NAB Morning Call

Friday 16th January 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Australia’s housing market keeps getting more expensive, yet the real issue isn’t just how many homes we build — it’s how slowly they are changing hands. Dr Nicola Powell, chief economist at Domain, says turnover has become a structural drag, creating inefficiencies that stem far more from policy settings than from raw supply. Even with immigration easing, demand still outpaces movement, and rising prices continue to inflate the value of the national housing stock far faster than the number of dwellings themselves. Building approvals have jumped, apartment plans are surging, and forecasts point to further price gains in 2026, but the deeper question remains: why isn’t the market slowing? From interest‑rate dynamics and construction costs to population shifts and the FOMO factor, today’s episode digs into the mechanics behind a market that pushes prices ever high, well beyond the bounds of affordability.

Friday 16th January 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe mood in markets has brightened as tensions around Iran appear to have eased, with President Trump signalling a softer military stance, and attention has swung back to stronger‑than‑expected US data — lower jobless claims, upbeat regional manufacturing surveys and a solid equity rebound led by tech and small caps. Oil has slumped sharply, bond yields are higher in the US and UK, and the US dollar is firmer, while the UK has surprised with a 0.3% rise in November GDP that keeps the quarter out of the red. With a quieter day ahead — NZ PMI, US industrial production and the NAHB housing index, NAB’s Gavin Friend makes sense of a week that ends much calmer than it began.

Thursday 15th January 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA cautious, uneasy calm hangs over markets this morning, with no ruling yet from the US Supreme Court on tariffs and no military response against Iran, even as the US and UK quietly evacuate personnel from a Qatar base. Equities have stumbled, led by sharp falls in the S&P and NASDAQ, while investors rotate out of big tech and into small caps and precious metals, pushing gold, silver, copper and tin to fresh records. Bond yields are lower across the board, the US dollar is softer, and commodities are firmer, all underscoring a clear risk‑off tone. China has posted a striking US$1.2 trillion annual trade surplus on stronger‑than‑expected export growth, US retail sales have surprised on the upside, and Australia’s job vacancies continue their slow drift lower. We also touch on mixed US bank earnings, improving NZ labour data, upcoming regional Fed surveys and UK GDP and industrial production out today.

Wednesday 14th January 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA softer run of US inflation has kept hopes of further rate cuts alive, even as markets juggle mixed earnings, fragile consumer sentiment in Australia, signs of recovery in New Zealand, and a surge in Japanese yields driven by election rumours. Commodities are climbing on geopolitical tension, with President Trump’s “help is on its way” message to Iranian protesters fuelling speculation of US action and adding to the broader sense of unease.

Tuesday 13th January 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump has been directing sharp words at Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve, while the Fed Chair has pushed back, suggesting that any legal action against him is politically motivated. It’s the kind of confrontation with the central bank that many had anticipated, yet markets have taken it in their stride so far.Where markets have reacted more noticeably is the proposal for a 10% cap on credit‑card interest rates — though this may prove to be another policy idea that makes noise without ever becoming reality.We also look ahead to US CPI, and unpack a couple of Australian data points: consumer confidence, household spending, and what they collectively signal for the RBA. If further confirmation was needed, yesterday’s numbers strengthen the case for another rate rise — potentially as early as next month.

Monday 12th January 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS rate cut expectations are starting to erode, even as jobs growth softens. Markets are beginning to question whether weaker payrolls really matter if inflation refuses to fall — and this week’s CPI and PPI will be critical in deciding that. But, as NAB's Ray Attrill points out, it depends on Trump's nomination for Fed chair. The delayed Supreme Court ruling on tariffs now looks set for Wednesday, adding another layer of uncertainty. And here at home, fresh Australian consumer spending data lands today, giving an early read on household momentum heading into year end. Welcome to 2026, which promises to be just as firey as President Trump’s first year in office.