The Transfer Flow Podcast

Patrick and Ted discuss the best way for Manchester United to move on from Erik Ten Hag and debate whether Cole Palmer is currently the best player in the Premier League. They also analyse the Madrid Derby and do a deep dive on Bayern Munich under new manager Vincent Kompany. Enjoy!Subscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribeJoin Variance Betting: https://www.thetransferflow.com/upgradeFollow us on our Socials:Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1QX: https://x.com/TheTransferFlowInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcastTimestamps:00:00 Episode Overview00:36 Intro1:46 Bayern vs Leverkusen review4:30 Bayern going under the radar6:55 Match breakdown9:47 Kompany’s impact11:30 The Pep Guardiola Effect13:52 Man United vs Spurs Review18:58 United’s terrible midfield19:32 Spurs looking dangerous19:54 Ten Hag and Man United’s summer recruitment23:56 Man United’s new manager hunt40:59 Chelsea’s start to the season43:34 How not to play out from the back44:43 Nicolas Jackson’s hot start45:00 Is Cole Palmer the best player in the League?51:00 James Justin golazo51:30 Madrid Derby Review56:17 Outro57:42 Variance Betting Subscription update

Patrick and Ravi discuss how Man City can cope without Rodri, potential replacements, and a La Liga Roundup. They analyse Barcelona's strong start to the season, Real Madrid's start studded squad, Atletico Madrid's solid defence, and ownership issues in the league. Enjoy!Subscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribeJoin Variance Betting: https://www.thetransferflow.com/upgradeFollow us on our Socials:Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1QX: https://x.com/TheTransferFlowInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcastTimestamps:00:00 Episode overview00:37 Intro1:53 Barcelona’s surprising form2:30 Ter Stegan’s injury & replacements9:09 Can Barcelona hold off Real Madrid?13:16 Real Madrid’s recent form15:44 Lacking balance in midfield17:42 Madrid’s stacked attack20:50 Concerns about defence22:40 Atletico Madrid’s Strengths & Weaknesses26:25 Analysing Atleti’s solid defence29:13 Valencia’s struggles31:40 Sevilla’s ownership issues32:56 Valencia under Peter Lim37:22 Rodri ACL injury41:40 Impact on Man City43:15 How can City cope?47:10 What solution will Pep come up wIth?50:18 Potential Rodri replacements1:00:45 Outro

Ted Knutson, former professional gambler, explains his Premier League Matchday 5 picks and why he is betting AGAINST Liverpool. Subscribe for more!Join Variance Betting: https://www.thetransferflow.com/upgradeSubscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribeFollow us on our Socials:Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1QX: https://x.com/TheTransferFlowInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcastTIMESTAMPS:00:00 Introduction00:45 Last Week Recap1:12 TheTransferFlow & VarianceBetting2:13 Closing Line Value6:11 Why Does It Matter?7:25 West Ham v Chelsea 9:17 Aston Villa v Wolves10:41 Fulham v Newcastle11:54 Leicester v Everton13:42 Southampton v Ipswich15:31 Liverpool v Bournemouth17:59 Spurs v Brentford19:31 Crystal Palace v Manchester United21:37 Brighton v Nottingham Forest22:37 Manchester City v Arsenal24:45 Championship Betting25:15 Conclusion

Ted and Ravi discuss Manchester City and Inter Milan's chances of winning the Champions League, changes to Erling Haaland's role, Barcelona's strong start and their expectations for the season. They then answer some listener questions which include discussions on player stocks, what to do when teams begin to figure you out, and a deep dive into the use of data to overturn some traditional football opinions.Subscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribeJoin Variance Betting: https://www.thetransferflow.com/upgradeFollow us on our Socials:Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1QX: https://x.com/TheTransferFlowInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcastTIMESTAMPS:00:00 Episode Overview00:33 Introduction2:38 Man City VS Inter Milan3:20 Inter in the UCL6:45 Man City’s UCL Squad7:45 Man City’s New Style Of Play12:50 New UCL Format18:32 Player Fatigue20:42 Barcelona As Contendors22:10 Dani Olmo & Barca Injuries23:35 Hansi Flick’s Bareclona25:35 Emergence of Youngsters27:17 Barcelona Expectations29:05 Biggest Changes Under Flick32:42 Barca’s UCL Schedule33:08 Most Entertaining Team33:42 Hansi Flick vs Xavi36:25 Players Stocks39:22 Stocks To Buy40:14 Bournemouth Under Iraola40:47 Teams Figuring You Out43:36 Two Halves of a Season46:30 Kieran McKenna47:15 Using Data To Overturn Traditional Opinions58:45 In Swinging Corners vs Out Swinging Corners1:03:16 Outro

