Rational Security

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Benjamin Wittes, Natalie Orpett and Eric Ciaramella to talk through the week’s big national security news stories, including:“The Art of the Ordeal.” The Trump administration has been at the center of yet another bout of shuttle diplomacy the last several weeks, after an initial “28-point plan” for peace in Ukraine it appeared to hash out with Russia was met with widespread skepticism, both at home and in Kiev — leading it to shift focus to a “19-point plan” officials hashed out in closer consultation with Ukrainian officials and European officials, which was subsequently rejected by Russian President Vladimir Putin. What does this chaotic process tell us about the Trump administration’s strategy and priorities? And what is it likely to mean for America’s Ukrainian allies? “The War Crime on Drugs.” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is at the center of another controversy, this time over his reported order to “kill everybody” in the first strike on an alleged narcotics-smuggling boat this past September—an order that, intentionally or not, led to a second strike that killed several people who were by that point clinging to wreckage in the open sea, in seemingly clear violation of Defense Department practice and the laws of armed conflict. Hegseth and the White House have sought to shift responsibility for the second strike to senior military personnel, but it’s not clear whether Congress—where Democrats and Republicans on the armed services committees are threatening oversight—are persuaded.“Unlawful Good.” Several legislators who are also current or former servicemembers have been labeled the “Seditious Six” by the Trump administration and its allies for public statements they made reiterating that servicemembers’ are only obligated to follow lawful orders, specifically in relation to ongoing counter-narcotics military operations in the Caribbean. And at least one—Sen. Mark Kelly, a retired naval officer—has been publicly threatened with a court martial by the Defense Department. How seriously should we take these legal actions? And what could the broader ramifications be for the military?In object lessons, Ben uses his once per decade mulligan. Eric recommends his current reading selection, "Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare," a book that Scott reviewed on the Lawfare Podcast earlier this year. Scott gets into the spirit with one of his favorite seasonal albums, "It's a Holiday Soul Party." And Natalie plugs Lawfare’s new Domestic deployment tracker - plus, a fabulous, olive-filled stuffing recipe (just add croutons!)Rational Security will be having its traditional end-of-year episode later this month, which will focus on listener-submitted topics and object lessons! So if you have topics you want us to discuss and object lessons you want to share—whether serious or frivolous—be sure to send them to rationalsecurity@lawfaremedia.org by Dec. 17th!

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Anna Bower, Michael Feinberg, and Roger Parloff to talk through the week’s big domestic news stories, including:“Diving Head First into the Shallow End of the Jury Pool.” A federal magistrate judge has concluded that the government may well have made substantial misrepresentations and other errors before the Grand Jury in the prosecution of former FBI director James Comey, and has ruled that Comey is entitled access to extraordinary discovery to make his case that these errors warrant dismissal, among other possible remedies. What does this ruling—which is now on appeal—mean for the Comey prosecution and for the Trump administration’s other efforts to prosecute the president’s enemies?“The Ep Files: Fight the Future.” Republicans in Congress are hotly divided on the question of the Epstein files. While some Republicans (along with many Democrats) have sought broader disclosures from the Justice Department, among other sources, Speaker Mike Johnson and others have thrown up roadblocks to relevant requests, in part out of apparent concern that they may contain damaging revelations about President Trump. But the White House did an about-face this week, switching to support legislation that would compel disclosure of the investigatory materials—clearing the way for it to move forward. What explains the switch in time? And where might it lead?“Pipe Dreams.” The right wing media outlet The Blaze released a bombshell report last week, indicating that they had identified a law enforcement and intelligence official as the likely perpetrator of the Jan. 6, 2021, attempted pipe bombing of the DNC and RNC headquarters in Washington, D.C.—a longstanding obsession in certain corners of the internet. But its claims were quickly rebuked by senior FBI officials, triggering a round of mutual incrimination and accusation. What does this tell us about the state of the investigation and the broader relationship between the Trump administration, law enforcement officials, and prominent portions of his support base?In object lessons, Anna revisits an older novel, echoed by some current events: Nora Ephron’s “Heartburn.” Roger revisits the November 13, 2015, terrorist attacks across Paris, commemorating the event’s 10-year anniversary with a recommendation of a video on Le Monde. Scott will be revisiting one of his favorite holiday events in the DC area: the Aimee Mann and Ted Leo Christmas Show. And Mike is revisiting novels of the past, bit by bit, through Edwin Frank’s “Stranger than Fiction: Lives of the Twentieth Century Novel.”To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Natalie Orpett, Eric Columbus, and Molly Roberts, to talk through the week’s big national security news stories, including:“I Don’t Think You’re Ready for the Shutdown.” The record-setting shutdown of the U.S. government is set to come to an end after eight Democratic senators agreed to a continuing resolution that will fund all of the government through January 30, certain chunks of the government all the way through the end of the fiscal year, and made a number of concessions along the way. What should we make of this deal, and what are the political ramifications—particularly for Democrats, many of whom are quite angry at those who ultimately voted for this plan?