The Other Hand

Irish inflation this week confirmed that the economy is showing few, if any, obvious signs of overheating. Prices are still going. up but at their slowest pace in a long while. That said, prices are 20% higher than we saw pre-pandemic. Memo to economists: don't pretend you know what causes inflation.European interest rates are still too high.When does government debt matter? 100% of GDP? 300% of GDP? As always, it all depends! But the US is adding to its debt in a most reckless and unsustainable manner.The Draghi report is worth reading at least twice. It is incredibly hard hitting. Europe's economy is falling far behind the US. His message to Euope's policymakers: do whatever it takes to catch up. Otherwise, the European project risks failure.

In this podcast special Jim talks with Alex Denning, a 25 year old racing superstar.The business of modern racing is all about money, contacts and driving talent - in that order.Alex talks about doing exactly what his parents didn't want him to do. Making it with McLaren!But it costs anything between 5-15 million to break into Formula 1. Sometimes more - your dad has to buy the car company!Want. to lose weight? Forget about Ozempic - drive a McLaren very fast for lots of laps and you will be a lot slimmer.Alex gives us a young person's perspective on life in Ireland. And on things UK, French and Italian (the French are rude and unwelcoming. Italian driving habits are very strange)EVs are losing traction. Why?And much more. Enjoy!

To the surprise of many observers, Europe's top court has told Apple it must pay Ireland €13.1 billion in back taxes.In a case that dates back to 2016, it's partly a history lesson about dodgy practices - the double Irish and all that. Those days are long gone.But there is also an investment lesson here, one that is not just of historical interest. The outcome of the original investment was €14.8 billion became €13.1 billion, thanks to the original purchase of negative yielding government bonds. If the disputed taxes had been parked in Apple shares, the Irish government would today be in receipt of around €100 billion. Investment decisions are always massively consequential. Where to invest the €13.1 billion now?

Latest jobs numbers from the US point to a weakening economy. Interest rate cuts are on the way. The only question is, 'how big?'European elites are warning that Europe could cease to exist in its current from unless radical remedial action is taken. Few politicians will lsiten. If they do, they won't act.

Still drowning in cash, the new Finance Minister is warned by IFAC, yet again, not to spend it. Are the fiscal giveaways of past budgets really costing each household €1000 a year? Amidst all the cries of 'they are windfall taxes' it's forgotten that capital investment is - or should be - very different to current spending. We used to argue about borrowing for investment purposes - economists have always pointed that that borrowing for investment is perfectly ok, provided the return on that investment is higher than the cost. Now, some seem to be arguing that spending money that we already have, windfall or otherwise, still shouldn't be spent, even on high return projects. There's crying wolf and then just being daft.GDP data is all over the place and has defeated us. Exchequer returns and other data point to an economy still growing although not one that is overheating. Tax revenues are booming and unemployment is down again.

J D Vance has shot to prominence following his selection by Donald Trump to be, potentially, the next Vice President of the US.In this podcast special, we focus on Vance's 2016 best-selling memoir, Hillbilly Elegy, to try and explain and understand the man who clearly wants, one day, to be the leader of the free world.We are joined by Professor Shane O'Mara of Trinity College Dublin to discuss all things JDV. And there really is a lot to discuss! Shane is also a best-selling author (of much better books than JDV's memoir) and writes his own Substack called BrainPizza. Do check out any of his works, especially his most recent book, 'Talking Heads: The New Science of How Conversation Shapes Our Worlds'.

The upcoming budget is thought likely to include changes - increases - to tax breaks on pensions and a rise in inheritance tax thresholds. We both agree that helping millionaire pensioners with even more tax breaks is nuts. But we disagree sharply about the wisdom of inheritance taxes. These are incredibly emotive topics. As our discussion shows!The Other Hand always welcomes feedback - good, bad or indifferent. We share a particularly interesting perspective from one listener. Ireland's population continues to soar. But people are moving in and out.

Ireland has just set a new record for the number of people in employment. Back in the day, you either worked on the farm, civil service, domestic service or emigrated (only slightly simplified). If you had accurately forecast the relentless fall in agriculture-related jobs over the past decades you would have also forecast an overall economic disaster - one that did not happen. There were plenty of bad times of course but you would not have expected rapidly growing population and job numbers in 2024.Artificial Intelligence also threatens a jobs apocalypse. But maybe there are lessons to be learned from Ireland's economic transformation.Kamala Harris has promised a 28% tax rate. Do we take her literally or seriously? If delivered it could BOOST Ireland's corporation tax revenues. There again, Trump wants to reduce it to 15%, a clear threat to those revenues. And, of course, neither might happen.Everyone is paying too much attention to policy proposals and not enough to the vibe.