NAB Morning Call

Friday 18th October 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.They are neck and neck in the polls, so the US election could go either way, although markets are responding, to an extent, to betting odds which are showing Trump is the clear winner. The ABC’s John Barron reckons you have to be careful about betting odds. They often represent wishes rather than rational decisions. And polling data also has its weaknesses, as research companies struggle to find representative respondents. So, who will win and what changes if its Trump? Would he really push on with 20 percent tariffs on all US imports and the deportation of millions of undocumented migrants? John knows US politics well. He co-hosts the ABC’s Americast, and has written several books on the subject, including a history of US political campaigns called ‘Vote For me’ . On today’s Weekend edition he joins Phil to provide interesting insights into a man who is more bent on power than policy.  

Friday 25th October 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere have been small moves up and down in the latest PMIs. Germany saw a slight rise in services and manufacturing, but the Europe wide services number fell slightly. And the UK’s star has dimmed a little, as its manufacturing fell quite sharply, alongside a drop in the services number. Catherine Mann from the BoE gave a clear indication she won’t be voting for a cut in a hurry, and RBNZ’s Governor Orr tried hard to talk down the case for further big cuts. Could 50bp be off the table? And Donald Trump pushes ahead in the latest WSJ poll. Listen to our Weekend Edition for more on what a Trump presidency could look like. 

Wednesday 23rd October 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWhat do markets do when there’s no big data releases and a slump in earnings results of interest? Not much is the answer. Phil talks to JBWere’s Sally Auld about another quiet session, with markets clearly hesitant about the US election, the pace of Fed easing and the price of equities. The steepening of the yield curve could be a reflection of an expected Trump victory. They also discuss the revisions in the latest IMF World Economic Outlook, which has basically upped US growth a little at the expense of just about everybody else. But they note, the risk is to the downside.

Tuesday 22nd October 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABSome curious market moves this season with very little around in terms of data. So, with no hard facts to drive he agenda, what’s going on? Phil asks whether, as the election in the US draws nearer, whether we are seeing more indications of a developing Trump trade. It’s not obvious, says NAB’s Ray Attrill, with equities taking a hit, in particular financials and health, that are normal participants in the trump trade. Gold is pushing ever higher though, presumably a sign of nervousness ahead of the big day. Phil and Ray also talk about Andrew Hauser’s comments about RBA cuts yesterday and look ahead to another quiet day today.

Monday 21st October 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABChina’s CSI300 rose sharply on Friday. There was some positive data released, although in general the picture shows an economy that is slowing, held back by falling house prices. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the interest in shares on Friday was driven by policies aimed at share buybacks. Japan’s inflation provided more ammunition for hikes, eventually, whilst UK retail sales provided another reason for the Bank of England to avoid rushing into cuts. This week the Bank of Canada will announce its next rate cut, and the RBA’s Andrew Hauser gives a fireside chat where he will no doubt reiterate that they too see no need to rush into cuts.

Friday 18th October 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.NAB is in the thick of it, along with the rest of corporate Australia, and the government, fighting cyber-crime. This month is cyber-crime month and the message for consumers is clear - keep devices and software up to date, use strong and unique passwords and recognise and report phishing. Meanwhile, what’s being done behind the scenes to beat the criminals? Chris Sheehan, General Manager for NAB group investigations, says it’s an asymmetrical battle. That doesn’t mean NAB is losing, just that there must be constant awareness of what’s coming next. Does that mean teams of NAB people are lurking in the dark web, posing as wrongdoers? And what’s the risk that, despite all best efforts, the cyber criminals win and the whole system comes crashing down?

Friday18th October 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe ECB has cut rates with Christine Lagarde saying the disinflationary process is on track. NAB’s Gavin Friend says since the last meeting inflation has come down, and lower growth will be giving the bank confidence that it will continue in that direction. Nonetheless, base effects might see a temporary rise in core and headline rates that make it difficult to signal back-to-back cuts, even though the weakness in the economy could well demand it. Meanwhile strong jobs data In Australia should be the final nail for those looking for another RBA cut this year. Similarly, strong retail sales growth in the USA demonstrates a resilient economy that can survive without rapid rate cuts. On that basis could we see the Fed move just once before Christmas?

Thursday 17th October 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABInflation is slowing faster than expected in the UK. Phil asks NAB’s Ken Crompton whether this means the Bank of England could cut twice before Christmas? Markets have fully priced a cut from the ECB later today, the question is, what next and when? Australian employment numbers and US retail sales are out today, along with a further announcement on housing and debt from the China. Ken says it’s another “drip feed in the ocean of fiscal stimulus” – are markets prepared to be disappointed this time?