Rational Security

This week, Scott was joined by his Lawfare colleagues Eric Ciaramella and Anastasiia Lapatina, as well as special guest Kyiv Independent reporter Francis Farrell, for an episode committed to one big topic: what Trump’s return to the White House might mean for Ukraine. They tackled the issue in three parts:“What Condition My Attrition Is In.” By most accounts, after more than two years of fighting, the conflict in Ukraine has come to look very much like a war of attrition. How do Ukrainians feel about the state of the conflict and the prospects looking forward? What steps are the outgoing Biden administration taking to change the calculus—and what impact might they still have, if any?“New Boss, Same as the Old Boss.” Donald Trump’s return to the White House promises a sea change in how the United States has approached the conflict in Ukraine. What do his early national security appointments—and engagements with, among others, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky—tell us about his plans? And where do they seem likely to lead?“Flipping the Board.” Trump’s election—and whatever outcome he is able to bring about in Ukraine—has the potential to reset the strategic environment in Europe (and the U.S. strategic relationship with Russia) more generally. What might regional security—and security for Ukraine specifically—look like by 2028?For object lessons, Nastya recommended Catherine Belton’s new book, “Putin’s People,” on the return and rise to power of the KGB. Eric gave a belated endorsement for the Oscar-winning South Korean film “Parasite,” and urged folks to watch it as a celebration of the democratic resilience South Korea demonstrated this week. Scott plugged the holiday variety show he was attending that evening and urged listeners to welcome the season with Aimee Mann’s “One More Drifter in the Snow.” And Francis recommended GeoGuessr, the geolocation game that has taken the KI newsroom by storm.Rational Security will be saying goodbye to 2024 in its traditional fashion: by discussing listener-submitted topics and object lessons! To submit yours, call in to (202) 743-5831 to leave a voicemail or email rationalsecurity@lawfaremedia.org. Just do it by COB on December 18!To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.

This week, Scott sat down with Lawfare Senior Editors Molly Reynolds and Alan Rozenshtein, and with University of Houston Law Center Assistant Professor of Law Chris Mirasola, to talk through the week’s big national security news, including:“Troops, There It Is.” President-elect Donald Trump raised eyebrows this week when he suggested that he intended to declare a national emergency and use U.S. soldiers to implement his planned deportation of undocumented migrants from the United States—the first of many potential domestic uses of the military some fear he will pursue. But does the president have the authority to use the military in this way? And is a(nother) national emergency really necessary?“Break It ‘Til You Make It.” Some have expressed serious doubt as to whether the incoming Trump administration’s flurry of highly controversial nominees for senior positions in government will be able to successfully make its way through even the Republican-held Senate. But doing so may not be necessary, as Trump’s allies are reportedly exploring a legal scheme by which he can use a never-before-used authority to adjourn Congress to force the Senate into an extended recess, and then appoint his preferred nominees as recess appointments. How plausible is this legal theory? And what role is it likely to play in Trump’s confirmation strategy?“Rolling Back the Clock.” While he was once one of TikTok’s greatest enemies, President-elect Trump has changed his tune: on the campaign trail, he came out against the ban on the controversial social media platform passed by Congress, which is sent to go into effect early next year if its China-associated owners do not divest. Will Trump try to come to TikTok’s rescue? And if so, what could he do?For object lessons, Alan recommended the childrens’ audio player “Yoto,” to the fervent applause of the other guests and their young children. Molly embraced her Patrick Radden Keefe fandom one more time to recommend FX’s forthcoming adaptation of his book, “Say Nothing.” Chris endorsed Jon Batiste’s new album “Beethoven Blues.” And Scott urged listeners to follow his lead and take in an aptonymous double-feature this weekend: the new film “Saturday Night” and the first ever 1975 episode of “Saturday Night Live” that it’s about.Note: We will be taking the week of Thanksgiving off, but we’ll be back with a new episode of Rational Security on Thursday, December 5. We’re thankful for your continued support of the show!To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/c/trumptrials.

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Anna Bower, Eugenia Lostri, and Roger Parloff to discuss the week’s big national security news, including:“Putting the Dismal in Dismissal.” Donald Trump’s election as president for a second time puts the state and federal criminal charges against him—and potentially some of his supporters and co-conspirators—in unprecedented historical territory. Where do these cases seem to be headed? And what will it mean for the broader effort at accountability, especially around Jan. 6?“Taking Bytes Out of Crime.” As one of its last acts in power, the Biden administration seems poised to support a forthcoming U.N. convention on cybercrime, despite reservations among some observers that it may be abused by autocratic regimes and strategic rivals. Why is the Biden administration tempted by the treaty? And what will its support at this late hour mean in practice?“Meme of Rivals.” Donald Trump is only one week in as president-elect but has already released a flurry of appointments and rumored appointments for senior positions in his forthcoming administration. And those appointed range from established Republicans like Sen. Marco Rubio, who is rumored to be Trump’s pick for Secretary of State, to iconoclasts like billionaire Elon Musk, who is co-heading a “Department of Government Efficiency” (or “DOGE”). What should we make of these selections thus far—and the process behind them?To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/c/trumptrials.

