NAB Morning Call

Thursday 26th June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt won’t come as a complete surprise that NATO members agreed to up their defence spending to 5 percent on Wednesday. The bigger surprise might be if they keep that commitment once President Trump is no longer in office. We saw a bigger response locally to the softer than expected Australian CPI number for May. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to talk about the market response and expectations for RBA cuts from now on. They also talk through the surprising drop in US new home sales, Japan’s leading index, Powell’s testimony to the Senate Committee, and what to look out for today.

Wednesday 25th June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOil prices are back down near multi-year lows, so is the US dollar, whilst equities are bouncing higher and getting close to all-time highs. Infact that happened for several well-known tech stocks. NAB’s Sally Auld says it reflects an assumption that the worst of the Iran-Israel conflict is over, although a New York Times report this morning suggests the US bombing only put Iran’s nuclear program back a few months. Meanwhile America saw a collection of softer data prints, which pushed yields lower, but didn’t distract equity markets. Today, Australian CPI for May will be the focus.

Tuesday 24th June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAn Iranian attack on US air bases in Qatar and Iraq actually forced oil prices lower. Much lower. Why? Well, even before it was confirmed by President Trump, it appears the attacks were orchestrated. That was confirmed when the President posted as much on social media, adding that ‘Perhaps Iran can now proceed to Peace and Harmony in the Region, and I will enthusiastically encourage Israel to do the same’. That message helped push equities higher towards the US close.The other influence today has been comments from the Fed’s Michelle Bowman, suggesting a July rate cut made sense but, as NAB’s Taylor Nugent outlines, there are a few obstacles to come before that happens.It’s a busy day for data releases today, as well as the NATO meeting in the Hague. Will they commit to defence spending at 5% of GDP by 2035?

Monday 23rd June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABYou think it’d be a choppy start for markets today, following the weekend bombing of Iranian uranium enrichment facilities by the US. But NAB’s Tapas Strickland explains to Phil why the response might be a little tamer than you'd expect. He explains how many were aware that a strike was imminent based on readily available Google data. They also discuss the worrying rise in Japanese inflation, the slowdown in UK and Canadian retail sales, and coming up, the contrast between US and European PMIs. 

Friday 20th June 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Research by CEDA (the Committee for Economic Development of Australia) shows that in the last fifty years or so the construction industry has not made the productivity gains experienced in manufacturing. In fact, the dwellings made by each construction worker has fallen by about 50 percent since the 1970s. James Brook, an economist at CEDA, worked on a recent report ‘Size Matters: Why Construction Productivity is So Weak’. The report highlights that, as well as the difficulty in sourcing materials, and the rising bureaucracy around planning regulations, the predominance of very small businesses in the construction sector is a barrier to the adoption of more productive techniques. James takes Phil through their findings in this weekend’s podcast.

Friday 20th June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOil prices are still elevated over the question on whether the US will side with Israel in the war with Iran and the possible repercussions of such a move. But the US President has left the door open for negotiations, now saying he’ll decide on US involvement in the next two weeks. Meanwhile, the Bank of England kept rates on hold, whilst the Norges Bank and Swiss National Bank both cut rates. NAB’s Gavin Friend says this was the first cut in this cycle for the Norges Bank. He also discusses with Phil Australia’s employment data from yesterday and looks ahead to UK retail sales and Japan’s national CPI.

Thursday 19th June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Fed agree unanimously to keep rates on hold, but the expectation of two cuts this year was enough for shares to rise a little today before finishing flat, no doubt driven down by geopolitical uncertainty and more weak data. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the one central bank that did surprise was the Riksbank. A cut was priced in, and was delivered, but the market was surprised at the prosect of another cut.Tapas also talks about the perceived challenges to the US dollar as the global reserve, with the PBoC Head talking about a new world currency order, where no one currency dominates. The main number today is the Australian employment read, and three central banks meet, including the Bank of England. Everyone today though will be keeping one eye focused on the news - will the US be drawn into the Iraq-Iran war? 

Wednesday 18th June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets are squeamish today as fears mount that the US will become more involved in the war between Israel and Iran. Certainly, the optimism that the whole affair will be over in a hurry has diminished, with the US dollar higher, oil much higher and equities taking a hit.NAB’s Sally Auld says markets are unnerved by the President’s comments as parts of the US military complex converge on the Middle East. There’s also some discussion on further weak economic data from the US a day out from the Fed meeting and it’s revised dots plot.

Tuesday 17th June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets seem optimistic that a resolution between Israel and Iran will be found. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says there’s a general feeling that Iran has its back against the wall and is trying to communicate that they want to d e-escalate the situation. Despite today’s market reaction, there doesn’t seem any evidence of a slowdown in the hostilities. Meanwhile, a Bank of America note overnight suggests central banks have been pulling out of the US dollar since March. Rodrigo also talks through the latest activity data from China, looks ahead to US retail sales today and prepares us for a week that could see a lot of movement in the US Big Beautiful Bill.