Walker Crips' Market Commentary

The UK economy showed signs of strain last week, with a cooling jobs market, weak consumer spending and rising corporate distress. Hiring slowed in February, with the smallest increase in starting salaries in four years, while permanent job appointments declined for the 29th month. Consumer spending growth lagged behind inflation, signalling cautious sentiment amid economic uncertainty. Business distress hit a post-pandemic high, with 11.2% of firms struggling due to high debt costs. The economy contracted 0.1% in January, driven by a manufacturing downturn, adding pressure on Chancellor Rachel Reeves ahead of the Spring Statement. Meanwhile, the government faces economic challenges as growth remains sluggish, casting doubt on its ambitious targets...Stocks featured:IAG, Melrose Industries and TescoTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

The UK economy faced continued headwinds last week, with slowing growth and persistent inflation concerns. The British Chamber of Commerce cut its 2025 gross domestic product (“GDP”) growth forecast to 0.9% from 1.3%, citing rising cost pressures. The Bank of England (“BoE”) monthly survey of UK Chief Financial Officers (“CFOs”) showed inflation expectations ticking up, with year-ahead consumer price index (“CPI”) at 3.1% from 3.0%, whilst most economists expect gradual cuts, bringing rates to 3.75% by year-end. Investor sentiment remained fragile, with UK takeovers by foreign firms plunging to £4.5 billion in Q4 2024, the lowest since the Covid-19 pandemic. However, domestic mergers and acquisitions surged to £8.6 billion from £1.9 billion in Q3, reflecting a shift towards local consolidation. In fiscal policy, Chancellor Rachel Reeves hinted at further public spending cuts to remain within fiscal constraints, as higher borrowing costs, increased future defence spending and downgraded growth forecasts limit fiscal flexibility. The Treasury is now preparing deep budgetary reductions, with several billion pounds in spending cuts under review ahead of the Spring Budget, with the Institute of Fiscal Studies saying that the chancellor could even be forced to raise taxes to plug any gap in finance...Stocks featured:Fresnillo, Melrose Industries and Rentokil InitialTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

The UK economy showed further signs of strain last week, with job postings hitting a four-year low in January. Wages continued to rise, reaching a record average of £40,846, adding to the Bank of England’s (“BoE”) inflationary concerns. Retailers warned of price increases due to higher national insurance and minimum wage hikes, particularly in the food sector. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll suggested the BoE could cut rates to 3.75% this year, with housing prices expected to rise as borrowing costs fall. The net-zero economy remained a bright spot, growing three times faster than the overall economy and contributing £83 billion in Gross Value Added (“GVA”). However, higher energy bills and taxation concerns are weighing on businesses, with two-thirds of hospitality firms set to cut jobs. Despite economic pressures, Lloyd's business barometer showed optimism, rebounding to its highest level since August 2024...Stocks featured:BAE Systems, Rolls-Royce and WPPTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

Last week, Bank of England ("BoE") Governor Andrew Bailey reaffirmed a cautious policy stance, highlighting the UK economy’s stagnation despite a slightly stronger fourth quarter Gross Domestic Product (“GDP”). Inflation surprised on the upside, rising to 3% in January - its highest in 10 months - driven by transport and food costs. Wage growth showed mixed signals, with official data indicating resilience but private surveys pointing to a slowdown. The job market weakened, with rising redundancies ahead of April’s National Insurance hike. Retail sales unexpectedly surged in January, but consumer confidence hit its lowest level since Labour took office. Corporate insolvencies reached a five-year-high, particularly in construction and retail. Meanwhile, manufacturing volumes continued to decline, although future expectations improved...Stocks featured:Centrica, Glencore and Lloyds Banking GroupTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

The UK economy faced mixed signals last week, with the Bank of England ("BoE") rate cuts struggling to filter through to borrowing costs, partly due to US market influence. Chief Economist Huw Pill warned against assuming inflation is conquered, advocating for a cautious policy approach. Meanwhile, the labour market has weakened significantly, with job vacancies falling at their fastest pace since 2020. Consumer confidence remained shaky, with fears of unemployment dampening spending. However, retail sales surprised positively, driven by health and beauty trends. Gross Domestic Product (“GDP”) data showed unexpected growth of 0.1% in the fourth quarter, defying recession expectations, while housing activity stalled. Despite economic uncertainty, chief executives remained optimistic about business prospects...Stocks featured:British American Tobacco, Coca-Cola HBC and UnileverTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

Last week the Bank of England (“BoE”) cut interest rates by 0.25%, with Governor Andrew Bailey urging caution over the split vote. Markets are still priced in for two more cuts this year, despite inflation forecasts remaining above target until 2027. The UK manufacturing sector contracted for the fourth month, with rising input costs squeezing small firms. Meanwhile, the services Purchasing Managers' Index (“PMI”) edged down, with job cuts accelerating. Grocery inflation slowed, but supermarkets warned of rising costs due to tax and wage increases. Budget retailers struggled, highlighting pressures on low-income consumers...Stocks featured:BBGI Global Infrastructure, WAG Payment Solutions and Wizz Air To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

The Bank of England (“BoE”) faces a tough policy decision ahead of its 6th February meeting, as economic pressures mount. Business activity has slumped to its weakest since the Covid-19 pandemic, with firms cutting jobs and raising prices in response to tax hikes. Consumer spending remained fragile, and corporate profit warnings are at a post-dot-com high. Market expectations point to an 80% chance of a 0.25% rate cut to 4.50%, though inflation risks may limit further easing. Employers have tightened wage growth, and firms have depleted pandemic-era cash reserves. While shop price deflation continues, food prices have risen at their fastest rate in nine months. Morgan Stanley has slashed the UK’s growth outlook to 0.9% for 2025, citing weak business confidence. Despite a slight improvement in employer sentiment, overall business confidence has dropped to a 13-month low...Stocks featured:Airtel Africa, Glencore and St. James’s PlaceTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

The UK economy is grappling with significant challenges as consumer confidence slumped in January, which was reflected in weak survey data from the British Retail Consortium. Industrial sentiment is at a two-year low, with output volumes falling at their steepest rate in four years, signalling more contraction ahead. Bloomberg warned of more frequent recessions due to weak growth potential, while stagnant wages since 2008 compounded economic pressures. The labour market is softening, with rising unemployment and declining vacancies, although wage growth remains high, adding to inflationary risks. Despite these headwinds, the Guardian reported that the UK remains the second most attractive country for investment, indicating long-term resilience. The Purchasing Managers' Index (“PMI”) data shows a slight improvement in activity, led by the services sector, but new work continues to decline...Stocks featured:Associated British Foods, Games Workshop and Intermediate Capital GroupTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

The UK economy faced mixed signals this week as inflation slowed unexpectedly in December, dropping to 2.5%, the lowest since early 2021, driven by lower energy and food costs. This has heightened expectations for Bank of England (“BoE”) rate cuts, with the market pricing in three reductions this year. However, core inflation remained stable, and economic growth is stagnating, raising concerns about stagflation. Business confidence plunged to a two-year low amid higher taxes and weak demand, while large firms plan hiring cuts and scaled-back investments following the Chancellor’s £25 billion social security charge hike. UK trade growth prospects remain subdued, with Boston Consulting Group projecting just 0.7% annual growth until 2033, hindered by Brexit and global supply chain shifts. Retailers, facing rising taxes and wages, are hiking prices, adding to consumer pressures...Stocks featured:Genus, JD Sports and Trustpilot GroupTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.