On Tuesday, November 5, former President Trump won the 2024 presidential election, becoming the second president to win a non-consecutive second term. Our team has been hard at work analyzing the fallout, but doing so has left us a little tight on time to record our usual weekly episode. So in lieu of Rational Security this week, we're bringing you a conversation in which Lawfare Editor-in-Chief Benjamin Wittes sat down with Lawfare Senior Editors Alan Rozenshtein, Scott R. Anderson, Anna Bower, and Quinta Jurecic to discuss what happens now. They talk about what a second Trump administration may bring and what to keep an eye out for during the transition in a live recording on Lawfare’s YouTube channel.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/c/trumptrials.

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Alan Rozenshtein, Benjamin Wittes, and Molly Reynolds to talk through the week’s big national security news, including:“An Eye for an Iran.” After weeks of waiting, Israel finally launched the strikes on Iran it had long promised in response to the volley of missiles Iran hit it with earlier this month. Compared to expectations, the strikes were relatively limited and aimed primarily at Iranian military targets, instead of its nuclear and oil infrastructure. And the United States is now urging an end to these “tit-for-tat” strikes. But is this likely to be the case? Or are Israel’s actions just the beginning of a bigger conflict?“He Just Slid into my DMs!” This week, the Wall Street Journal published a stunning report indicating that billionaire industrialist Elon Musk has been having previously undisclosed communications with Russian President Vladimir Putin and other senior Russian officials. How concerning should these conversations be? And what ramifications might they have for U.S. national security?“Post Mortem.” Washington Post owner Jeff Bezos’s late decision to squash an official editorial board endorsement of Kamala Harris—and to abstain from presidential endorsements moving forward—has triggered a tidal wave of opposition, leading to hundreds of thousands of canceled subscriptions from a newspaper that was already set to lose substantial sums of money this year. How wrong-headed was Bezos’s move? And what should the proper response be?For object lessons, Alan hyped the sci-fi classic "Hyperion Cantos," by Dan Simmons. Molly celebrated a profile of a former student of hers by the inestimable W. Kama Bell, which is part of a new Washington Post series on civil servants. Scott urged listeners to get out and participate in democracy this pre-Election Day weekend. And Ben logrolled for Lawfare’s newest podcast endeavor: Escalation, an audio documentary series on the origins of the conflict in Ukraine.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/c/trumptrials.

This week, Scott was joined by his Lawfare colleagues Tyler McBrien and Anna Hickey and special guest Georgetown University professor and CSIS Senior Fellow (as well as Lawfare Foreign Policy Editor) Dan Byman to talk over the week’s big national security news, including:“Some Vacancies in Management.” Israeli forces unintentionally hit their number one target last week when an Israeli military patrol in Gaza stumbled across and killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who is widely believed to be the main architect behind the October 7 massacre. It’s the latest in a series of military operations that have left the leadership ranks of both Hamas and Hezbollah decimated. But what are these changes at the top likely to mean for these organizations? Is this an opportunity for peace? Or an opening to greater escalation?“Forgotten, or Not Forgotten Enough.” Sudan has spent the past several months spiraling toward a political and humanitarian crisis of historical proportions, driven in substantial part by the agendas of outside powers. But the situation has received relatively little attention from the global media or broader international community. What do we need to know about the Sudan crisis? And how does (or should) U.S. policy enter into the equation?“Person-ey Non Grat-ey.” Relations between Canada and India have hit a new low, as Canadian officials have accused Indian officials of leading a campaign to intimidate and interfere with Sikh nationals resident in Canada, as part of a broader international campaign. While Canada has gone so far as to expel involved Indian diplomats, its traditional allies—including the United States—have remained far less confrontational with India, despite concerns over similar types of behavior. What explains this difference in approach? And what tack should the United States take moving forward?For object lessons, Tyler celebrated the NY Liberty’s victory and urged basketball fans to get on the WNBA bandwagon. Scott urged D.C. residents to visit the beautiful Kenilworth Aquatic Gardens for a real taste of the swamp. Dan tripled down on the podcast’s endorsement of the spy thriller Slow Horses. And Anna recommended folks check out Bolts Magazine’s annual election cheat sheet as they prepare for the big event in just two weeks.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/c/trumptrials.

