NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 19th November 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets are nervous ahead of NVIDIA earnings around this time tomorrow. The only real moves have been in equities. NAB’s Ray Attrill says, for once, the Aussie dollar hasn’t felt the brunt of the risk-off sentiment. We’ve also been seeing the first splattering of jobs data. The non-farm payrolls data tomorrow will be for September. ADP’s numbers for September were up, but overnight we saw their weekly numbers showing weekly falls through October. Weekly jobless claims were quietly added to a Bureau of Labour research database showing recent claims had not moved significantly since before the shutdown.The RBA minutes yesterday reaffirmed concerns over capacity constraints, with the wage price index released today along with UK CPI numbers.

Tuesday 18th November 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere have been no major market moves overnight as investors wait for the non-farm payrolls data on Thursday and NVIDIA earnings middle of the week. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to talk about how the potential reaction to each, as well as today’s fall in the Yen after Japan’s soft GDP read. Plus, Canada’s CPI, the better-than-expected NY Fed’s Empire State manufacturing index and an upgrade to the EU’s growth forecasts. It’s another relatively quiet session ahead before the big numbers start trickling in.

Monday 17th November 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump announced a relaxing on beef tariffs, alongside other food produce, to tackle cost of living pressures for US shoppers. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it’s not necessarily good news for Australian farmers because it potentially reduces our tariff advantage, which has seen a sizeable increase in Australia beef exports to the US this year.Meanwhile, the US data drought officially finishes on Thursday when September’s non-farm payrolls data is released. Fed speakers have been continuing to sound hawkish, opening the potential for no cut in December.Phil and Taylor also discuss how markets are reacting to the UK’s  budget uncertainty, China’s activity data on Friday and what to look out for this week, including Australian wages data on Wednesday.

Friday 14th November 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Historically America’s big-tech firms have seemed like a safe bet for investors. They had strong revenue streams, and they were ploughing profits back into innovative ideas for future revenue growth. That’s changed since the pandemic with the rapid growth of AI, with firms embarking on debt-fuelled expansion in what Phil suggests is a good old-fashioned land-grab.Lincoln Valentine is a senior analyst for international equities at JBWere. He agrees that there’s a land grab going on, and debts are rising, but he says their earnings continue to grow and their valuations reflect that. The question is, what happens next? When returns don’t match the level of investment made, or when one or two players start to cut their spending? Phil asks where are the risks, who has the edge and how long will it all last? It’s a high stakes game, that nobody dares to ignore.

Friday14th November 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABSally suggested as much yesterday. Now the recovery in the unemployment rate in Australia yesterday has confirmed it. NAB is not expecting any further easing by the RBA in this cycle. Ken Crompton talks through the numbers that led to this decision – actually, the employment data probably had the least to do with NAB’s call.Meanwhile, in the US, the Fed is still divided, although speakers are sounding increasing hawkish. Perhaps it’s the lack of data that’s getting to them. It remains uncertain what will be available and when, but CPI and the unemployment rate for October are already identified as casualties. Ken and Phil also talk through data from New Zealand and the UK and prepare for a data dump from China. 

Thursday 13th November 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s hard to imagine the RBA cutting rates anytime soon, after yesterday’s housing loan data showed a sharp rise, including a record for new investment loans. NAB’s Sally Auld says it’s a sign for the RBA that their policy is not as restrictive as they thought it was even a month ago. Today’s employment numbers are unlikely to shift that dial.The good news from the US is that an end to the shutdown is likely to be voted for in the next few hours. The bad news is that some of the missed data that was expected to start coming out in the next week or so, could well not be published at all. Leaving the risk that the Fed will go to it’s next meeting still flying blind.

Wednesday 12th November 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt was reasonably constructive news from the latest NAB Business Survey according to Taylor Nugent. Confidence fell 2pts in October, but it remains above the long run  average and echoes concerns from Andrew Hauser about rising capacity utilisation. Aussie consumer confidence jumped yesterday, despite expectations that the RBA will cut rates later, or not at all. Meanwhile, it looks like the US shutdown could end as soon as today, and we can expect a swag of delayed data as soon as next week. The UK Chancellor probably didn’t want to see the data that landed on her desk yesterday morning – unemployment grew faster than expected. But it has added to the expectation of a BoE cut in December. 

Tuesday 11th November 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABEquity markets have bounced back on the expectation that we are days away from an end to the US shutdown. Phil points out that Polymarket odds shifted from yesterday, when 56% saying it won’t be resolved by November 16th, to now 89% saying it will be! NAB’s Ray Attrill says markets are behaving like it’s a done deal, although it could be an interim fix that has to be revisited in annuary. Meanwhile the Aussie is strong, and bond yield are higher after a hawkish talk from the RBA’s Andrew Bauser yesterday, which has many questioning whether the central bank’s easing cycle has already finished.

Monday 10th November 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABSigns of a weakening global economy are mounting—though with limited US data this week, the picture remains incomplete. Still, the sharp drop in the Michigan consumer sentiment survey and a contraction in China’s October exports suggest more than just a slowdown. Even Canada’s falling unemployment rate comes with caveats.Closer to home, all eyes are on Australia’s labour market data and the NAB business survey. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to unpack what’s shifting, what’s stalling, and what’s next for tariffs and the US shutdown.