The Global Gambit

Trump says he has secured a major breakthrough with Iran, but is the deal even worse than many are already claiming? And are details taking so long to release?Joining me today is Ian Bremmer, founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media, to discuss the emerging US-Iran agreement, why many analysts remain sceptical, and whether Washington is actually in a weaker position than before the conflict began.We examine the future of the Iran deal, sanctions relief, the Strait of Hormuz, Trump's foreign policy decision-making, growing divisions within the Middle East, China's expanding influence, and what all of this means for the balance of power in the region and beyond. We also discuss Europe, the G7, Russia, and the increasingly strained relationship between America and its allies.

Senator Mark Kelly just returned from Odessa. His verdict: Ukraine has effectively shut down the Russian Navy in the Black Sea — Russia can't operate there anymore.Crimea is next.Full conversation with the Senator on what he saw on the ground, the momentum shift, and why Putin is running out of options.Senator Mark Kelly is a retired Navy combat pilot, NASA astronaut, and sitting US Senator for Arizona serving on the Armed Services and Intelligence Committees.

Ukraine just struck Putin's hometown during the St Petersburg Economic Forum. Is this a genuine shift in momentum or another false dawn in a war that keeps defying predictions?Dan Ridler, Senior Analyst for Europe at the Economist Intelligence Unit, joins to cut through the noise. We get into how the EIU actually forecasts war outcomes, why the battlefield probably won't decide this conflict, what the frozen conflict scenario gets wrong, and the one underappreciated path toward peace that most analysts are missing.Plus — how do you verify Russian economic data when Moscow keeps hiding it? And what's the single biggest variable that will determine where this war goes next?

America is in a moment of self-inflicted crisis — and the man responsible may not be able to find a way out. Trump has started a war he promised he wouldn't, fractured his own base, and tied his political fate to every price rise and policy failure.In this episode, I speak with Tom Nichols about why Trump's domestic troubles are uniquely of his own making, what the Iran war reveals about the collapse of MAGA's anti-interventionist promise, and whether the Republican Party can survive the contradictions Trump has created. We also explore what all of this means for Ukraine, Russia's future, and American power on the world stage.Tom Nichols is a staff writer at The Atlantic and Professor Emeritus at the U.S. Naval War College.

The ceasefire may have slowed the fighting - but according to former JCPOA adviser Alan Eyre, the underlying dynamics between the United States, Iran, and Israel have barely changed at all.In this conversation, we break down why the US-Iran talks remain stuck at “square one,” why Tehran believes time is on its side, and why the current pause in hostilities could simply be the calm before another round of escalation.Alan Eyre is Distinguished Diplomatic Fellow at the Middle East Institute. 

Donald Trump's war with Iran is the reflection of something much bigger, perhaps much worse, happening with the USA, its foreign policy and its standing in the evolving world order. Can the United States still impose political outcomes abroad without triggering wider economic, geopolitical, and strategic blowback?In this part 1 of 2 Retired Australian Major General Mick Ryan joins The Global Gambit to break down the dangerous new phase of the US-Iran conflict, why Trump’s strategy may be backfiring, and what this confrontation reveals about the future of American power. From escalation traps and nuclear deterrence to China’s growing advantage and the global economic fallout, this conversation explores why the Iran crisis is about far more than just the Middle East.

Global democracy is changing and Hungary’s election may signal more than just a political shift — it could mark the beginning of a broader democratic rebound.In this episode, I speak with Katherine Stewart about whether the world is moving out of a decade-long “democracy recession,” why Orbán’s defeat matters, and what it tells us about the resilience of democratic systems. We also explore the global implications — from Ukraine and Europe to rising political risk and shifting power dynamics worldwide.Katherine Stewart is the Head of Impact Research at Economist Impact, part of The Economist Group.

The collapse of US–Iran negotiations highlights a deeper structural problem: escalation is now outpacing diplomacy. Following a high-level meeting in Islamabad that failed to produce any meaningful breakthrough, the United States has escalated by moving to blockade the Strait of Hormuz—raising serious questions about strategy, sustainability, and the risk of broader regional spillover.In this episode, I speak with Ross Harrison about the strategic logic behind both sides’ actions. We analyse the role of coercive diplomacy, the limits of military pressure as a negotiating tool, and the increasing complexity of the conflict as Iran expands the theatre horizontally through proxies and regional pressure points.We also explore whether the United States has a coherent theory of change, how Iran is leveraging asymmetric tactics to shape outcomes, and why the absence of a clear off-ramp may be the most dangerous factor of all.Ross Harrison is a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, specialising in US foreign policy, Iran, and regional security dynamics.