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The Transfer Flow Podcast
Episode 35 - EPL Roundup: Top 6 Predictions, Relegation Battles, and Teams the Table Is Lying About
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On this episode, Ted and Patrick discuss all things Premier League related from the start of the season. They begin with teams that should be higher or lower than their current position in the table. Next, they decide which of the 4 relegation candidates will stay up. And finally, both Patrick and Ted give their predictions for the Top 6. Where do you think Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester City, Chelsea, Manchester United, Tottenham, and the rest of the Premier League will finish?
Sebastian's guest newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/p/3-young-attacking-mids-on-the-rise
Ted's preseason gambling podcast: https://youtu.be/keg7HlCXPwE
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Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Intro
00:02:34 - Who is the premier league table lying about right now?
00:02:41 - Newcastle United
00:05:37 - Giving honest takes vs driving engagement
00:06:31 - The table of justice
00:07:16 - Tottenham should be slightly better
00:08:03 - Spurs are playing like a Bundesliga team
00:09:12 - Exciting young pieces
00:11:03 - Where are they likely to finish?
00:12:44 - Bournemouth are better than the Table says
00:14:30 - Optimism for Everton
00:15:10 - Guest Newsletter authors
00:15:45 - Dwight McNeil’s blossoming role
00:18:11 - A Cash injection this January can fix their issues
00:19:02 - Everton fans should be happy with the takeover
00:21:35 - Manchester United’s rough start
00:22:36 - The Model’s take on United before the season
00:24:34 - United don’t tolerate long processes
00:26:20 - United fans who have never seen the good times
00:27:12 - Of the 4 candidates, who will get relegated?
00:27:27 - Ipswich
00:29:30 - Wolves
00:31:40 - Patrick’s prediction to stay up
00:32:43 - Leicester’s 5 point advantage
00:34:06 - the difficulty making a case for any of these teams
00:36:30 - What the gambling markets say
00:38:50 - Predicting the top 6
00:39:11 - factoring in a potential punishment for City
00:41:23 - Patrick’s top 4
00:42:40 - Talent goes a long way
00:44:56 - Patrick’s title winner
00:48:07 - Patrick’s 2nd place team
00:52:39 - 3rd place
00:56:48 - Debating the Last Champions League spot
00:59:57 - Patrick’s 5th and 6th place
01:00:24 - What the betting markets say
01:01:46 - Ted’s top 6
01:03:26 - When we’ll check back in on our predictions
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Episode 34 - Breaking Down Serie A’s Top Contenders: Can Conte and Napoli win the title, should Inter be the favorites, and are Lazio Legit?
54:44|On this episode, Patrick and Ravi do a deep dive on the top teams in Serie A. They start with Napoli, who are top of the table despite what may have been the worst transfer window of any team. Next is Inter and their hopes back-to-back titles. Can they pull it off again despite an aging squad? Then comes Lazio, whose unconventional approach to players and manager hires sparks an interesting discussion on high variance teams. Last comes Milan, who almost sacked manager Paulo Fonseca early in the year, but have stabilized to be just 5 points out of first place. Enjoy!Subscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribeJoin Variance Betting: https://www.thetransferflow.com/upgradeFollow us on our Socials:Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1QX: https://x.com/TheTransferFlowInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcastTimestamp: 00:00 - Intro01:07 - Napoli’s fantastic start01:40 - Our rough grades for Napoli’s window03:04 - Lack of minutes for new players05:26 - A more Conservative defensive style06:28 - Grades are not based on 7 games 08:02 - Low shot quality in Serie A10:53 - Lack of depth in attack for Napoli limits their title threat?11:58 - Napoli’s advantage with no European Competition14:50 - Where will they finish?16:12 - Inter’s erratic start to the season17:22 - The most balanced team in Serie A?18:58 - Inter’s defensive shift19:20 - Can the oldest team in Serie A keep this up?21:31 - Marcus Thuram22:39 - Do Inter need to share minutes more?25:19 - Could they switch styles later in the year?26:55 - Predictions for Inter’s season27:17 - Lazio’s surprising start28:41 - unexpected names contributing for Lazio31:10 - Marco Baroni’s influence35:43 - Are fringe European teams to conservative with their coaching hires?39:12 - Thomas Tuchel’s training stories and how coaches influence their players42:36 - Analytics only matter if you can translate them into simple messages45:15 - Milan shake off a rough start47:14 - Favorable matchups coming up47:57 - Pulisic playing well and staying healthy49:38 - Rafael Leao’s Attacking threat51:47 - Using avoidance strategies to change player behaviorsEpisode 33 - Who should Real Madrid sign to replace Dani Carvajal, Chelsea’s Attacking Dilemma, Manchester City Lose Their Director of Football, and What’s Next for Paul Pogba?
