The Ponsonby and Massie Podcast

Bernard Ponsonby and Alex Massie are joined by Paul Sweeney of Labour and Cllr Thomas Kerr of Reform UK to ask what the result means?Labour GAIN from SNP Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election resultLAB: 31.5% (-2.0) SNP: 29.4% (-16.8) REF: 26.2% (+26.2) CON: 6.0% (-11.5) GRN: 2.6% (+2.6) +/- 2021

On support for independence in poll: "54% of people supporting independence and 46 supporting the unionist status quo... a record high for Norstat in the last four or five years." — Alex MassieOn Reform UK's rise in poll: "Reform are plus four at 18%. And of course, when you translate all of this into seats, I mean, it is really quite extraordinary." — Bernard PonsonbyOn Labour's struggles: "If Labour are way, way, way behind the SNP... it would be a complete humiliation if they can't come second." — Bernard PonsonbyOn the SNP’s longevity: "By the time we go into the election next year the SNP will have been in government for 19 years. I mean, it really is embarrassing from the Labour Party's point of view." — Bernard PonsonbyOn Farage and political consistency: "Farage has just decided, I won't bother about the Tories... he's now going after Labour. But he's doing it not by enunciating what he really has traditionally believed." — Bernard PonsonbyOn Reform’s strength: "It is an expression of a sensibility of dissatisfaction with politics as they've been." — Alex MassieOn Labour’s disconnect: "The people Labour are really struggling with in Scotland are people who live on the housing estates... reform are now at around one in four in council housing." — Alex MassieOn race politics in the by-election: "Anybody who knows Anas Sarwar will know that he would not prioritise the interests of any community over the other." — Bernard PonsonbyOn Farage’s ignorance of Scotland: "I remember... he said, 'the SNP won that famous Falkirk by-election'... they didn't." — Bernard Ponsonby

Speculation is rife that the Deputy Prime Minister, Angela Rayner, will be privately pleased that details of her tax reform memo to Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, have been leaked to the Telegraph. Is she on manoeuvres and is she a credible candidate for the top job?AlsoThe SNP has criticised the Prime Minister's EU deal - but aren't these things that the SNP would need to agree to if they were to apply to rejoin the EU in an independent Scotland?And...Where is Labour's camera shy candidate for the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by election? He hasn't agreed to go on TV to debate the other candidates.

Bernard and Alex discuss the danger for Labour of dancing to the right-wing's tune on immigration. What does it mean? What (if anything) does Keir Starmer stand for? What does Labour now stand for?

SummaryIn this episode of the Ponsonby and Massie podcast, Bernard Ponsonby and Alex Massie discuss the recent program for government announced by John Swinney, analyzing its implications and the political landscape in Scotland. They explore the limited legislative agenda, the scrapping of peak fares, the promise of more GP appointments, and the shifting dynamics within the SNP. The conversation highlights the importance of engaging with the business community and the challenges faced by the government in addressing public needs while managing fiscal responsibilities. The conversation delves into the dynamics of Scottish politics, focusing on the importance of personal relationships in political negotiations, current polling trends, The implications of the rise of Reform UK. It also discusses the role of the Liberal Democrats as a refuge for discontented voters, draws historical parallels with the SDP Liberal Alliance, and addresses the contentious issue of gender recognition legislation. The economic outlook and its potential impact on political fortunes are also explored, highlighting the challenges and opportunities facing the Labour Party and the Conservative government.The program for government lacks substantial legislative content.John Swinney's leadership style emphasizes stability and pragmatism.The scrapping of peak fares is seen as a political strategy.Public transport funding raises questions about taxpayer burden.The promise of more GP appointments may not significantly impact healthcare access.Swinney's first year is viewed positively compared to his predecessors.Engagement with the business community is crucial for government success.The SNP's funding structure benefits from the Barnett formula.Political dynamics in Scotland are shifting under Swinney's leadership.The government faces challenges in prioritizing public spending effectively. Personal relationships in politics can significantly influence outcomes.Current polling shows a decline in support for the SNP and Tories.Reform UK's popularity may not sustain under scrutiny during elections.Voter sentiment often outweighs detailed policy platforms.The Liberal Democrats serve as an alternative for voters dissatisfied with major parties.Historical parallels exist between Reform UK and the SDP Liberal Alliance.Gender recognition issues are contentious and politically charged.Economic factors will play a crucial role in upcoming elections.Labour's challenges are compounded by internal dissatisfaction.The political landscape is fluid, with potential shifts in voter allegiance.Scottish government, John Swinney, legislative agenda, public transport, GP appointments, political strategy, SNP, Scotland, healthcare, business community, politics, polling, Reform UK, Liberal Democrats, gender recognition, economic outlook, Scottish elections, political relationships, public sentiment, electoral trends

