The Ponsonby and Massie Podcast

With 3 weeks until the Scottish Parliament Elections 2026, leading pollster, Mark Diffley, joins Bernard and Alex with the latest insights. What are the latest polls saying?Why there is much to play for in marginal seats?How vote share translates to seats and the big changes that can come from small marginsWhich seats to watch for upsets?

New polls suggest the SNP remains on course to win comfortably, but key questions remain over whether John Swinney secures a majority or must rely on support from other parties.Is Reform UK Scotland losing some momentum, with recent polling and campaign controversies raising doubts about whether it can sustain earlier advances.Sunday’s televised leaders’ debate is especially high-stakes for Malcolm Offord, while Anas Sarwar, John Swinney and Russell Findlay each face different political and performance pressures.After the election the real challenge may be Scotland’s fiscal crunch, with all parties accused of avoiding hard truths about spending, deficits and the affordability of manifesto promises.

The Scottish Parliament is winding up ahead of the election in May. Is there any chance of a real upset ofr is it another SNP shoo-in?

Reform UK Scotland manifesto launchPresented as the first major manifesto of the 2026 election campaignFramed as more about political messaging than a detailed governing programmeTax cuts versus realityBig promises on cutting income taxStrong scepticism about whether the sums add up or the savings are deliverableManifestos as political brandingDiscussion that modern manifestos are often just headline documentsCostings are often vague once properly examinedLaw and order agendaReform proposals on tougher sentencing, more prisons, ending early release, and scrapping hate crime lawsArgument that these policies are popular-sounding but very expensivePressure on Scottish public financesWider discussion that all parties face a difficult fiscal backdropConcerns about long-term affordability of spending promises and welfare growthReform’s electoral strategy and vulnerabilitiesReform portrayed as a home for angry or disillusioned votersBut also as vulnerable to scrutiny, weak candidates, and campaign mistakesCandidate controversyMention of a Reform candidate being suspended over alleged Covid loan misuseUsed as an example of how election campaigns expose candidate problemsAssisted dying vote at HolyroodReview of the bill being defeatedFocus on lobbying, safeguards, and why MSPs may have changed positionParliament doing its jobArgument that rejecting a bill after detailed scrutiny is part of how democracy should workEmphasis on lawmakers judging the actual legislation, not just the principleWar in Iran and economic falloutThe conflict presented as the biggest external event shaping politicsConcern about its effects on oil, gas, inflation, and wider economic stabilityRisk of a new cost-of-living crisisDiscussion of rising energy bills, persistent mortgage pressure, and fewer hopes of interest-rate cutsQuestion of whether the UK is heading into “cost of living crisis part two”Keir Starmer, Rachel Reeves and Labour instabilityDiscussion of shrinking fiscal headroom and pressure on the governmentSpeculation about Starmer’s future and Angela Rayner positioning herself for a leadership moveA broader failure of political honestyFinal theme that politicians are not being frank with voters about the scale of the economic problemsSuggestion that leadership across politics is avoiding hard truths

On the eve of the SNP's one day conference ahead of the Scottish Parliament elections in May, the party looks like winning on around a third of the vote but with little talk of Independence. What now for the SNP? Bernard Ponsonby and Alex Massie discuss.

The conflict in Iran has given cover to a lot of stories in the news this week but Bernard and Alex are on watch. Sally Donald has stood down as an SNP candidate amid allegations and the candidacy and position of Irshad Ahmad on the Labour Lothian list is drawing controversy. A warning for all parties that there may be more to come. Also, the challenges facing the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves.