NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 13th May 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWhether it is Chalmers' budget, Starmer’s fight for survival, or the eerie calm of a stalled Gulf ceasefire, the global economic landscape is shifting in ways that are anything but peaceful. Jim Chalmers' first major federal budget has delivered a blow to property perks by ending negative gearing for existing builds, even as an extra $18 billion in government spending threatens to complicate the RBA's fight against inflation. Phil talks to NAB's Gavin Friend about this domestic shake-up, including a spike in purchase costs in the latest NAB Business Survey and Australian consumer confidence plunging to COVID-era lows. Alongside all this a hot U.S. CPI print of 3.8% that has sent equities lower and yields higher. In the UK, Keir Starmer’s leadership crisis has pushed 10-year gilt yields higher still, while in the Middle East, the "nothing happening" news is actually the worst news of all: satellite imagery confirms Iranian exports from Kharg Island have completely stopped.

Tuesday 12th May 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIn this episode of the NAB Morning Call, Phil Dobbie and Rodrigo Catril break down the market's reaction to President Trump’s blunt dismissal of Iran’s latest proposal as a "piece of garbage," a move that has dashed hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough and kept the Strait of Hormuz under lock and key. As Brent crude pushes higher toward $115 a barrel, Rodrigo highlights a stark divergence in sentiment: while U.S. equities find resilience by "looking through" the disruption fueled by big tech earnings, bond markets are seeing yields rise as the geopolitical uncertainty takes hold. In the UK, yields have been hit even harder by a potential leadership challenge for the Prime Minister, while in China, consumer inflation kicked higher alongside a markedly sharp leap in producer prices. Domestically, the pair look ahead to a massive day for the local economy with NAB’s Business Survey, consumer confidence, and the federal budget taking centre stage, all while the global market braces for the latest U.S. CPI data.

Monday 11th May 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABCould we be on the verge of positive steps from the Gulf? Iran has responded to the US proposal and, as Phil points out, its not an outright rejection. This is also the week that President Trump meets President Xi, a discussion that could be critical to any solution in the Gulf. Meanwhile, US markets were buoyed by non-farm payrolls. NAB’s Skye Masters talks through the surprisingly strong results, even though the polar opposite was happening north of the border in Canada. It’s a busy week domestically with the NAB Business Survey tomorrow, and the wage price index and a the Federal Budget. Plenty to keep us all busy.

Friday 8th May 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOil has been down, then up. Equiites have been just as volatile. As NAB’s Gavin Friend discusses with Phil, markets are struggling to find direction as headlines paint an uncertain picture in the Middle East. On the positive side there are reports that Iran will surrender some of its enriched uranium, but also speculation that Iran is insisting on charges for passage through the Strait, and a Wall Street report that the US is set to resume Operation Freedom. Meanwhile, a lot of the focus today will be on non-farm payrolls. Weekly continuing jobless claims are continuing to trend lower. They also look at data from Europe and the possible repercussions of the UK local council elections, with results filtering through in the next 8 hours or so.

Thursday 7th May 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets are running on hope again today, with the US issuing a memorandum of understabd to Iran, with the hope that month long peace talks could be about to start. Presidnet Trump also cancelled Operation Freedom yesterday. Markets have taken this all as good news, even though the Straits remain closed and oil reserves continue to fall. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to talk through the positive market sentiment today, as well as delving into jobs numbers in the US and New Zealand. Australia’s trade surplus figures today will be impacted by the price of oil. That’s simple maths, says Ken. 

Wednesday 6th May 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets seem enthused by the fact that, today at least, things didn’t get worse in the Middle East. That said, they didn’t get any better either, and the world, meanwhile is chewing up its crude oil reserves. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to talk through the market action and yesterday’s RBA meeting, which saw interest rates lifted, and the NAB view is that they’ll do it again at the next meeting. Taylor explains the thinking behind that, and looks ahead to New Zealand’s employment data today and the ADP jobs numbers for the US.

Tuesday 5th May 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump’s Operation Freedom, designed to escort vessels trapped in the Gulf, has got off to a shaky start. Iran claims they attacked a US warship (which the US denies), but nobody seems game enough to traverse the strait of Hormuz. Meanhwile the UAE has seen a number of drone attacks, So markets are uneasy today. On the home front, the RBA is very likely to lift rates today. NAB’s Sally Auld joins Phil to talk through it all.

Monday 4th May 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt certainly seems likely that the war between Iran and USA/Israel will continue for some time to come with Donald Trump likely to reject Iran’s 17-point peace deal claiming that they haven't paid the price yet for the damage they've done over the decades. Still, as Phil discusses with NAB's Rodrigo Catril US equities continued to climb hitting new highs again on Friday. The US President has also taken aim at Europe claiming that they are not following the terms of the trade agreement and saying that he will impose a 25% tariff on European cars as well as pulling out 5000 troops from Germany. This week a lot of the focus will be on the RBA, and non-farm payrolls from the US on Friday, with a swag of European data in the middle of the week as well.