54:45|On this episode, Patrick and Ravi discuss Dani Carvajal's injury and potential replacements that Real Madrid should consider. Can they get Trent Alexander-Arnold to come over, or should they look elsewhere? They then get into Chelsea's front line and which combinations of players is best for their team. Next, Manchester City's Director of Football Txiki Begiristain is set to leave, who are the likely hires with Pep's departure looming. Finally, Paul Pogba suspension was reduced, where are the likely landing spots for the 31-year-old Italian midfielder? Enjoy!Ted's article on potential Toni Kroos replacements: https://www.thetransferflow.com/p/kroos-ify-meSubscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribeJoin Variance Betting: https://www.thetransferflow.com/upgradeFollow us on our Socials:Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1QX: https://x.com/TheTransferFlowInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcastTimestamps: 00:00 - Intro00:46 - Dani Carvajal's injury01:34 - Specifics of the injury04:50 - Carvajal's 1 year extension05:23 - Solutions for Real Madrid05:57 - A leadership gap07:33 - Can Madrid lure Trent Alexander-Arnold?10:03 - Hakimi as an option at RB12:50 - Sliding Militao over from CB?15:16 - Other candidates at RB17:55 - Will Kroos unretire?18:20 - Unresolved Vini Jr/Mbappe problems19:55 - Who should play in Chelsea's front line?24:29 - The disadvantage of signing the best players from smaller sides?26:26 - Where does Nkunku fit in?27:23 - Can players change their pressing style?30:18 - Joao Felix's adaptability31:02 - What happens against better sides?32:33 - City lose their Director of Football, Txiki Begiristain33:24 - How did Txiki perform?36:17 - Potential replacements39:09 - How does a DoF influence the rest of the back room?42:47 - Will the next DoF be more powerful with Pep likely gone?45:38 - Paul Pogba's suspension reduced46:12 - Where might Pogba end up?48:38 - Is MLS an option?50:20 - Could he stay in Italy?51:28 - Playing Pogba as a 1053:16 - Taking a smaller contract to entice bigger teamsEpisode 32 - Brentford Solved Football, Bayern's Fragile Defence, Real Madrid's Injuries, and the End of Short Goal Kicks?
52:42|On this Episode, Ted and Patrick do a deep dive on Brentford's fast starts to game and how teams are undervaluing set pieces. They then move to discussion on playing out of the back, which has caused issues for many teams to start the season. Next, they move to Bayern Munich's recent games and their high defensive line looking fragile. To end, the move to quick hits on Real Madrid's injury situation and their need to spend big in the winter window, Micky van de Ven struggle in Spurs' loss to to Brighton, and Cole Palmer during Chelsea's 1-1 draw with Forest. Enjoy!Subscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribeJoin Variance Betting: https://www.thetransferflow.com/upgradeFollow us on our Socials:Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1QX: https://x.com/TheTransferFlowInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcastTimestamps:00:00 - Intro01:18 - Brentford have solved Football01:54 - Set Pieces and Ted's history with them and Brentford06:33 - Brentford has applied this to kickoffs08:28 - Is it sustainable?09:22 - Zdeněk Zeman10:22 - Team's undervaluing set pieces13:21 - The biggest differences between a corner and a long-throw in16:17 - How the fast starts have helped Brentford19:54 - Principles to watch on set pieces22:49 - Football being influenced by other sports25:33 - Short goal kick equilibrium26:16 - Daryl Morey's thoughts on short Goal kicks28:27 - Forcing other teams to adapt to your style28:51 - The end of short goal kicks?33:09 - Teams that adapt faster will benefit33:17 - Bayern's recent struggles35:13 - Omar Marmoush's good form36:24 - Bayern's high line is vulnerable39:03 - Pep's ability to kill off games40:39 - Will Kompany be able to learn?43:04 - Real Madrid's injuries and the Winter window43:49 - Madrid are missing Kroos44:15 - Petar Sucic as a Kimmich-like45:35 - van de Ven and Spurs vs Brighton47:07 - Mitoma's = Bukayo Saka?48:45 - The Welbeck winner and 2 amazing assists from the weekend49:15 - Chelsea vs Forest and Cole Palmer
Variance Betting Episode 5 | Why I'm Betting AGAINST Chelsea
22:10|Ted Knutson, former professional gambler, explains his Premier League Matchday 7 picks. Subscribe for more!Join Variance Betting: https://www.thetransferflow.com/upgradeSubscribe to our FREE newsletter:https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribeMore on Asian Handicap betting: https://www.betshoot.com/betting-guides/asian-handicap-betting/Follow us on our Socials:Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1QX: https://x.com/TheTransferFlowInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcastTimestamps:00:00 Intro00:54 Asian Handicap betting explained4:23 Newsletter5:39 Crystal Palace v Liverpool6:42 Leicester City v Bournemouth7:57 Arsenal v Southampton9:11 Brentford v Wolves10:07 West Ham v Ipswich12:24 Man City v Fulham14:15 Everton v Newcastle15:48 Chelsea v Nottingham Forest17:22 Aston Villa v Man United19:30 Brighton v Spurs21:25 OutroEpisode 31 - Arsenal Dominate PSG, Barcelona's Youth Integration, and Dortmund's Managerial Situation
