NAB Morning Call

Tuesday 19th May 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA stark geographic division has opened up in global markets as US and European assets move in entirely opposite directions. Phil talks to NAB's Skye Masters about this pronounced division, noting that while inflation fears have sent US equities tumbling and pushed 10-year Treasury yields above 4.6% to a one-year high, European shares are rallying and bond yields are falling. This market fracture comes as geopolitical tensions reach a boiling point, with Brent crude pushing past $112 a barrel following reports that Donald Trump is convening his top national security team in the Situation Room to discuss military options against Iran. Meanwhile, a sense of political calm has returned to the UK after Labour leadership contender Andy Burnham ruled out altering Rachel Reeves' fiscal rules, a move that lowered gilt yields and sparked a 0.7% climb for the pound. This transatlantic divide completely overshadowed much softer-than-expected economic activity data out of China, leaving investors to brace for a highly volatile week ahead of the Fed minutes and Nvidia's upcoming earnings.

Monday 17th May 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABJust when markets were hoping for a diplomatic breakthrough, it’s clear the Chinese leader sees it as America’s problem. Donald Trump’s blunt dismissal of the latest Iranian proposal has sent global markets into a dramatic tailspin. Phil talks to NAB’s Sally Auld about Friday's sharp risk-off move, which saw equities tumble and Brent crude surge toward $110 a barrel as the Polymarket odds of the Strait of Hormuz reopening this month collapsed to a measly 5%. While U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tries to calm nerves by calling the bond sell-off a temporary inflation blip, 10-year Treasury yields have added 11 basis points, and the UK remains in its own self-induced political fix as Andy Burnham’s leadership gamble pushes gilt yields up by a striking 18 basis points. This escalating geopolitical storm completely overshadowed surprisingly resilient U.S. industrial production data, leaving G7 finance ministers meeting in Paris today with a messy combination of a soaring U.S. dollar, collapsing consumer certainty, and the looming reality of a hawkish central bank response.

Friday 15th May 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.In this weekend edition of the NAB Morning Call, Phil talks to former Etihad CEO James Hogan, now Chairman at consulting firm Knighthood Global Limited. They explore the aviation industry’s resilient response to the Middle East conflict and the ongoing Strait of Hormuz blockade. James highlights how major carriers are successfully pivoting their business models by leaning into consolidation and prioritising high-yield long-haul routes to offset the rise in airline fuel. He outlines a clear path for the sector to capitalise on "sovereign resilience" and operational agility to maintain global connectivity. The discussion underscores a positive long-term outlook, where the industry’s ability to re-centre its networks around more stable hubs ensures that global travel remains viable and robust, even as it adapts to a new era of higher energy costs.

Friday 15th May 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABChina has tried to establish the upper hand at the Beijing Summit by warning of the Thucydides Trap – a phenomenon where a rising dominant power challenges the old guard, It invariably ends in war. It was a bold way to kick off a summit, where Iran seems to have had less focus than Taiwan. Meanwhile, US equities continue to ride high on AI adrenalin, helped by stronger than expected retail sales. UK GDP also came in better than expected, but the impact negated by politicians jockeying for the overthrowal of the Prime Minister. And NAB’s customer data showed a dip in spending in April. Today, the end of the summit and maybe we’ll hear more from the President once he’s back on home turf.

Thursday 14th May 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIs Donald Trump readying himself for a deal that will see him forego arms sales to Taiwan in exchange for China helping end the confict with Iran? It’s one interpretation of what might come from the summit in Beijing, but NAB’s Ray Attrill is doubtful anything too comnstructive will emerge from the talks. Still, oil prices have fallen a little and equities in the US have risen to new highs, despite an EIA report warning of rapidly depleting oil reserves. Meanwhile Kevin Warsh has been approved by the Senate as the next Fed chair, but he’ll find it hard to cut rates, with the latest PPI numbers rising sharply and bond yields rising. Today US retail sales is the main data release, although Ray explains to Phil why it might be difficult to decipher anything useful from it.

Wednesday 13th May 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWhether it is Chalmers' budget, Starmer’s fight for survival, or the eerie calm of a stalled Gulf ceasefire, the global economic landscape is shifting in ways that are anything but peaceful. Jim Chalmers' first major federal budget has delivered a blow to property perks by ending negative gearing for existing builds, even as an extra $18 billion in government spending threatens to complicate the RBA's fight against inflation. Phil talks to NAB's Gavin Friend about this domestic shake-up, including a spike in purchase costs in the latest NAB Business Survey and Australian consumer confidence plunging to COVID-era lows. Alongside all this a hot U.S. CPI print of 3.8% that has sent equities lower and yields higher. In the UK, Keir Starmer’s leadership crisis has pushed 10-year gilt yields higher still, while in the Middle East, the "nothing happening" news is actually the worst news of all: satellite imagery confirms Iranian exports from Kharg Island have completely stopped.

Tuesday 12th May 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIn this episode of the NAB Morning Call, Phil Dobbie and Rodrigo Catril break down the market's reaction to President Trump’s blunt dismissal of Iran’s latest proposal as a "piece of garbage," a move that has dashed hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough and kept the Strait of Hormuz under lock and key. As Brent crude pushes higher toward $115 a barrel, Rodrigo highlights a stark divergence in sentiment: while U.S. equities find resilience by "looking through" the disruption fueled by big tech earnings, bond markets are seeing yields rise as the geopolitical uncertainty takes hold. In the UK, yields have been hit even harder by a potential leadership challenge for the Prime Minister, while in China, consumer inflation kicked higher alongside a markedly sharp leap in producer prices. Domestically, the pair look ahead to a massive day for the local economy with NAB’s Business Survey, consumer confidence, and the federal budget taking centre stage, all while the global market braces for the latest U.S. CPI data.

Monday 11th May 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABCould we be on the verge of positive steps from the Gulf? Iran has responded to the US proposal and, as Phil points out, its not an outright rejection. This is also the week that President Trump meets President Xi, a discussion that could be critical to any solution in the Gulf. Meanwhile, US markets were buoyed by non-farm payrolls. NAB’s Skye Masters talks through the surprisingly strong results, even though the polar opposite was happening north of the border in Canada. It’s a busy week domestically with the NAB Business Survey tomorrow, and the wage price index and a the Federal Budget. Plenty to keep us all busy.

Friday 8th May 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.This week Phil explores the massive shift of Australian retirement savings toward Europe as the domestic superannuation system prepares to surge to a staggering $8.3 trillion by 2035. Joined by David Whiteley of IFM Investors and Nicola Jolley, CEO of NAB Europe, the discussion reveals why France has emerged as a premier hub for "patient capital," offering high-value opportunities in Public-Private Partnerships and strategic sectors like low-carbon district heating, waste-to-energy, and digital infrastructure. With so much money flowing into Australian super funds every week, the race is on to secure long-term, resilient returns in the European market. Tune in to discover how Australian workers are becoming some of the world's most influential investors in the global infrastructure of the future.