The Transfer Flow Podcast

On this episode, Ted shares his picks for EPL matchday 9. He starts by explaining why he flat bets and when to use accumulators. He gives insights on the matches he's betting on, including Arsenal vs. Liverpool, and explains why he's staying away from certain matchups (both City and United). Enjoy!More information on fractional Kelly betting: https://www.pinnacle.com/betting-resources/en/betting-strategy/revisiting-the-kelly-criterion-part-2-fractional-kelly/gbd27z9nljvgflggJoin Variance Betting: https://www.thetransferflow.com/upgradeSubscribe to our FREE newsletter:https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribeFollow us on our Socials:YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1QX: https://x.com/TheTransferFlowInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcastTimestamps:00:00 - Intro01:18 - Why do you bet flat amounts?03:44 - Why don't you bet accumulators?06:23 - Leicester City vs. Forest07:16 - Aston Villa vs. Bournemouth08:03 - Brentford vs. Ipswich09:02 - Manchester City vs. Southampton09:51 - Brighton vs. Wolves11:33 - Everton vs. Fulham13:10 - Chelsea vs. Newcastle14:15 - Crystal Palace vs. Tottenham15:33 - West Ham vs. Manchester United17:02 - Arsenal vs. Liverpool#premierleague #epl #betting #liverpool #arsenal #chelsea #tottenham #soccer #football #manchesterunited

On this episode, Ted and Patrick discuss the eventful Liverpool vs. Chelsea match and Liverpool's defense looking vulnerable. They also discuss the impact VAR had over the weekend, and get into Saliba's red card in Arsenal's 2-0 loss to Bournemouth. Next comes Southampton's loss to Leicester and Russell Martin's comments after the game. They finish with Fulham vs. Aston Villa, Brighton vs. Newcastle and the resurgence of Raul Jimenez, Manchester United looking competent, and the trend of teams playing safer.Subscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribeJoin Variance Betting: https://www.thetransferflow.com/upgradeFollow us on our Socials:YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1QX: https://x.com/TheTransferFlowInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcast00:00 - Intro01:06 - Liverpool vs. Chelsea03:23 - Trent Alexander-Arnold is a double-edged sword04:22 - How cautious can you be in the modern Premier League?05:07 - Concern for Andrew Robertson?07:44 - Did Chelsea deserve an early penalty?08:00 - VAR and red cards this weekend08:44 - Caicedo as a playmaker09:58 - This was Liverpool’s first real test10:41 - Arsenal vs. Bournemouth11:47 - Saliba’s red card13:03 - Marginal calls in football14:55 - How coaches game plan in the Premier League16:24 - Manchester City look fragile17:35 - Taking a red card vs. allowing a chance19:16 - Southampton vs. Leicester City20:36 - Russell Martin’s comments after the game22:02 - How coaches start to talk when they want to be fired25:29 - Mourinho’s ability to deflect from a bad performance26:17 - Southampton’s poor performance under Martin28:38 - 8 point gap to Leicester now28:59 - Facundo Buonanotte and Brighton’s future30:35 - Fulham vs. Aston Villa33:03 - Neutral’s will love Fulham games33:15 - Raul Jimenez is in insane form35:10 - The resurgence of Old and Tall strikers36:32 - Newcastle vs. Brighton38:52 - Manchester looked competent40:53 - Garnacho’s tendency to take wide-angle shots42:45 - Is the trend of teams playing safer a problem?