57:12|Patrick and Ravi discuss Arsenal's win over PSG, Dortmund's demolition of Celtic, and Barcelona's loss to Osasuna. They further analyse Dortmund's managerial situation, Barca's incredible youth integration, and Arsenal's defensive tendencies. Enjoy!Subscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribeJoin Variance Betting: https://www.thetransferflow.com/upgradeFollow us on our Socials:Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1QX: https://x.com/TheTransferFlowInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcastTimestamps00:00 Episode Overview00:23 Intro2:35 Arsenal v PSG Review3:08 Lineup Reaction6:07 Tactical Breakdown8:35 Absence of Dembele9:14 PSG creating identity10:27 Arsenal’s dominant defence13:15 Are Arsenal too defensive?17:10 Dortmund v Celtic Review22:51 Dortmund under Sahin26:31 Will Dortmund sack Sahin?28:30 Barcelona’s loss to Osasuna30:08 How to properly rotate your squad38:56 Champions League format thoughts40:00 La Masia player integration46:58 Are some positions easier to break into?54:25 OutroEpisode 30 - Cole Palmer is a Superstar + it's time for Ten Hag to go
59:08|Patrick and Ted discuss the best way for Manchester United to move on from Erik Ten Hag and debate whether Cole Palmer is currently the best player in the Premier League. They also analyse the Madrid Derby and do a deep dive on Bayern Munich under new manager Vincent Kompany. Enjoy!Subscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribeJoin Variance Betting: https://www.thetransferflow.com/upgradeFollow us on our Socials:Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1QX: https://x.com/TheTransferFlowInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcastTimestamps:00:00 Episode Overview00:36 Intro1:46 Bayern vs Leverkusen review4:30 Bayern going under the radar6:55 Match breakdown9:47 Kompany’s impact11:30 The Pep Guardiola Effect13:52 Man United vs Spurs Review18:58 United’s terrible midfield19:32 Spurs looking dangerous19:54 Ten Hag and Man United’s summer recruitment23:56 Man United’s new manager hunt40:59 Chelsea’s start to the season43:34 How not to play out from the back44:43 Nicolas Jackson’s hot start45:00 Is Cole Palmer the best player in the League?51:00 James Justin golazo51:30 Madrid Derby Review56:17 Outro57:42 Variance Betting Subscription updateEpisode 29 - How Man City Replace Rodri, Barcelona Flying While Real Madrid Stars Lack Chemistry
01:01:53|Patrick and Ravi discuss how Man City can cope without Rodri, potential replacements, and a La Liga Roundup. They analyse Barcelona's strong start to the season, Real Madrid's start studded squad, Atletico Madrid's solid defence, and ownership issues in the league. Enjoy!Subscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribeJoin Variance Betting: https://www.thetransferflow.com/upgradeFollow us on our Socials:Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1QX: https://x.com/TheTransferFlowInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcastTimestamps:00:00 Episode overview00:37 Intro1:53 Barcelona’s surprising form2:30 Ter Stegan’s injury & replacements9:09 Can Barcelona hold off Real Madrid?13:16 Real Madrid’s recent form15:44 Lacking balance in midfield17:42 Madrid’s stacked attack20:50 Concerns about defence22:40 Atletico Madrid’s Strengths & Weaknesses26:25 Analysing Atleti’s solid defence29:13 Valencia’s struggles31:40 Sevilla’s ownership issues32:56 Valencia under Peter Lim37:22 Rodri ACL injury41:40 Impact on Man City43:15 How can City cope?47:10 What solution will Pep come up wIth?50:18 Potential Rodri replacements1:00:45 OutroEpisode 28 - Pep Screwed Up, Arsenal's Set-Pieces, and Luis Diaz's Improvement
47:37|Patrick and Ted discuss how Pep Guardiola didn't take advantage of Arsenal going down to 10 men, Danny Welbeck's rejuvenation, and Luis Diaz's improvement. They also recap all the other action from this weekend's Premier League games, including West Ham's horrible defence, and a deep dive into Arsenal's set-pieces. Enjoy!Subscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribeJoin Variance Betting: https://www.thetransferflow.com/upgradeFollow us on our Socials:Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1QX: https://x.com/TheTransferFlowInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcast00:00 Episode Overview00:30 Intro1:47 Crystal Palace v Manchester United Review4:24 Thoughts on Zirkzee6:33 United’s Improved Defence7:37 Man City vs Arsenal Review9:17 Calafiori Golazo10:51 Gabriel Goal & Arsenal Set Pieces15:40 Second Half Analysis18:03 Arsenal Defence21:38 West Ham v Chelsea Review22:32 Thoughts on Lopetegui24:38 West Ham Defensive Issues27:44 Fulham v Newcastle Review32:45 Liverpool v Bournemouth36:00 Luis Diaz Improvement37:30 Brighton v Nottingham38:25 Goals Analysis40:28 Danny Welbeck Rejuvenation 41:40 Refereeing In Premier League43:28 Brighton Being A Young Arsenal44:30 Weekend Recap46:30 Outro