Patrick and Ted start the episode by discussing the North London Derby and the weakness that Spurs continue to show in their midfield. Next, they move to Liverpool, who seemed to have fixed there defense, but were unable to get anything going offensively. After touching on City vs Brighton and United vs Southampton, they move to Newcastle's Internal power struggle, as Eddie Howe and Paul Mitchell compete for power. Finally, they end the episode with their thoughts on Chelsea vs Bournemouth (hint: not good) and West Ham vs Fulham. Enjoy!Subscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribeJoin Variance Betting: https://www.thetransferflow.com/upgradeFollow us on our Socials:Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1QX: https://x.com/TheTransferFlowInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcastTIMESTAMPS:00:00 - Intro03:28 - Arsenal vs. Spurs04:47 - The midfield battle06:30 - Spurs crosses were not effective07:38 - How teams can get value from crosses09:23 - Watching the ball vs. the man10:11 - Spurs' biggest weakness10:41 - The type of midfielder Spurs needed11:52 - More opportunities for mistakes13:40 - The evolution of pressing14:33 - Alexis Sanchez' pressing ability15:32 - Arsenal's plan this game18:39 - The launch of Variance Betting19:38 - Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest19:53 - High handicaps coming off international break20:43 - The signs of value of Nottingham Forest22:22 - Liverpool's defense continues to shine23:14 - Liverpool's offensive struggles25:05 - Ryan Gravenberch in a deeper role27:16 - Brentford vs. City28:11 - Thomas Frank as Manager31:12 - Brentford's possession #'s against City31:28 - City's lack of pressing32:05 - The problems Pep is facing34:20 - Manchester United vs Southampton35:37 - United's set piece goal36:40 - Tyler Dibling37:24 - Is Russell Martin's job safe?40:13 - Newcastle's internal conflict42:21 - Paul Mitchell vs Eddie Howe44:24 - Newcastle are doing well in the table44:46 - How do Newcastle mend things?46:06 - Chelsea vs Bournemouth47:17 - Subbing in Neto for Jadon Sancho48:09 - Bad signs for long-term success48:55 - Chelsea need a structured attack50:53 - West Ham vs Fulham51:37 - Danny Ings53:21 - Brighton vs Ipswich

Ted Knutson, former professional gambler, explains his best betting practices and discusses his Premier League Matchday 4 picks. Subscribe for more!Join Variance Betting: https://www.thetransferflow.com/upgradeSubscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribeFollow us on our Socials:Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1QX: https://x.com/TheTransferFlowInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcastTIMESTAMPS:00:00 Introduction1:44 Who is Ted Knutson?2:20 Working With Pinnacle.com Products3:26 Working at Brentford/Midtjylland & SmartOdds4:05 Founding StatsBomb4:25 Present Day — TheTransferFlow.com4:58 Variance Betting Principles5:21 Discount Bookies > Bonuses8:20 Price Shop10:37 Working with Models & Knowledge12:35 Why Early Season is Tricky13:54 Your Bets are your own14:47 Market Implied (MI) Model16:18 Be careful about Promoted Teams17:18 Expected Goals (xG) Model18:07 Caveats21:06 Plugs20:23 Recreational Sports Betting22:32 Brighton v Ipswich Bet23:52 Southampton v Man United Bet25:11 Crystal Palace v Leicester Bet26:02 Fulham v West Ham No Bet26:25 Liverpool v Nottingham Forest Bet27:25 Man City v Brentford No Bet28:35 Aston Villa v Everton No Bet29:46 Bournemouth v Chelsea Bet31:20 Spurs v Arsenal Bet32:39 Wolves v Newcastle No Bet33:31 Recap 33:54 Outro