“Overt Acts.” Last week, in a move quite publicly celebrated by his controversial clemency czar Ed Martin, President Trump issued pardons for dozens of individuals accused of participating in efforts to manipulate the results of the 2020 election in his favor, including his former attorney Rudy Giuliani and other alleged “unindicted co-conspirators” in his own, since-abandoned federal criminal prosecution. Indeed, Trump himself was the only one who was federally indicted for 2020 election manipulations, making the most immediate legal effect of these pardons unclear. What is Trump trying to accomplish in issuing them? And what could the ramifications be for future elections?“Law & Order: Special Victims Unit.” Even as his prosecutions against James Comey and Letitia James have faced headwinds, the Trump administration appears to be moving full speed ahead with criminal investigations against other of his perceived enemies—including a large-scale investigation into government reports alleging Russian support for Trump in 2016 that was recently transferred from Justice Department officials in Eastern Pennsylvania to the more Trump-friendly terrain of Southern Florida. What is the current state of the revenge campaign the Trump administration has been pursuing, and where does it seem set to lead?In object lessons, Natalie is appreciating both “The History of the New Yorkers Vaunted Fact Checking Department” and the small army of neurotic geniuses who march forward in pursuit of journalistic integrity. Eric is appreciating The Week Junior, his daughter’s favorite magazine that proves real journalism isn’t just for grown-ups. Scott is appreciating The Far Side’s online presence, updated daily—a reminder that the line between journalism and cartooning is always thinner than we’d like to admit. And Molly is appreciating an “illuminating” visit to Glenstone, where Jenny Holzer’s art reads like journalism etched in light, documenting the lingering shadows of some dark subjects.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.

This week, Scott sat down with co-hosts emeritus Benjamin Wittes and Alan Rozenshtein, and Senior Editor Kate Klonick, to talk through the week’s big national security news stories, including:“Cracks in the Foundation.” The conservative Heritage Foundation—and the broader conservative movement it plays a central role in—has been going through a very public crisis over the past week after its president, Kevin Roberts, came to the defense of right-wing commentator Tucker Carlson after Carlson chose to host white nationalist Nick Fuentes on his podcast. This has led to resignations at the Heritage Foundation, condemnation by certain figures on the right, and a pseudo apology by Roberts. It has also led to a little bit of a reckoning over how some on the right, and to some extent Americans more broadly, have dealt with accusations of anti-Semitism, its relationship to various policy questions, as well as hate speech and other political perspectives. What should we be making of this crisis and what does it tell us about the different policy aspects that intersect with this question of anti-Semitism?“Turning Back the Clock.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent promised that President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping would “consummate” a TikTok deal at their face-to-face last week. But no details have emerged to date. What should we make of this apparent hold-up—and of the TikTok saga altogether?  “A Foe By Any Other Name.” As the Trump administration has continued its military campaign against narcotics traffickers in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific, U.S. officials have continued to draw parallels between current policies and the Global War on Terrorism, calling detainees “unlawful enemy combatants” and the groups being targeted “designated terrorist organizations.” “If you are a narco-terrorist…,” Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth recently tweeted in relation to one of the strikes, “we will treat you like we treat Al-Qaeda.” But how accurate are these parallels, and why is the Trump administration deploying them in this way?In object lessons, Ben brings you a little announcement that is shorter than this sentence—you’re just going to have to listen to find out. Alan, hungry for more genre fiction, is diving into The Divine Cities trilogy, starting with “City of Stairs,” by Robert Jackson Bennett. Scott is going out of this world with what he calls “the nerdiest object lesson” he’s ever brought to RatSec: Pioneer, a tabletop role-playing game that has “launched” on Kickstarter. And Kate, not to be outdone in nerdom, displays maybe the mathiest vegetable: the beautiful romanesco.