NAB Morning Call

Thursday17th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABDonald Trump made a TV career from firing people and there has been increasing speculation lately that he is ready to dump the Fed chair. That speculation was heightened on Wednesday when lawmakers claimed he had pointed to a letter asking Jerome Powell to leave. But he denied that when quizzed by the press, saying he’ll only go if he had to because of fraud. As NAB’s Taylor Nugent describes, markets swung back and forth on the unfolding story but finished with the stock market regaining ground at the close. Also on the podcast, rising inflation in the UK and Australian employment data today alongside some key US metrics.

Wednesday 16th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump suggested that the latest US inflation numbers are weak and that the Fed should cut by3 points - presumably 300bp. But, as NAB’s ken Crompton outlines, the data is more likely to delay the Fed. Why? Because markets responded positively to the data initially, on further examination it’s clear that inflation is picking up in areas most impacted by tariffs. A cut at the end of the month from the Fed now looks less likely. Ken also talks to Phil about China’s mixed activity data, the optimism of analysts in Europe’s ZEW survey, yesterday’s Aussie consumer confidence number and what we can glean from US corporate earnings.

Tuesday 15th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOnce again, US markets seem unphased by the log list of tariffs from the US president, perhaps because he has indicated he is willing to negotiate, and it’s just seen as a negotiating tactic. Phil talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about whether we’ll see signs of the impact in US inflation data today. Yesterday’s data from China showed the resilience of their export markets, and where trade is switching to from the US. Also today, banks earnings results n the US and the UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves, around this time tomorrow, trying to regain confidence in the UK as she promises to be ruthless on cutting red tape.

Monday 14th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOver the weekend President Trump announced 30% tariffs on the EU and Mexico starting from August 1st. As NAB’s Taylor Nugent suggests, it’s another delay in the implementation of tariffs and it has stopped the EU from enforcing retaliatory measures planned for this week whilst negotiations continue. More concerning for markets might be the Trump administration’s moves to oust Jerome Powell from his role at the Fed, building a legal case on the cost overrun of renovations!The focus this week will be on US CPI and Australian labour market data,plus earnings with banks reporting from tomorrow and Netflix later in the week.

Friday 11h July 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.The ABS is abandoning its monthly retail trade numbers, in favour of a more in-depth analysis of consumption in the revamped monthly Household Spending report. There’s a fundamental difference between the two. The Retail Trade data was based on a time consuming survey of retailers, the Household Spending report uses real data from banks, supermarkets and car retailers.Robert Ewing is Program Manager, Business Statistical Production & Futures Branch at the ABS. Phil asks him what’s new in this report, is it accurate and what sort of enhancements can be expect down the track?  It all sounds like a big step forward, but any chance we can get it quicker?

Friday 11th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOnce again markets have shrugged off a tariff proclamation from President Trump. 50% could be levied on imports from Brazil, not because of trade (Brazil has a deficit) but in response to a trial against former President Bolsonaro. It’s a new direction for Trump’s tariff policy, but markets have taken it in their stride, with US equities rising today. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there are also questions about whether tariffs will be that damaging to the US economy after all. Evidence suggests exporters are swallowing some of their margins to keep prices low for US consumers. There’s also more Fed members suggesting the inflationary impacts could be limited. Phil and Ray also discuss the latest US jobs data  and today’s BNZ Manufacturing PMIs and UK GDP, both due out today.

Thursday 10th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThis has to be one of the quietest sessions in quite a while. President Trump did send out more tariff letters, but avoiding alarming demands and aimed at relatively minor trading partners. There was a stronger than expected response to a 10-year Treasury auction which, NAB’s Taylor Nugent says did move yields lower, although those moves had started ahead of the auction. The Fed minutes this morning show how divided the US central bank is on how quickly to move rates - or whether to move at all this year -and the impact of tariffs on the economy. There’s also discussion about the RBNZ yesterday, China’s inflation data and what to look out for today. Spoiler alert: not much! . 

Wednesday 9th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump has made more proclamations, including a 50 percent tariff on copper imports. A deal is supposedly progressing with the EU, which could see trade in aircraft and parts exempt and a reduction for some car manufacturers. If the deal falls through there’s a threat that Europe’s 20% base tariff will rise to 50%. Markets have responded cautiously, perhaps too cautiously suggests NAB’s Skye Masters, who says it’ll also be interesting to see how a 10-year Treasury auction is received tonight. Phil also asks her about why the RBA decision yesterday was such a surprise.

Tuesday 8th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump has announced a new wave of tariffs for a handful of countries, closely aligned to the Liberation Day rates. Of those announced Japan and South Korea are front and centre, each subject to a 25% base rate. 30% is being reapplied to South Africa. Although US equities are well down, NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the market response was rather tame. Perhaps because the implementation of these new rates doesn’t apply until 1st August. Maybe the rates will change. Meanwhile, locally, the focus is on the NAB Business Survey this morning, the RBA decision later. Markets have fully priced in a 25bp cut.