NAB Morning Call

Friday 10th July 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.All is not so rosy in China despite the official figures showing continued strong growth. ‘It’s not as becalmed and orderly as the government would have us believe’, says George Magnus.  George is an independent economist and a research associate at the China centre at Oxford University and at the school of Oriental and African studies in London. He was previously chief economist at UBS and wrote ‘Red Flags: Why Xi’s China is in Jeopardy’. He joins Phil to talk about the unreliability of China’s growth data, in particular how the targeted high growth industries, supported by government investment, are overshadowing the broader economy, where wages are low, unemployment is high and growth is at a crawl. Meanwhile government debt is growing. How sustainable is this path and what does it mean for exporters deliver resources to China? ‘Hedging your future business risks might be a good thing,’ says George.

Friday 10th July 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABHostilities continue to escalate in the Gulf yet oil prices have fallen and bond markets rallied. Are we over it? On today’s podcast NAB’s Sally Auld says markets are accepting there wil be low grade military action for some time to come, and oil will continue to trade in a quasi-equilibrium between $70 and $90. The Fed’s John Williams said overnight that he expects oil prices to fall as the year progresses, despite the rise in hostilities. He said he was more concerned about AI as a driver of inflation. Sally also talks to Phil about yesterday’s stellar manufacturing PMI and the fall in China’s inflation.

Thursday 9th July 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to discuss the latest moves in the Gulf, with President Trump declaring the ceasefire is over, with warning of renewed attacks on Iran. But will he push hard at the risk of escalating fuel prices for US citizens? Ken points to the President’s comments that meanwhile negotiations on a lasting deal continue in the background. Also today, the takeout from yesterday’s RBNZ meeting, the slightly hawkish FOMC minutes. Today China’s CPI and PPI are the main data points.

Wednesday 8th July 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOil rose a little overnight after Iran fired shots on ships approaching the Hormuz Strait. NAB’s Skye Masters says the price rise was probably capped by the release of the latest IEA forecast, forecasting a fall in demand and a further fall in prices next year. Bond yields have moved higher overnight, in part because of the Gulf situation, but also growing debt issuance, including a massive new increase from Amazon. Markets also responded unfavourably to Samsung’s forward guidance. Today the RBNZ is the focus, with a rate hike expected.

Tuesday 7th July 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWith the US back from their 4th July long weekend there’s been renewed interest in buying tech stocks. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to discuss this and more. Including OPEC+ upping oil production – isn’t it a little academic as supplies out of the Gulf are still restrained. The US services ISM showed us how, despite inflation, the US economy is still strong. Inflation is more of a concern for Japan, with wages data and household spending today adding to the picture. And Donald Trump is off to the NATO summit. Does he have his sights set on a resolution for the Ukraine crisis?

Monday 6th July 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBrent crude is holding on in the low seventies, despite all the uncertainty around Iran. This isn’t where most commentators expected it would land according to NAB’s Ray Attrill. Phil asks what this means for inflation expectations and how much of this was factored into NAB;’s latest FX forecasts released on Friday. Meanwhile, a quiet session on Friday with the US on holiday, but the Rating Dog Services PMI showed a surprisingly strong result, and the US Services ISM out tonight. This week is also pretty quiet, with the RBNZ rate decision the main event. Central bankers will step up to fill the void, with quite a few speaking opportunities in the week ahead.

Friday 3rd July 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.The government’s newly minted capital gains tax (CGT) rules threaten to hold back productive investment. That’s the view of veteran fund manager Geoff Wilson, founder of Wilson Asset Management, who says the changes for equities and businesses will ultimately restrict job creation and limit wealth generation for younger Australians. While Geoff has no problem with shifting tax incentives away from established property, he warns that clipping the wings of risk-taking investors will stall the country's broader productivity. Are the government's minimum tax requirements fundamentally flawed, or are they a necessary step to level the playing field? Also, how deeply is social media shifting retail investment decisions, and have global AI valuations run dangerously ahead of reality? Tune in to hear one of Australia's most outspoken market experts deliver his unvarnished take on where local wealth is headed.

Friday 3rd July 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe non-farm payrolls from the US overnight came in softer than expected, but NAB’s Rodrigo Catril strong enough for the Fed to dismiss concerns about the labour market and focus more of inflation. Phil asks him about the impact of this on bond markets, whilst equities have been hit by more AI concerns. With Anthropic reportedly teaming up with Samsung to develop their own bespoke chips it increasingly hard to know how to pick the winners. They also discuss the rise in the Yen. If Japanese authorities are looking at currency intervention could the thinner trading of a US holiday be the time to do that?

Thursday 2nd July 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s been a quiet day on the markets. So, for a change, an edition of The Morning Call that doesn’t mention the words Iran or Gulf. Instead, the focus has been on that last panel session at the ECB Forum in Sintra. Kevin Warsh didn’t give anything away on monetary policy, except to reiterate that from now on they won’t be giving anything away on monetary policy, but he did give his thoughts on the progress of inflation. NAB’s Skye Masters joins Phil to walk through that meeting, the weaker than expected inflation numbers for Europe, the slide in the US manufacturing ISM and a preview of tonight’s non-farm payrolls.