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Public Service Fellow Ari Tabatabai and Managing Editor Tyler McBrien to talk through the week’s big news in national security, including:“Great APEC-tations.” President Trump is headed to Asia this week, both for a meeting of the regional Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) organization and a one-on-one sit down with Chinese president Xi Jinping. It’s a moment destined to spotlight one of the more quixotic areas of the second Trump administration’s foreign policy, only complicated further by his (and China’s) increasingly aggressive trade maneuvers, particularly around rare earth minerals. What should we expect this week? And what does it tell us about the Trump administration’s Asia policy?“Pirates of the Caribbean.” The U.S. military build-up in the Caribbean has continued apace, even as the Trump administration has expanded its controversial military campaign against narcotics traffickers into the eastern Pacific. Even as both sets of actions have put pressure on the Maduro regime, they’ve also created rifts within Trump’s coalition—where a few legislators have begun to join Democrats in demanding more answers from the Trump administration—and the executive branch, where tensions appear to have contributed to the early retirement of the military commander in charge of the operation. What constraints are there on how far the president can go in this space? And how far will he push them?“Too Calm After the Storm.” Hurricane Melissa, one of the strongest on record, made landfall in Jamaica yesterday, and is now hovering over Cuba (in weakened form) on its way to the Bahamas. The devastation it is expected to have left in its wake would in the past have been the subject of an almost immediate U.S. assistance response—but it’s not clear what will be forthcoming today or how effective it will be given the dismantling of U.S. foreign assistance agencies. How should we expect the Trump administration to respond? And what could the long term consequences be?In object lessons, Tyler is sampling Baauer’s Sample Breakdowns on Instagram for the muses behind the music. Scott is musing about the various uses of his vacuum sealer, particularly for his garden bounty. And Ari is singing the praises of the versatility of black sesame.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Senior Fellow Eric Columbus, Ukraine Fellow Anastasiia Lapatina, and Public Service Fellow Loren Voss to talk through the week’s big news in national security, including:“Visiting Concessions.” President Trump once again turned his focus to the conflict in Ukraine, announcing last week that he and Russian President Vladimir Putin would be meeting to discuss the conflict in Budapest—though it’s not clear Putin has agreed. This occurred just days before a planned visit to the White House by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, where Trump reportedly pressured him to make territorial concessions requested by Putin in exchange for an end to the conflict and failed to respond affirmatively to his requests for Tomahawk missiles and U.S. security commitments. Is this a real shift in the U.S. position? And what might it mean for the broader conflict?“Posse ComiSCOTUS.” After months of litigation in the lower courts, the Trump administration has finally gone to the Supreme Court regarding the legality of its domestic military deployments, seeking a stay on an injunction on its planned deployment to Chicago that was recently left in place by the Seventh Circuit. How big a decision point is this in terms of the legal authorities around domestic military deployments? And how does the Court seem poised to rule?“Material Contort.” Just weeks after designating ANTIFA a “domestic terrorism organization,” the Trump administration has brought its first set of related criminal charges, relating to a July event at a Texas immigration detention facility that left one police officer shot in the neck. The indictment includes charges under the material support for terrorism statute—but probably not the one you’re thinking of. How much does the indictment stretch the usual use of these statutes? And what does it tell us about the Trump administration’s anti-ANTIFA campaign?In object lessons, Loren thinks we should play more and recommends Wayside Farm for a pumpkin-picking, maize-mazing good time. Eric thinks we should get cozy more with a second-skin, chambray-shirt classic. Scott thinks we should reflect more with a majorly-meditative, lightlessly-enlightening retreat. And Nastya thinks we should read more with eloquent-essayist Zadie Smith’s cultural commentary, “Feel Free.” To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Benjamin Wittes, Kate Klonick, and newly-minted Senior Editor Molly Roberts to talk through the week’s big national security news stories, including:“Peace by Piece.” The first phase of the Trump administration’s peace plan for Gaza went into effect on Monday, resulting in the return of the last living hostages held by Hamas to Israel, among other exchanges. President Trump celebrated the moment with a triumphal speech in front of the Israeli Knesset, followed by a peace conference at Sharm el-Sheikh where the United States signed a joint statement with the heads of state of Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey. While much work remains to be done on implementing the deal, even Trump’s Democratic political rivals have lauded the deal. How much credit does the Trump administration truly deserve? And where is the conflict likely to head from here?