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NAB Morning Call

Overnight key economic and market information straight from NAB's team of expert market economists and strategists


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  • 128. Just one dot, even as US inflation dips

    15:54
    Wednesday 12th June 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt's been a fascinating session overnight. Early Wednesday US markets responded positively to weaker CPI numbers. Bond yields fell sharply, alongside a dip in the US dollar and more enthusiasm for equities. There must have been an expectation that the numbers would be reflected in a more dovish approach by the Fed, but the dot plot from FOMC members told a very different story, with the median expectation for just one cut this year. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks through the response, highlighted that the plot is a set of opinions, not a forecast and its he hard numbers that count. The next of those will be US producer prices out today, which fed into the PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. So, markets haven’t fully pulled back to their pre-CPI positions, but can we expect that if the producer prices aren’t as encouraging?

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  • 127. Fed versus the iPhone

    16:56
    Wednesday 12th June 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA mixed set of numbers overnight. The UK’s employment numbers showed wage pressures remain, whilst the NAB business survey also demonstrated inflation stickiness. NAB’s Ray Attrill says wages are a lagging indicator, and you can’t jump to conclusions that any of these numbers will change the central banks’ current trajectory. The path of cuts expected by the Fed becomes clearer with the release of their dot plot tomorrow morning. Meanwhile, bond yields fell overnight, helped by a positive auction result, and shares have been helped by Apple announcing the new AI iPhone. Economies and households might be struggling but we’ll always get excited by a new gadget.
  • 126. US jobs hot, Macron snaps

    15:05
    Tuesday 11th June 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNon-farm payrolls came in a lot higher than expected in the US on Friday. Not only were there more people in jobs, but wages are also rising faster than expected. Phil asks NAB’s Taylor Nugent how uncomfortable this will be for the Fed and what it’s done to market expectations There will be a lot of focus on the FOMC meeting this week, with the dot plot telling us when the Fed thinks we’ll see rate cuts. Whilst the ECB has been working hard to reel back expectations for rate cuts in Europe, President Macron has thrown the cat amongst the pigeons by calling a snap election in France, in response to a lurch right in the weekend European Parliamentary elections. It’s not going to be a dull week.
  • 125. Weekend Edition: Mookhey’s Balancing Act in Australia’s Most Unaffordable State

    30:21
    Friday 7th June 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.On 18th June Daniel Mookhey, the NSW Treasurer, presents his second budget to the state parliament. This week he talks to Phil about the challenges he faces, starting with house prices. They continue to rise, despite repeated efforts by governments over the years to bring them under control. How much of it is down to supply and what can the government do to increase it? Infrastructure building is part of the solution, says Mookhey. But that costs money and, if the NSW government increases spending couldn’t it add to the inflation problem? Is that something he worries about? In this half hour discussion Phil talks to the Treasurer about how he balances government spending against the drive to build the foundations for future growth, whilst facing the challenges of a less egalitarian society and a hefty state debt.
  • 124. ECB’s Hawkish Cut. Hardly a Surprise.

    15:55
    Friday 7th June 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe ECB cut interest rates as expected, but there’s no clear indication of when the next cut will come. NAB’s Gavin Friend says staff forecasts have pushed inflation higher. Hence, a hawkish cut. So much so, you wonder whether they would have carried through if it hadn’t been so clearly signalled beforehand. Now the focus is on the US labour market and what it means for the Fed. The ADP jobs number came in soft earlier in the week and the jobless claims number rose last night, with a softer read is expected tonight. Just as important ifs the question of wages. Q1 labour costs were downgraded yesterday, so will the fall carry through to the May number tonight?
  • 123. Let the easing begin

    16:18
    Thursday 6th June 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS equities hit new highs today and bond yields continued to fall. The Bank of Canada cut rates overnight with indications there will be more to follow. They pipped the ECB to the post, with their cut expected later today. Equities and bonds have been buoyed by positive sentiment, helped by a surprisingly strong ISM Services number for the US, after a weaker ADP jobs report – combined they add to the case for cuts from the Fed. NABs Ken Crompton joins Phil today to talk through all this central bank action, as well as digging into yesterday’s Australian GDP data.
  • 122. Cool Jobs, Majority Lost

    14:15
    Wednesday 5th June 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBond markets continue their rally, with yields down again this morning. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it’s in part down to the JOLTS data in the US overnight, which showed job openings slowing. That’s pushed forward expectations for Fed rate cuts slightly. He also points to the election result in India, which saw the PM lose his majority, which could impact future growth and, therefore, energy demand. We’ve seen commodity prices coming down again, hitting the Aussie dollar. Today we get Australia’s GDP for Q1. What should we expect? And could the bank of Canada be the first G7 central bank to cut rates in this cycle? We’ll find out later.