The Transfer Flow Podcast

Ted Knutson shares his insights for EVERY EPL Matchday 10 game and discusses why you MUST wait for the lineups before betting certain games.Join Variance Betting: https://www.thetransferflow.com/upgradeSubscribe to our FREE newsletter:https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribeFollow us on our Socials:YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1QX: https://x.com/TheTransferFlowInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcastTimestamps:00:00 - Intro01:05 - Liverpool vs. Brighton01:48 - Why you must check the lineup before betting this match02:22 - Ipswich vs. Leicester City02:41 - Forest vs. West Ham03:48 - Bournemouth vs. Man City04:44 - Newcastle vs. Arsenal06:13 - Southampton vs. Everton06:36 - Wolves vs. Crystal Palace07:03 - Tottenham vs. Aston Villa09:29 - Manchester United vs. Chelsea11:31 - Fulham vs. Brentford

On this episode, Ted and Ravi answer frequently asked questions about getting started in sports analytics using their extensive knowledge and experience in the industry. They get into how to look for a job, the skills you need, and what to expect once you land a job. If you have more questions you want answered, leave them in the comments down below!Details for Ravi's conference in Houston:https://americansoccerinsights.com/Data Contest/Call for Proposals:https://americansoccerinsights.com/call-for-proposalsSubscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribeJoin Variance Betting: https://www.thetransferflow.com/upgradeFollow us on our Socials:YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1QX: https://x.com/TheTransferFlowInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcastTimestamps: 00:00:00 - Intro00:01:01 - How do I get started?00:04:46 - What skills do I need?00:21:25 - Where to look for football jobs?00:23:17 - Apart from football clubs, where are some other places I can find data jobs in football?00:26:25 - I want to go into football, but I don't have the data skills - where can I learn them fast?00:35:24 - How can I set myself apart from the crowd?00:46:00 - The pay seems very low - what can I do about it?00:51:10 - What's it look to work for these teams?01:04:52 - What are your biggest takeaways from working in sports?#dataanalytics #analytics #data #football #soccer #sports #sportsanalytics #premierleague #mls #stats

On this episode, Ted and Patrick discuss Manchester United firing manager Erik ten Hag. They run down why he had to be fired, Ruud van Nistelrooy as interim manager, and potential names for the job. Then, Ravi joins Patrick to discuss Barcelona's 4-0 victory over Real Madrid over the weekend. They talk about Barcelona's high line causing problems for Madrid, Madrid lacking a holding striker, and if Barcelona can maintain this form for the rest of the season. Enjoy!Subscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribeJoin Variance Betting: https://www.thetransferflow.com/upgradeFollow us on our Socials:YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1QX: https://x.com/TheTransferFlowInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcastTimestamps:00:00:00 - Intro00:00:47 - United sack Erik ten Hag00:01:31 - Ruud van Nistelrooy interim manager00:01:45 - Manchester United’s recent form00:04:14 - Trends for United00:04:39 - Could they be better with a better coach?00:05:39 - What a good and bad manager change process looks like00:07:24 - The U Curve of coaches00:10:18 - Could ten Hag’s hurt United?00:10:56 - Dan Ashworth’s limited early influence00:11:53 - Who should United hire?00:12:39 - Pochettino and Tuchel already have jobs00:13:28 - Could van Nistelrooy stay on?00:14:29 - Gareth Southgate00:15:27 - Ruben Amorim00:15:54 - How do budgets play into the new hire decision?00:17:51 - Xavi as next United manager?00:20:05 - Luis Enrique00:21:12 - Graham Potter00:23:09 - Eddie Howe00:24:24 - Mourinho was the most pragmatic of recent United coaches00:25:05 - Michael Carrick00:28:44 - Adi Hutter00:30:57 - Bournemouth manager Andoni Iraola?00:31:47 - Thomas Frank00:34:08 - The ability of a manager to get player buy-in00:35:41 - Roger Schmidt and his pressing style00:37:44 - Julian Nagelsmann00:39:44 - Should United settle for the least costly option?00:40:53 - The stress of managing/working for a team00:41:38 - Ravi joins to talk El Clasico00:42:46 - The game was closer than the score and Barca’s impressive workload00:44:33 - Madrid’s gameplan was to be direct00:45:19 - Was Fermin Lopez the correct choice?00:46:06 - The technical ability on display00:46:46 - Substitutions settled the game for Barca00:47:55 - Casado’s line-breaking pass for Goal #100:48:52 - The high line was very impressive00:50:11 - Lucas Vazquez struggled00:53:14 - Who should be blamed for Madrid?00:54:46 - Madrid struggle with a pivot and where was Endrick?00:56:52 - Bellingham’s lack of forward threat00:58:52 - Can Barcelona sustain this performance?01:02:06 - Mbappe moving to the right side?#manchesterunited #realmadrid #barcelona #manutd #eriktenhag #elclassico #football #soccer #podcast