On this episode, Ted and Patrick discuss all things Premier League related from the start of the season. They begin with teams that should be higher or lower than their current position in the table. Next, they decide which of the 4 relegation candidates will stay up. And finally, both Patrick and Ted give their predictions for the Top 6. Where do you think Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester City, Chelsea, Manchester United, Tottenham, and the rest of the Premier League will finish?Sebastian's guest newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/p/3-young-attacking-mids-on-the-riseTed's preseason gambling podcast: https://youtu.be/keg7HlCXPwESubscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribeJoin Variance Betting: https://www.thetransferflow.com/upgradeFollow us on our Socials:Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1QX: https://x.com/TheTransferFlowInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcastTimestamps:00:00:00 - Intro00:02:34 - Who is the premier league table lying about right now?00:02:41 - Newcastle United00:05:37 - Giving honest takes vs driving engagement00:06:31 - The table of justice00:07:16 - Tottenham should be slightly better00:08:03 - Spurs are playing like a Bundesliga team00:09:12 - Exciting young pieces00:11:03 - Where are they likely to finish?00:12:44 - Bournemouth are better than the Table says00:14:30 - Optimism for Everton00:15:10 - Guest Newsletter authors00:15:45 - Dwight McNeil’s blossoming role00:18:11 - A Cash injection this January can fix their issues00:19:02 - Everton fans should be happy with the takeover00:21:35 - Manchester United’s rough start00:22:36 - The Model’s take on United before the season00:24:34 - United don’t tolerate long processes00:26:20 - United fans who have never seen the good times00:27:12 - Of the 4 candidates, who will get relegated?00:27:27 - Ipswich00:29:30 - Wolves00:31:40 - Patrick’s prediction to stay up00:32:43 - Leicester’s 5 point advantage00:34:06 - the difficulty making a case for any of these teams00:36:30 - What the gambling markets say00:38:50 - Predicting the top 600:39:11 - factoring in a potential punishment for City00:41:23 - Patrick’s top 400:42:40 - Talent goes a long way00:44:56 - Patrick’s title winner00:48:07 - Patrick’s 2nd place team00:52:39 - 3rd place00:56:48 - Debating the Last Champions League spot00:59:57 - Patrick’s 5th and 6th place01:00:24 - What the betting markets say01:01:46 - Ted’s top 601:03:26 - When we’ll check back in on our predictions

On this episode, Patrick and Ravi do a deep dive on the top teams in Serie A. They start with Napoli, who are top of the table despite what may have been the worst transfer window of any team. Next is Inter and their hopes back-to-back titles. Can they pull it off again despite an aging squad? Then comes Lazio, whose unconventional approach to players and manager hires sparks an interesting discussion on high variance teams. Last comes Milan, who almost sacked manager Paulo Fonseca early in the year, but have stabilized to be just 5 points out of first place. Enjoy!Subscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribeJoin Variance Betting: https://www.thetransferflow.com/upgradeFollow us on our Socials:Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1QX: https://x.com/TheTransferFlowInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcastTimestamp: 00:00 - Intro01:07 - Napoli’s fantastic start01:40 - Our rough grades for Napoli’s window03:04 - Lack of minutes for new players05:26 - A more Conservative defensive style06:28 - Grades are not based on 7 games 08:02  - Low shot quality in Serie A10:53 - Lack of depth in attack for Napoli limits their title threat?11:58 - Napoli’s advantage with no European Competition14:50 - Where will they finish?16:12 - Inter’s erratic start to the season17:22 - The most balanced team in Serie A?18:58 - Inter’s defensive shift19:20 - Can the oldest team in Serie A keep this up?21:31 - Marcus Thuram22:39 - Do Inter need to share minutes more?25:19 - Could they switch styles later in the year?26:55 - Predictions for Inter’s season27:17 - Lazio’s surprising start28:41 - unexpected names contributing for Lazio31:10 - Marco Baroni’s influence35:43 - Are fringe European teams to conservative with their coaching hires?39:12 - Thomas Tuchel’s training stories and how coaches influence their players42:36 - Analytics only matter if you can translate them into simple messages45:15 - Milan shake off a rough start47:14 - Favorable matchups coming up47:57 - Pulisic playing well and staying healthy49:38 - Rafael Leao’s Attacking threat51:47 - Using avoidance strategies to change player behaviors

On this episode, Patrick and Ravi discuss Dani Carvajal's injury and potential replacements that Real Madrid should consider. Can they get Trent Alexander-Arnold to come over, or should they look elsewhere? They then get into Chelsea's front line and which combinations of players is best for their team. Next, Manchester City's Director of Football Txiki Begiristain is set to leave, who are the likely hires with Pep's departure looming. Finally, Paul Pogba suspension was reduced, where are the likely landing spots for the 31-year-old Italian midfielder? Enjoy!Ted's article on potential Toni Kroos replacements: https://www.thetransferflow.com/p/kroos-ify-meSubscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribeJoin Variance Betting: https://www.thetransferflow.com/upgradeFollow us on our Socials:Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1QX: https://x.com/TheTransferFlowInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcastTimestamps: 00:00 - Intro00:46 - Dani Carvajal's injury01:34 - Specifics of the injury04:50 - Carvajal's 1 year extension05:23 - Solutions for Real Madrid05:57 - A leadership gap07:33 - Can Madrid lure Trent Alexander-Arnold?10:03 - Hakimi as an option at RB12:50 - Sliding Militao over from CB?15:16 - Other candidates at RB17:55 - Will Kroos unretire?18:20 - Unresolved Vini Jr/Mbappe problems19:55 - Who should play in Chelsea's front line?24:29 - The disadvantage of signing the best players from smaller sides?26:26 - Where does Nkunku fit in?27:23 - Can players change their pressing style?30:18 - Joao Felix's adaptability31:02 - What happens against better sides?32:33 - City lose their Director of Football, Txiki Begiristain33:24 - How did Txiki perform?36:17 - Potential replacements39:09 - How does a DoF influence the rest of the back room?42:47 - Will the next DoF be more powerful with Pep likely gone?45:38 - Paul Pogba's suspension reduced46:12 - Where might Pogba end up?48:38 - Is MLS an option?50:20 - Could he stay in Italy?51:28 - Playing Pogba as a 1053:16 - Taking a smaller contract to entice bigger teams