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Benjamin Wittes, Anastasiia Lapatina, and Eugenia Lostri to try to make sense of the week’s biggest national security news stories, including:“Kursked.” This week, even as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky rolls out his “Victory Plan” to Western allies, Russian forces have made progress reclaiming what some have described as a key part of that plan: the region of Kursk within Russia, which Ukrainian forces seized earlier this year. How central is Kursk to Zelensky’s vision for how to end the conflict? And how will Russia’s apparent progress impact his plans?“The Waiting Game.” The world remains on the edge of its seat, waiting to see how Israel will pursue its promised response against Iran for the volley of missiles the latter launched against it earlier this month. What sort of response does Israel seem to have in store? And what role will the United States be playing?“Tap Tap Tapping.” A coalition of China-associated hackers called “Salt Typhoon” is believed to have hacked the system used by telecommunications companies to comply with U.S. legal warrants. How big a deal is this? And what might its implications be for the United States surveillance system writ large?For object lessons, Ben shared his electronic composition “Trump Portrait” (with apologies to both Aaron Copeland and Abraham Lincoln). Nastya recommended “The Road to Unfreedom,” by Timothy Snyder, as an essential portrait of the road to Russia’s brutality. Scott sang the praises of the Slate podcast “One Year,” especially for those seeking informative and (mostly) family-friendly podcast fare. And Eugenia endorsed the series “Nobody Wants This,” the most grounded and realistic rabbi-meets-sex podcaster romcom you’ve ever seen.

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Molly Reynolds, Kevin Frazier, and Katherine Pompilio to talk over the week's big national security news stories, including:“The Fourth Law of Robotics is, You Don’t Talk About the First Three Laws of Robotics.” California Governor Gavin Newsom vetoed SB 1047 this past week, a measure that would have imposed the first set of meaningful safety regulations on the development of Artificial Intelligence (AI)—measures industry leaders said were onerous and unnecessary. While Newsom vetoed this legislation, he endorsed the broader idea of safety action on AI, including at the state level. What does Newsom’s move tell us about the state of the AI industry and efforts to regulate it?“Battening Down the Hatchetmen.” As countless Americans have struggled through the aftermath of Hurricane Helene—and are preparing for Hurricane Milton, due to make landfall Wednesday—Congress has been in recess. And Speaker of the House Mike Johnson has expressed his opposition to any effort to call them back early to provide, among other things, supplemental emergency funding. What is the logic behind Johnson’s opposition? And what does it tell us about the state of Congress as we head into a potentially historic election?“Premature Articulation.” Last week, Special Counsel Jack Smith filed a massive brief laying out how his prosecution of former President Donald Trump can proceed within the (very messy) framework laid out by the Supreme Court in its immunity decision earlier this year. But the timing of this filing (and its unsealing) has some claiming that Smith is acting out of political animus. What’s the significance of this filing? And should Smith have waited until after the election? For object lessons, Molly asked whether the Mets rally pumpkin would go the way of Liz Truss's head of lettuce. Kevin urged listeners to help out needy Floridians suffering through the hurricanes through Feeding Florida. Scott sang the epic tale of his own hurricane refugee mother, and her long and unexpected drive up the east coast. And Katherine recommended the album "Big Ideas" by the life-changing artist Remi Wolf, and offers a warning against being influenced by the influencers.

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Benjamin Wittes, Quinta Jurecic, and Tyler McBrien to try to make sense of the week’s biggest national security news stories, including:“Pulling Up the Escalation Ladder.” Israel’s escalating campaign against Hezbollah turned regional yesterday, as Iran launched a salvo of more than 180 ballistic missiles against Israel. While the damage was limited, both Israel and the United States have promised consequences. What strategies are Israel, Iran, and the United States pursuing in all this? And where will it lead?“At Least He Didn’t Get Aslan Killed.” New York City Mayor Eric Adams’s passion for Turkish delights has led to his indictment on multiple charges relating to alleged corruption, specifically at the behest of individuals associated with the Turkish and potentially other foreign governments. Adams, in turn, claims he is being targeted for, among other reasons, speaking out about immigration concerns. What is the real driver behind Adams’s indictment? “Devil Came Down to Georgia.” Hurricane Helene wreaked havoc on the American southeast this past week—not just in coastal areas accustomed to hurricane season damage, but also deep inland as it cut through and past the Gulf of Mexico. In parts of southern Appalachia, the storm caused immense flooding that has wiped out whole towns and resulted in dozens of deaths. The aftermath is raising countless policy concerns, from ways to heighten resilience to concerns over the impact on the forthcoming general election. How should hurricanes and other extreme weather events—widely understood to be, in part, products of climate change—figure into our national security?To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/c/trumptrials.