On this episode, Ted shares his picks for EPL matchday 9. He starts by explaining why he flat bets and when to use accumulators. He gives insights on the matches he's betting on, including Arsenal vs. Liverpool, and explains why he's staying away from certain matchups (both City and United). Enjoy!More information on fractional Kelly betting: https://www.pinnacle.com/betting-resources/en/betting-strategy/revisiting-the-kelly-criterion-part-2-fractional-kelly/gbd27z9nljvgflggJoin Variance Betting: https://www.thetransferflow.com/upgradeSubscribe to our FREE newsletter:https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribeFollow us on our Socials:YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1QX: https://x.com/TheTransferFlowInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcastTimestamps:00:00 - Intro01:18 - Why do you bet flat amounts?03:44 - Why don't you bet accumulators?06:23 - Leicester City vs. Forest07:16 - Aston Villa vs. Bournemouth08:03 - Brentford vs. Ipswich09:02 - Manchester City vs. Southampton09:51 - Brighton vs. Wolves11:33 - Everton vs. Fulham13:10 - Chelsea vs. Newcastle14:15 - Crystal Palace vs. Tottenham15:33 - West Ham vs. Manchester United17:02 - Arsenal vs. Liverpool#premierleague #epl #betting #liverpool #arsenal #chelsea #tottenham #soccer #football #manchesterunited

On this episode, Patrick and Ravi discuss Real Madrid's 5-2 win over Dortmund and the injuries to Thibaut Courtois and Rodrygo. Next, they preview the Barcelona vs. Bayern Munich Champions League match today and how the game might be insightful for El Clasico on Saturday. They then dive into the best lineups for both Real Madrid and Barcelona, how much injured (Dani Olmo and Gavi) and older (Luka Modric) might play, and give their predictions for the final score. They end the conversation with Xabi Alonso's rumoured exit from Bayer Leverkusen at the end of the season, potential landing spots, and if he will actually leave. Enjoy!Subscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribeJoin Variance Betting: https://www.thetransferflow.com/upgradeFollow us on our Socials:YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1QX: https://x.com/TheTransferFlowInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcastTimestamps:00:00 - Intro01:02 - Real Madrid vs. Dortmund04:32 - Real Madrid’s defense was shocking05:32 - Different Midfield lineups Madrid has used06:50 - Ravi’s pre-game prediction07:48 - Bellingham last season vs. this season09:43 - Modric, Valverde, and Madrid’s Galactico mindset11:02 - How do they fix their midfield issues?11:41 - How much will Modric play?14:08 - Will Rodrygo be the odd man out?15:12 - Barcelona vs. Bayern Munich Preview16:20 - A good test for Bayern17:39 - Barcelona players returning from injury18:50 - How much can Gavi give them?21:02 - What front 3 will Barcelona play?22:35 - Giving minutes to returning players against Bayern23:33 - What lineup will Madrid use against Barcelona?24:10 - Courtois injury for Madrid25:19 - An offensive vs. defensive lineup26:37 - Stylistic matchups28:21 - Should Barcelona play more conservatively?30:11 - Both teams are weak at fullback31:13 - Lewandowski should play as a pivot31:57 - Ideal lineup for Barcelona33:21 - Ravi’s predictions for El Clasico35:38 - Patrick’s prediction for El Clasico36:45 - Flick’s first Clasico37:12 - A La Liga game vs. a Champions League game39:19 - Leverkusen rumoured to be looking for a Xavi Alonso replacement40:14 - The timing with Txiki’s departure and Pep’s contract expiring40:52 - Real Madrid also make sense41:34 - Hugo Viana and Ruben Amorim42:21 - The obvious spot for Xabi Alonso44:25 - What happens if Carlo Ancelotti doesn’t want to leave?47:18 - Alonso’s contract ends in 2026