“Un-Civil Service.” Since the U.S. government shut down at the end of September, U.S. agency websites and emails have been plastered with messages unequivocally blaming congressional Democrats and the “radical Left.” It’s an unprecedented use of government resources for a set of messages that looks quite political—exactly what the Hatch Act, among other laws, was intended to prevent. Are these messages consistent with the law? “Out of Our Element.” China kicked off a major new phase in its economic war with the United States last week, when it imposed major new export controls and rare earth metals and components derived from them—materials essential to various high-end technologies, including the semiconductors that power artificial intelligence. President Trump has since responded with a threat to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese imports—but what China may really want is a relaxation of export controls on AI-related semiconductors. How big a threat is China’s weaponization of its rare earth exports? And how should the United States and its allies respond?In object lessons, Ben shares his new campaign to troll the Russian embassy—an offensive involving 100 dead sunflowers. Kate has an existential crisis over her (old? new? what is time?) college sweatshirt. Scott gets spicy with a plea to listeners about what to do with his abundance of Bhut Jolokia peppers. And Molly brings a bit of beauty to the party with a Prinsesstårta, no doubt something she’ll be asked to make for the office.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Managing Editor Tyler McBrien, Foreign Policy Editor Daniel Byman, and Public Service Fellow Loren Voss to talk through (somehow only three of) the week’s big national security news stories, including:“The Dream of the ‘90s is Alive in Portland.” This past week, the Trump administration made good on its threats to pursue further domestic military deployments, this time to Portland and Chicago. Thus far, the administration has stuck to the same model it pursued in Los Angeles, using troops to bolster federal immigration enforcement efforts. But President Trump has threatened to go further if his efforts are resisted, including by invoking the Insurrection Act—something that hasn’t happened since 1992. How seriously should we take this threat? And where is it likely to lead?“Strip Poker.” President Trump and his senior advisers have been engaged in serious shuttle diplomacy for the past several weeks, seeming intent on reaching some sort of peace deal in the beleaguered Gaza Strip. And while it’s required him to play every card in his hand—including by bullying both Israel and Hamas into signing on—President Trump appears to be on the verge of a breakthrough. How remarkable an accomplishment is this? And what will it mean for the trajectory of the conflict?“The Maduro Doctrine.” Media reports suggest that several senior Trump administration officials are intent on removing Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro from power, and that the build-up of U.S. military forces in the region—as well as the lethal targeting of alleged Venezuela-affiliated narcotics traffickers in recent weeks—is just a prelude to a bigger effort at regime change. How likely is it that the Trump administration will take such a step? And what could it mean for the region?In object lessons, everyone’s taking a break—sort of. Dan’s “break” involves playing The British Way, a strategy game designed by his colleague Stephen Rangazas that even non–political scientists will enjoy. Tyler’s actually taking a break and heading back to high school with English Teacher on FX. Scott’s taking a break from originality by recycling not one but two object lessons: a reminder to catch Katie Pruitt at Union Stage on 10/14 (seriously, go), and—if you’re not in D.C.—Alan’s once-in-a-blue-moon good advice to watch Slow Horses on Apple TV+. And Loren is taking a break from her vices and cleaning up her act with dirty soda.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.

This week, Scott sat down with his colleagues Alan Rozenshtein and Anna Bower to talk through the week’s big national security news stories, including:“A Higher Loyalty.” The Justice Department appeared to bow to the demands of President Trump last week when, over the reported objections of several senior officials, it successfully sought the indictment of former FBI Director James Comey for allegedly false statements he made to Congress. But the prosecution is raising a lot of questions among legal experts about the procedures, the substance, and what exactly its odds are for success moving forward. What should we make of this move by the Justice Department? What does this tell us about the prospects for weaponization moving forward?“A Right to Bare Faces.” California has enacted a new law that, among other measures, will require law enforcement officers of all stripes to limit their use of face masks. But legal experts are torn on whether this policy can constitutionally apply to its clear target: the ICE personnel and other federal law enforcement officers who have started wearing masks for even routine law enforcement activities. How likely is the new law to achieve its goals?“Legal Code.” California has passed a first of its kind AI safety law, with the support (or at least acquiescence) of industry leaders. Does this point a way forward for AI safety legislation? And how will it make us safer?In object lessons, the AI overlords completely take over. Alan is vibe coding his way to paying for his kids’ college tuition. Scott’s AI alter ego is making easier work of docket watching with NotebookLM. And even Anna, in search of Jimmy Kimmel jokes, gets a little AI anecdote in through her recent tour of NYC comedy clubs.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.