On this Episode, Ted and Patrick do a deep dive on Brentford's fast starts to game and how teams are undervaluing set pieces. They then move to discussion on playing out of the back, which has caused issues for many teams to start the season. Next, they move to Bayern Munich's recent games and their high defensive line looking fragile. To end, the move to quick hits on Real Madrid's injury situation and their need to spend big in the winter window, Micky van de Ven struggle in Spurs' loss to to Brighton, and Cole Palmer during Chelsea's 1-1 draw with Forest. Enjoy!Subscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribeJoin Variance Betting: https://www.thetransferflow.com/upgradeFollow us on our Socials:Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1QX: https://x.com/TheTransferFlowInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcastTimestamps:00:00 - Intro01:18 - Brentford have solved Football01:54 - Set Pieces and Ted's history with them and Brentford06:33 - Brentford has applied this to kickoffs08:28 - Is it sustainable?09:22 - Zdeněk Zeman10:22 - Team's undervaluing set pieces13:21 - The biggest differences between a corner and a long-throw in16:17 - How the fast starts have helped Brentford19:54 - Principles to watch on set pieces22:49 - Football being influenced by other sports25:33 - Short goal kick equilibrium26:16 - Daryl Morey's thoughts on short Goal kicks28:27 - Forcing other teams to adapt to your style28:51 - The end of short goal kicks?33:09 - Teams that adapt faster will benefit33:17 - Bayern's recent struggles35:13 - Omar Marmoush's good form36:24 - Bayern's high line is vulnerable39:03 - Pep's ability to kill off games40:39 - Will Kompany be able to learn?43:04 - Real Madrid's injuries and the Winter window43:49 - Madrid are missing Kroos44:15 - Petar Sucic as a Kimmich-like45:35 - van de Ven and Spurs vs Brighton47:07 - Mitoma's = Bukayo Saka?48:45 - The Welbeck winner and 2 amazing assists from the weekend49:15 - Chelsea vs Forest and Cole Palmer

Ted Knutson, former professional gambler, explains his Premier League Matchday 7 picks. Subscribe for more!Join Variance Betting: https://www.thetransferflow.com/upgradeSubscribe to our FREE newsletter:https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribeMore on Asian Handicap betting: https://www.betshoot.com/betting-guides/asian-handicap-betting/Follow us on our Socials:Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1QX: https://x.com/TheTransferFlowInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcastTimestamps:00:00 Intro00:54 Asian Handicap betting explained4:23 Newsletter5:39 Crystal Palace v Liverpool6:42 Leicester City v Bournemouth7:57 Arsenal v Southampton9:11 Brentford v Wolves10:07 West Ham v Ipswich12:24 Man City v Fulham14:15 Everton v Newcastle15:48 Chelsea v Nottingham Forest17:22 Aston Villa v Man United19:30 Brighton v Spurs21:25 Outro

Patrick and Ravi discuss Arsenal's win over PSG, Dortmund's demolition of Celtic, and Barcelona's loss to Osasuna. They further analyse Dortmund's managerial situation, Barca's incredible youth integration, and Arsenal's defensive tendencies. Enjoy!Subscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribeJoin Variance Betting: https://www.thetransferflow.com/upgradeFollow us on our Socials:Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1QX: https://x.com/TheTransferFlowInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcastTimestamps00:00 Episode Overview00:23 Intro2:35 Arsenal v PSG Review3:08 Lineup Reaction6:07 Tactical Breakdown8:35 Absence of Dembele9:14 PSG creating identity10:27 Arsenal’s dominant defence13:15 Are Arsenal too defensive?17:10 Dortmund v Celtic Review22:51 Dortmund under Sahin26:31 Will Dortmund sack Sahin?28:30 Barcelona’s loss to Osasuna30:08 How to properly rotate your squad38:56 Champions League format thoughts40:00 La Masia player integration46:58 Are some positions easier to break into?54:25 Outro