On this episode, Ted and Patrick discuss the eventful Liverpool vs. Chelsea match and Liverpool's defense looking vulnerable. They also discuss the impact VAR had over the weekend, and get into Saliba's red card in Arsenal's 2-0 loss to Bournemouth. Next comes Southampton's loss to Leicester and Russell Martin's comments after the game. They finish with Fulham vs. Aston Villa, Brighton vs. Newcastle and the resurgence of Raul Jimenez, Manchester United looking competent, and the trend of teams playing safer.Subscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribeJoin Variance Betting: https://www.thetransferflow.com/upgradeFollow us on our Socials:YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1QX: https://x.com/TheTransferFlowInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcast00:00 - Intro01:06 - Liverpool vs. Chelsea03:23 - Trent Alexander-Arnold is a double-edged sword04:22 - How cautious can you be in the modern Premier League?05:07 - Concern for Andrew Robertson?07:44 - Did Chelsea deserve an early penalty?08:00 - VAR and red cards this weekend08:44 - Caicedo as a playmaker09:58 - This was Liverpool’s first real test10:41 - Arsenal vs. Bournemouth11:47 - Saliba’s red card13:03 - Marginal calls in football14:55 - How coaches game plan in the Premier League16:24 - Manchester City look fragile17:35 - Taking a red card vs. allowing a chance19:16 - Southampton vs. Leicester City20:36 - Russell Martin’s comments after the game22:02 - How coaches start to talk when they want to be fired25:29 - Mourinho’s ability to deflect from a bad performance26:17 - Southampton’s poor performance under Martin28:38 - 8 point gap to Leicester now28:59 - Facundo Buonanotte and Brighton’s future30:35 - Fulham vs. Aston Villa33:03 - Neutral’s will love Fulham games33:15 - Raul Jimenez is in insane form35:10 - The resurgence of Old and Tall strikers36:32 - Newcastle vs. Brighton38:52 - Manchester looked competent40:53 - Garnacho’s tendency to take wide-angle shots42:45 - Is the trend of teams playing safer a problem?

On this episode, Ted and Patrick discuss all things Premier League related from the start of the season. They begin with teams that should be higher or lower than their current position in the table. Next, they decide which of the 4 relegation candidates will stay up. And finally, both Patrick and Ted give their predictions for the Top 6. Where do you think Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester City, Chelsea, Manchester United, Tottenham, and the rest of the Premier League will finish?Sebastian's guest newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/p/3-young-attacking-mids-on-the-riseTed's preseason gambling podcast: https://youtu.be/keg7HlCXPwESubscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribeJoin Variance Betting: https://www.thetransferflow.com/upgradeFollow us on our Socials:Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1QX: https://x.com/TheTransferFlowInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcastTimestamps:00:00:00 - Intro00:02:34 - Who is the premier league table lying about right now?00:02:41 - Newcastle United00:05:37 - Giving honest takes vs driving engagement00:06:31 - The table of justice00:07:16 - Tottenham should be slightly better00:08:03 - Spurs are playing like a Bundesliga team00:09:12 - Exciting young pieces00:11:03 - Where are they likely to finish?00:12:44 - Bournemouth are better than the Table says00:14:30 - Optimism for Everton00:15:10 - Guest Newsletter authors00:15:45 - Dwight McNeil’s blossoming role00:18:11 - A Cash injection this January can fix their issues00:19:02 - Everton fans should be happy with the takeover00:21:35 - Manchester United’s rough start00:22:36 - The Model’s take on United before the season00:24:34 - United don’t tolerate long processes00:26:20 - United fans who have never seen the good times00:27:12 - Of the 4 candidates, who will get relegated?00:27:27 - Ipswich00:29:30 - Wolves00:31:40 - Patrick’s prediction to stay up00:32:43 - Leicester’s 5 point advantage00:34:06 - the difficulty making a case for any of these teams00:36:30 - What the gambling markets say00:38:50 - Predicting the top 600:39:11 - factoring in a potential punishment for City00:41:23 - Patrick’s top 400:42:40 - Talent goes a long way00:44:56 - Patrick’s title winner00:48:07 - Patrick’s 2nd place team00:52:39 - 3rd place00:56:48 - Debating the Last Champions League spot00:59:57 - Patrick’s 5th and 6th place01:00:24 - What the betting markets say01:01:46 - Ted’s top 601:03:26 - When we’ll check back in on our predictions

