the two countries would reduce tariffs on each other’s goods for at least the next 90 days. The additional levies imposed by the US on China earlier this year will be lowered to 30%, while China’s tariffs will decline to 10%...Stocks featured:Centrica, Endeavour Mining and International Airlines GroupTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

Markets rebounded last week, led by the United States (“US”), as global risk sentiment improved amid signs of de-escalating trade tensions. China confirmed it is evaluating recent US overtures, while negotiations with Mexico progressed constructively. The S&P 500 recovered to levels above the early April decline following Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement...Stocks featured:Associated British Foods, Glencore and Smith & NephewTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

UK economic sentiment weakened sharply last week as global trade tensions intensified. The International Monetary Fund (“IMF”) cut the UK’s 2025 growth outlook to 1.1%, the steepest downgrade among major European economies, but noted the UK may still outpace G7 peers. Economic activity slowed sharply, with the composite Purchasing Managers' Index (“PMI”) falling to a 29-month low of 48.2, signalling a contraction. Consumer confidence deteriorated amid rising cost pressures, though retail sales surprised to the upside. Business leaders voiced concern over red tape costs and the threat of tariffs, warning of imminent job losses unless a US trade deal is struck. However, KPMG’s survey found financial services leaders remain optimistic about London's prospects, planning significant investments despite global uncertainties. The Bank of England (“BoE”) indicated it would weigh the impact of trade shocks at its May meeting, with rate cuts still in play. Overall, markets faced mounting signs of economic stress alongside cautious policymaker rhetoric...Stocks featured:Antofagasta, Croda International and Marks & SpencerTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

Last week, the UK economy grappled with escalating global trade tensions. UK inflation eased more than expected in March, with headline Consumer Price Index (“CPI”) falling to 2.6% from 2.8%, fuelling expectations of a Bank of England (“BoE”) interest rate cut in May. Core and services inflation also edged lower, reinforcing the view that monetary policy may soon shift. Economists noted tariffs might prove disinflationary, especially with weaker domestic growth. Markets are now almost fully pricing in three rate cuts this year. However, policymakers face uncertainty, with BoE policymaker Megan Greene highlighting the unpredictable impact of US tariffs and dollar weakness on UK inflation. Labour market signals remained mixed: claimant count rose and payrolled employment fell, but job postings climbed 3.3%, business sentiment weakened, CFOs grew defensive and the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (“ICAEW”) confidence turned negative...Stocks featured:Bunzl, Endeavour Mining and J SainsburyTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

Last week was marked by turmoil, as global trade tensions and market volatility drove a sharp shift in UK interest rate expectations. Investors are now pricing in up to four Bank of England (“BoE”) rate cuts this year, with a 0.25% move likely in May and nearly 0.9% of easing by year-end. Former BoE officials called for bold action, including a 0.5% cut or even an emergency meeting. The BoE flagged financial stability risks from global fragmentation, while deputy governors flagged growth headwinds from US tariffs. UK growth forecasts for 2025 were slashed to 0.8%, and confidence remained fragile despite February’s surprise 0.5% Gross Domestic Product (“GDP”) rise. Labour market data showed a rise in candidate availability and soft wage pressures. Consumer sentiment flatlined, and retail footfall declined due to Easter timing and global uncertainty. Inflation implications remained unclear, further complicating the BoE’s policy outlook...Stocks featured:BP, Fresnillo and GSKTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

Donald Trump’s long-anticipated tariff plan was unveiled last week, marking a significant escalation in US trade policy. At its core is a universal 10% tariff on all imports, supplemented by steep country-specific duties including 34% on China, 32% on Taiwan, 46% on Vietnam and 20% on the European Union (“EU”). These rates were calculated using a deficit-to-export ratio methodology. The United Kingdom, which maintains a goods trade surplus with the US, was subject only to the baseline rate, and is expected to prioritise securing a bilateral trade agreement rather than pursuing immediate retaliation. Canada and Mexico retained their existing 25% tariffs, though USMCA (United States - Mexico - Canada Agreement) compliant goods remain exempt. In response, China imposed a blanket 34% tariff on all US imports, intensifying global trade tensions and catalysing a broad market sell-off...Stocks featured:Associated British Foods, Glencore and St. James’s PlaceTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

The UK economy continued to display mixed signals, with improved business activity but lingering weaknesses. The composite Purchasing Managers' Index (“PMI”) hit a six-month high of 52 in March, led by a rebound in services (53.9), though manufacturing slumped to an 18-month low (44.6). Bank of England (“BoE”) Governor Andrew Bailey emphasised trade and artificial intelligence (“AI”) as key to future growth but warned of weak productivity. Inflation fell more than expected to 2.8% in February, though services inflation remained high at 5%. Consumers are cutting spending amid economic uncertainty, while small businesses plan to pass Chancellor Rachel Reeves' tax hikes onto customers. The Confederation of British Industry (“CBI”) reported a sharp drop in retail sales, highlighting weak consumer demand. Fiscal and trade uncertainties continue to weigh on the UK’s economic outlook...Stocks featured:Ferrexpo, Ithaca Energy and Ocado GroupTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

The Bank of England (“BoE”) maintained its base rate at 4.5% last week, prioritising a gradual approach amid persistent inflation and wage pressures. Markets are now assigning a 70% probability of a May rate cut, with only two reductions anticipated this year, fewer than economists forecasted. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (“OECD”) has downgraded UK growth projections for 2025 and 2026, citing global trade risks. Business sentiment remains cautious, with 57% of firms expecting a recession. Manufacturing output has weakened sharply, and insolvencies are rising. Consumer confidence is improving, but investment hesitancy persists due to fiscal uncertainty. Options traders are increasingly betting on more aggressive BoE rate cuts. However, the BoE is facing challenges, balancing weak growth with persistent inflation risks, particularly in the face of global trade tensions...Stocks featured:Compass Group, Kingfisher and PrudentialTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.