NAB Morning Call

Friday 22nd November 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.The private credit market is growing in volume with no signs of abating. Brad Calleja, Executive Corporate Finance at NAB, says its difficult to put a precise figure on the size of the space because not all deals are visible, but it’s estimated globally at between $2 and $3 trillion. So, what is it and why is it growing so quickly? Brad explains that it is providing a vehicle for institutional funds, such as super funds, to achieve higher returns from higher risk, longer duration investments that sit outside the risk profiles of most banks. If that’s the case, what’s the role of a bank like NAB in private credit markets? Listen in to understand more.

Friday 22nd November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAre NVIDIA investors a bit like Oliver Twist? They want more. That’s the take of NAB’s Skye Masters, who joins Phil on the Morning Call. The data was all second tier and none of it changed market expectations around the Fed’s path of rate cuts. US jobless claims were down, but continued claims were up, suggesting employers are letting less people go, but at the same time are not recruiting more. Positive news on housing, which can be choppy, was offset by gloomy news in the Philly Fed manufacturing outlook. So, it was a mixed picture overnight. The upshot, we need more solid data to get a clearer picture. Meanwhile, in the uncertainty, Bitcoin careers closer to the $100k mark. And will the promise of Roast Turkey drive up shares next week- which often happens on Thanksgiving week.

Thursday 21st November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere’s no been much in the way of data to give markets any direction. Ahead of the NVIDIA results equities were trading lower, with the US dollar up slightly, and no big moves in oil. Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland why there wasn’t more of aa reaction to events in Eastern Europe, with Ukraine firing US and UK supplied missiles into Russian territory, and the US, Italy, Spain and Greece temporarily closing their embassies in Kyiv, fearing an imminent attack. Meanwhile, UK inflation was a little higher than expected, reducing further the chance of a pre-Christmas cut from the Bank of England. There’s also been a claim that labour data in the UK has significantly overestimated unemployment.  Today, Europe’s consumer confidence numbers, US existing home sales and initial jobless claims, as well as the Philly Fed business outlook. And the RBA’s Michelle Bullock is talking at 7 tonight in Sydney at the Women in Payments Conference.

Wednesday 20th November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere as a certain amount of nervousness as Ukraine fired into Russian territory overnight and Russia revised its so-called Nuclear Doctrine, which lowers the requirements for a nuclear strike on a foreign power. But NAB’s Ray Attrill says the risk sentiment was short-lived, and markets are now focusing back on earnings results (NVIDIA tomorrow) and central bank expectations. The latter have been influenced a little by Canada’s strong CPI numbers, a lot of words from the Bank of England, the latest RBA minutes and, to come today, negotiated wages for the Eurozone.  

Tuesday 19th November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOil increased in price today. At first glance you might assume this was a response to the news that President Biden has authorised the use of US weapons to be fired by Ukraine into Russian territory. But NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says prices really rose in response to the news that the CEO of Liberty Energy - a company focused on fossil fuels - has been nominated as head of the Energy Department. Curious that the prospect of more oil wouldn’t bring prices down. Rodrigo also talks to Phil about European trade and wages data, NZ PSI and PPI numbers from yesterday, US housing and Canadian inflation. And self-drive cars, maybe a step closer.

Monday 18th November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABJust after Friday’s podcast Jerome Powell said the Fed was in no hurry to cut rates, raising doubts as to whether a cut in December was going to happen. Market pricing fell, to the point where it’s now closer to a 50:50 chance. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through what was said, and the mixed US data from Friday, that included strong retail sales and an (unbelievably) strong increase in manufacturing in the NY Fed survey. China’s data on Friday also gave some hope. This week, Taylor suggests, markets will have more words from central bank speakers and the like, rather than hard numbers to go on. It’s going to be one of those weeks.

Friday 15th November 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.How different will the world be after another term of Trump as US President? Will he grow the size of the US economy, or will his policies simply add to domestic inflation, meaning higher interest rates for longer. Will he start a global trade war, forcing companies to replicate their production facilities in each local market? Martin Wolf is chief economics commentator at the Financial Times in London. He is not optimistic about the prospects for the world economy. Phil talks to him about the ramifications for regions like Europe and China, where growth prospects are already uncertain. How do they adapt to working with, or without, Fortress America?

Friday 15th November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAustralian unemployment numbers just don’t want to move. JBWere’s Sally Auld explains why NAB now expects a cut from the RBA to be delayed beyond the first quarter of 2025 and might not even happen next year at all. It’ll be interesting to hear the spin from Fed speakers in the US now, after lower-than-expected job claims and a higher than anticipated PPI. After a December cut could the resilience in the economy coupled with Trump policies, delay any further cuts. Plus a preview of our Weekend Edition with FT’s Martin Wolf.

Thursday 14th November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US dollar continues to push higher, with the AUD one of the main casualties. The PBoC is also clearly concerned about the weakness on the CNY. It’s not just the dollar that is staying high - US inflation is taking a while to come down. The CPI number overnight was as expected, though markets seem to be reacting as though they are relieved it wasn’t higher. As a result, pricing for a December rate cut increased slightly. Locally, the Australian Wage price Index slowed a little more than expected, but not enough of a move to change the timing for the RBA. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to discuss all this, plus all the rest of today’s market news.