The Global Gambit

General Ben Hodges says Russia is already at war with Europe. Not with missiles striking NATO cities, but through drones, sabotage and attacks designed to frighten populations and weaken support for Ukraine. So why are European governments still reluctant to impose meaningful consequences?Hodges joins me to discuss Germany’s far-right breakthrough, NATO’s response to Russian provocations and the growing uncertainty over American support. We also examine how Ukraine’s long-range strikes are turning Russia’s vast territory from a strategic advantage into a vulnerability—and why Putin faces a dangerous choice over mobilisation as winter approaches.Ben Hodges is the former Commanding General of US Army Europe.

Description:Intelligence failures make headlines. Intelligence successes rarely do — which is exactly the problem when trying to understand how the West actually predicted Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and what it can and can't tell us about Putin's next move.In this conversation, I'm joined by Charles Finfrock — a former CIA officer with 18 years of experience across the Middle East, Europe, and Asia — to examine how intelligence assessments are actually built. Why there's a critical difference between a "secret" that can be stolen and a "mystery" that even Putin himself may not have resolved, how human sources, satellite imagery, and signals intelligence get fused into a single judgment, and why getting Russia's 2022 invasion right was a genuine intelligence success even if it couldn't prevent the war.We also discuss Russia's escalating willingness to target Western and dual citizens on NATO soil, Ukraine's campaign against Russian commanders and energy infrastructure, and the historical pattern behind strategic surprise — from Stalin's refusal to believe Sorge's warnings to October 7th.If Russia is preparing for another confrontation, the intelligence may already be there. The harder question is whether anyone is willing to believe it.

Summary Iran's regime survives. The Strait of Hormuz is under threat. Gulf allies are furious. And the United States, further from its goals than when the war began, has spent months exposing the limits of its own power in the process. Jason Campbell, joins The Global Gambit to break down how Trump's Iran war became a self-inflicted collapse of American leverage in the Middle East: the depleted munitions stocks, the abandoned Gulf partners, the diplomatic sidelining on the Strait of Hormuz talks, and why China may be the war's quietest long-term winner.About the guestJason Campbell is a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute focusing on US foreign policy, defense strategy, and Middle East security, and spent fifteen years at the RAND Corporation.

Description:Former US National Security Advisor Lieutenant General H.R. McMaster joins The Global Gambit to examine why China, Russia and Iran have become the defining geopolitical challenge of our time. We discuss Beijing's support for Moscow, the changing character of warfare, NATO's future, Western fatigue over Ukraine, and why China may ultimately be the greatest long-term beneficiary of today's global instability — including whether Beijing's ambitions extend to annexing Russian territory in Siberia, and what the axis means for Taiwan and the wider Indo-Pacific.About the guestLieutenant General H.R. McMaster served as the 26th US National Security Advisor and is one of America's leading military strategists and experts on great-power competition.Timestamps00:00 – Introduction and General McMaster's background01:01 – Initial developments in Ukraine and Middle East tensions02:19 – China, Russia and Iran's strategic partnership03:33 – The evolving character of warfare with drones and space06:19 – Historical parallels: World War I and modern warfare07:31 – Limitations of the Russia-Iran-China axis09:05 – Western fatigue and the Russian war in Ukraine10:28 – China and Russia's role in global power shifts11:30 – Weaknesses of the axis powers and future prospects14:27 – The Russia-Ukraine conflict and Western support17:47 – China's military and economic standing18:47 – NATO's future without US support20:42 – Chinese economic power and global influence36:36 – Russia's future in the context of Chinese expansion38:19 – The outlook for Ukraine and Middle East conflicts41:17 – The long war against Iran and regional stability44:13 – Closing remarks and optimism for democracy

In this episode, Pyotr Kurzin hosts Dr. Bence Nemeth to explore Europe's strategic autonomy, defense capabilities, and the evolving landscape of NATO and EU military cooperation amid the Ukraine conflict and broader geopolitical shifts.Bence Nemeth is a Senior Lecturer at the Defence Studies Department of King’s College London, where he primarily teaches British and international military officers at the Defence Academy of the UK.

Trump says he has secured a major breakthrough with Iran, but is the deal even worse than many are already claiming? And are details taking so long to release?Joining me today is Ian Bremmer, founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media, to discuss the emerging US-Iran agreement, why many analysts remain sceptical, and whether Washington is actually in a weaker position than before the conflict began.We examine the future of the Iran deal, sanctions relief, the Strait of Hormuz, Trump's foreign policy decision-making, growing divisions within the Middle East, China's expanding influence, and what all of this means for the balance of power in the region and beyond. We also discuss Europe, the G7, Russia, and the increasingly strained relationship between America and its allies.

Senator Mark Kelly just returned from Odessa. His verdict: Ukraine has effectively shut down the Russian Navy in the Black Sea — Russia can't operate there anymore.Crimea is next.Full conversation with the Senator on what he saw on the ground, the momentum shift, and why Putin is running out of options.Senator Mark Kelly is a retired Navy combat pilot, NASA astronaut, and sitting US Senator for Arizona serving on the Armed Services and Intelligence Committees.

Ukraine just struck Putin's hometown during the St Petersburg Economic Forum. Is this a genuine shift in momentum or another false dawn in a war that keeps defying predictions?Dan Ridler, Senior Analyst for Europe at the Economist Intelligence Unit, joins to cut through the noise. We get into how the EIU actually forecasts war outcomes, why the battlefield probably won't decide this conflict, what the frozen conflict scenario gets wrong, and the one underappreciated path toward peace that most analysts are missing.Plus — how do you verify Russian economic data when Moscow keeps hiding it? And what's the single biggest variable that will determine where this war goes next?