Ted and Ravi start by discussing a controversial analytics take from someone that's a part of the community. Next, they talk about Chelsea's owner rift and the leaks that suggest a potential buyout may happen. They then get into discussion about Arsenal's injury situation with Martin Odegaard and Mikel Merino set to miss time. And finally, they wrap up with the MLS transfer window and all of the things that you need to know about that, including biggest additions and misses of the window.Subscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribeFollow us on our Socials:Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1QX: https://x.com/TheTransferFlowInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcastTIMESTAMPS:00:00 - Intro01:48 - Is analytics for player recruitment solved?03:18 - every action in football has 3 parts04:40 - You don't have data for everything06:15 - Difficulty at scale07:30 - Different level of information impacting decision makers09:48 - Evaluating players from lower leagues11:53 - Player factors impact on transfer success13:55 - Chelsea's ownership rift16:13 - Boehly joined and isntantly became Interim Sporting Director16:58 - Where this confidence comes from17:43 - 2 captains driving the boat19:52 - Football clubs run like investment funds21:46 - Blitzer and Harris make co-ownership work22:31 - Arsenal's injury situation23:59 - Small point loses feel insurmountable 25:04 - What would a long-term Odegaard injury mean?26:06 - Champions League format changes help26:29 - September International break29:18 - MLS window rules and time period30:21 - MLS is paying real money32:22 - Their offset window creates mismatches33:45 - Josh Sargent example35:17 - How MLS can fix this issue35:58 - Extra problems that come with overseas transfers37:48 - The profile of MLS Winter signings38:28 - NWSL eliminating the draft39:45 - MLS academies draining talent out of the draft41:12 - Balancing International roster spots42:13 - Big free agent signings - Giroud and Reus42:50 - Discovery Lists44:16 - Griezmann rumours47:15 - MLS connection with South/Latin America48:15 - Spurs weird deal for Johnny Cardoso49:20 - More additions to the MLS this year51:10 - Players the U.S. and Canada excel at creating52:26 - Deals that fell through because of the deadline mismatches

Ted and Ravi discuss the summer windows for Manchester United, Southampton, Tottenham, West Ham and Wolves. They start with United's expensive, but sensible, window and how their new signings may fit in the squad. Then comes newly promoted Southampton, who made additions at goalkeeper and to their defense in the hopes of staying up. Tottenham paid up for Dominic Solanke and Archie Gray, while West Ham spent too much on a number of different moves. Finally, we discuss Wolves window and what essentially feels like them playing the lottery. Ugarte Newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/p/manuel-ugarte-manchester-united-transfer-rumours-analysisSubscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribeFollow us on our Socials:Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1QX: https://x.com/TheTransferFlowInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcastTIMESTAMPS:00:00 Intro0:36 Man United Overview1:50 Man United Finishing Top 42:14 Squad Needing Change2:59 Resisting Overpaying3:58 Joshua Zirkzee4:11 De Ligt4:50 Too Many Ajax Players?5:16 Overpaying For Leny Yoro5:30 Window Review6:37 Manuel Ugarte8:00 United Outgoings11:10 Southampton Overview11:59 Aaron Ramsdale12:31 Making Loans Permanent13:02 Mateus Fernandes13:40 Yukinari Sugawara14:00 Brereton Diaz15:02 Some Confusing Signings15:40 Southampton Outgoings15:51 Southampton Overall Grade16:22 Spurs Overview16:56 Dominic Solanke18:30 Overpaying for youngsters?19:46 Incomings Grade19:52 Spurs Outgoings21:38 West Ham Overview22:30 Risky Transfer Strategy?23:42 Niclas Fullkrug26:19 Max Kilman26:45: Jean-Claire Todibo27:41 Wan-Bissaka &28:09: West Ham Outgoings28:42 Outgoing Grades28:57 Wolves Overview29:24 Wolves Outgoings29:39 Andre30:00 Sam Johnstone30:23 Strand Larsen31:36 Wolves Overall Grade32:21 Outro