In a week that saw Reform UK make seismic advances in the English Local Elections and the Runcorn & Helsby Parliamentary By Election, Bernard Ponsonby and Alex Massie deep dive into the current state of the parties in Scotland - one year from the 2026 Scottish Parliament Elections. What does the rise of Reform UK mean in Scotland, what are the implications of the coming Scottish Parliament By Election in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse and has Keir Starmer ultimately dug "Anas Sarwar's electoral grave"?

Bernard and Alex discuss:Religion's relevance today: They explore how religion is now more comfortably discussed by Scottish politicians compared to 20–30 years ago. There's a nuanced conversation about Scotland’s move from a heavily religious society to a secular one, and a new resurgence of faith among younger Scots.The gender recognition legal ruling: They analyse the fallout from the UK Supreme Court ruling and how politicians like John Swinney and Keir Starmer have been caught between public opinion and previous statements on gender identity.Swinney’s summit on extremism: They critique John Swinney’s call for political unity against the far-right, warning that mislabelling politicians like Nigel Farage as "fascist" risks backfiring and emboldening populism.Reform UK’s rise in Scotland: They suggest Reform’s growing support could fragment the anti-SNP vote, paradoxically helping the SNP win the upcoming by-election and Scottish Parliament election with even a modest share of the vote

Bernard and Alex consider today's ruling from the Supreme Court in which Lord Hodge said "The unanimous decision of this court is that the terms 'woman' and 'sex' in the Equality Act 2010 refer to a biological woman and biological sex." ​"Successive SNP-led Scottish Governments have championed gender reform and opined on the definition of a woman - as did other parties in the Scottish Parliament. Where does this leave them, and do they need to revisit previous policies?"PLUS HAMILTON, LARKHALL AND STONEHOUSEThe By Election date has been set. What challenges will the parties face. It's a real test for Labour before the 2026 Scottish Parliament Election. Will Reform UK perform well? GRANGEMOUTHIt's a political football but is it even feasible for Governments to privatise the business?

Bernard and Alex explain and analyse the significance of Donald Trump's international trade tariffs and how it might affect you personally in everything from the cost of goods to your pension. Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariff offensive has triggered market turmoil and reignited fears of a full-blown trade war, with the FTSE 100 plummeting and central banks scrambling to respond. Trump’s protectionist policies — including steep tariffs on key trading partners such as the EU, UK, China, and Vietnam — are driving up consumer prices, fuelling inflation, and risking a global recession. Despite claims of “economic patriotism”, experts argue these tariffs amount to a form of self-inflicted economic harm, unravelling decades of free trade orthodoxy. Retaliatory tariffs, rising import costs, and disrupted supply chains are hitting exporters hard, with industries from Scotch whisky to fighter jet components feeling the sting. Critics warn this tit-for-tat tariff spiral could destabilise the world economy, weaken Western alliances, and hand geopolitical leverage to China — all in pursuit of a misguided vision of industrial revival. With headlines dominated by market shocks, IMF warnings, and international backlash, Trump’s trade war may be remembered as a high-stakes gamble with devastating global consequences.PLUS Scottish Conservatives keep resigning - but for contradictory reasons. Some think the party is too far to the left, others think it is too far to the right. Which is it?Scottish Greens Co-Leader, Patrick Harvie, is set to step down after 17 years. Has he been effective as a politician?