On this episode, Patrick and Ravi do a deep dive on the top teams in Serie A. They start with Napoli, who are top of the table despite what may have been the worst transfer window of any team. Next is Inter and their hopes back-to-back titles. Can they pull it off again despite an aging squad? Then comes Lazio, whose unconventional approach to players and manager hires sparks an interesting discussion on high variance teams. Last comes Milan, who almost sacked manager Paulo Fonseca early in the year, but have stabilized to be just 5 points out of first place. Enjoy!Subscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribeJoin Variance Betting: https://www.thetransferflow.com/upgradeFollow us on our Socials:Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1QX: https://x.com/TheTransferFlowInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcastTimestamp: 00:00 - Intro01:07 - Napoli’s fantastic start01:40 - Our rough grades for Napoli’s window03:04 - Lack of minutes for new players05:26 - A more Conservative defensive style06:28 - Grades are not based on 7 games 08:02  - Low shot quality in Serie A10:53 - Lack of depth in attack for Napoli limits their title threat?11:58 - Napoli’s advantage with no European Competition14:50 - Where will they finish?16:12 - Inter’s erratic start to the season17:22 - The most balanced team in Serie A?18:58 - Inter’s defensive shift19:20 - Can the oldest team in Serie A keep this up?21:31 - Marcus Thuram22:39 - Do Inter need to share minutes more?25:19 - Could they switch styles later in the year?26:55 - Predictions for Inter’s season27:17 - Lazio’s surprising start28:41 - unexpected names contributing for Lazio31:10 - Marco Baroni’s influence35:43 - Are fringe European teams to conservative with their coaching hires?39:12 - Thomas Tuchel’s training stories and how coaches influence their players42:36 - Analytics only matter if you can translate them into simple messages45:15 - Milan shake off a rough start47:14 - Favorable matchups coming up47:57 - Pulisic playing well and staying healthy49:38 - Rafael Leao’s Attacking threat51:47 - Using avoidance strategies to change player behaviors

On this episode, Patrick and Ravi discuss Dani Carvajal's injury and potential replacements that Real Madrid should consider. Can they get Trent Alexander-Arnold to come over, or should they look elsewhere? They then get into Chelsea's front line and which combinations of players is best for their team. Next, Manchester City's Director of Football Txiki Begiristain is set to leave, who are the likely hires with Pep's departure looming. Finally, Paul Pogba suspension was reduced, where are the likely landing spots for the 31-year-old Italian midfielder? Enjoy!Ted's article on potential Toni Kroos replacements: https://www.thetransferflow.com/p/kroos-ify-meSubscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribeJoin Variance Betting: https://www.thetransferflow.com/upgradeFollow us on our Socials:Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1QX: https://x.com/TheTransferFlowInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcastTimestamps: 00:00 - Intro00:46 - Dani Carvajal's injury01:34 - Specifics of the injury04:50 - Carvajal's 1 year extension05:23 - Solutions for Real Madrid05:57 - A leadership gap07:33 - Can Madrid lure Trent Alexander-Arnold?10:03 - Hakimi as an option at RB12:50 - Sliding Militao over from CB?15:16 - Other candidates at RB17:55 - Will Kroos unretire?18:20 - Unresolved Vini Jr/Mbappe problems19:55 - Who should play in Chelsea's front line?24:29 - The disadvantage of signing the best players from smaller sides?26:26 - Where does Nkunku fit in?27:23 - Can players change their pressing style?30:18 - Joao Felix's adaptability31:02 - What happens against better sides?32:33 - City lose their Director of Football, Txiki Begiristain33:24 - How did Txiki perform?36:17 - Potential replacements39:09 - How does a DoF influence the rest of the back room?42:47 - Will the next DoF be more powerful with Pep likely gone?45:38 - Paul Pogba's suspension reduced46:12 - Where might Pogba end up?48:38 - Is MLS an option?50:20 - Could he stay in Italy?51:28 - Playing Pogba as a 1053:16 - Taking a smaller contract to entice bigger teams