The Why? Curve

As Iran gets pounded by the US and Israel, how are the Arab nations of the Gulf feeling about the resulting disaster to their economies, and the missiles and drones landing on their cities? This wasn’t a war they wanted, and they are being left to pick up the pieces, including getting access to the Straits of Hormuz to export oil and gas. Dr Mira Al Hussein, of the Centre For The Study Of Islam In The Contemporary World at Edinburgh University, joins Phil and Roger to discuss the Gulf Arabs concerns about this conflict.

The Iran war is not going down well in the US. Donald Trump's MAGA movement is badly split - this was the president who promised an end to 'forever wars' and provide a stable economy, yet troops could soon be on the ground in Iran and the price of filling up your car keeps rising. So how damaging is all this going to be for the president in a year of crucial elections? Or - if he somehow wins a great victory - could it be the saving of his presidency? Phil and Roger ask Paul Whiteley, Professor of Government at the University of Essex

With the Iran war not going entirely as planned, does Donald Trump have his eye on another easier regime-change much closer to home? Cuba has been on his to-do list for a while, but the signals are that he needs a quick win right now, and Havana fits the bill. The Communist regime there is on its knees anyway, with its oil from Venezuela cut off, and its economy falling apart, 67 years after the Castro revolution. So could Cuba cut a deal, and what would that look like? Professor Joseph Gonzalez of Appalachian State University, North Carolina, who is writing a history of US-Cuba relations, tells Phil and Roger a surprising number of Cubans would welcome a new dose of US neo-colonialism 

The US attacked Iran without even trying to get the UN onside. It’s made it pretty clear it doesn’t feel the need to work within the UN charter, or any other rules it doesn’t like. So when the world’s biggest power ignores international law and does what it wants, has the whole system broken down? Are we now in a world where nations are unconstrained? Or has that always been the case, and the rules were just a fig-leaf to conceal the realities of power politics? Phil and Roger ask Dr Ben Murphy, Deputy Director of the International Law and Human Rights Research Unit at the University of Liverpool.

The US aircraft carrier groups were in place to threaten Iran as talks were still happening - and they helped launch the war when Donald Trump felt the negotiations were not going as he hoped. Iran’s foreign minister said Trump ‘bombed the negotiating table’. So is this the new pattern in big power geopolitics? Talk, but have a big stick waiting to ensure concessions. Or is it a return to a nineteenth century imperial style of big-power domination and intimidation? Andrew Latham, Professor of Political Science at Macalester College, and Senior Washington Fellow at the Institute for Peace and Diplomacy, talks to Phil and Roger about the return of gunboat diplomacy.

A government with a thumping majority that can't seem to run the country. U-turns every week and a permanent sense of crisis. And none of this is new - Johnson, Truss, Sunak, May. The country doesn't seem to be able to find a set of politicians who are able to get on with running things. Or is it just that we won't let them, because every problem becomes a social-media-fuelled crisis? Is the Starmer administration just a symptom of a system that doesn't work? Tom Skinner, a former special adviser to five Conservative prime ministers, tells Phil and Roger what it feels like inside a Number Ten under siege, and what needs to change to make the UK governable again.