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San Francisco Real Estate: Escrow Out Loud
#54: Statistics of Doom? September 2018 San Francisco Real Estate Market Update
This week our San Francisco Real Estate podcast turns to the rearview mirror for a September 2018 market update.
[00:45] There's been chatter in the San Francisco property market about properties not receiving offers and price reductions returning to the marketplace. Does this mean that there is a market shift looming? Are these stories and anecdotes, or leading indicators of a looming market shift? We try and take some real estate market statistics from the San Francisco multiple listing service (MLS) to see if they might shed some light on the situation; is there really a market shift, or is all still noise?
[03:51] Real Estate valuation can be elusively complicated even though it seems simple. It can often include both the hard analysis of statistics as well as the more subjective personal factors that matter when people buy homes. Sample size is also an essential factor, and SF is a (relatively) small market. Most of the statistics that are reported in the media cover the entire bay area (7 or 9 county region, much more area than just SF) and aren't representative of SF in particular. It can be downright impossible to determine the health of the San Francisco real estate market using just those articles.
[07:18] If you want an accurate picture of what's happening in the market make sure you are looking at SF specifically. But, then the situation will also vary depending on a specific neighborhood as well as property type.
[09:00] The interest rates are rising, and we are seeing things are taking a little longer to happen; is this a blip or are things about to fall? We discuss the last time there was a downturn.
[11:06] It is no secret that in the previous few years it has been a rough market for buyers. Currently, the prices aren't falling, but things are taking longer. We share why buyers shouldn't get scared off by this and why it might actually be a good time for them.
[13:37] So, let's look at some stats. Regarding quantity (year-to-date) re-sales are up, pending sales are up overall, sold listings are up overall and active listings are up.
[16:06] Price year-to-date figures show that the sales price for the overall market is up 8% (single families up 17% and condos up 6%). Properties sold over the listing price are also up 4%; so far 81% of single family homes and 61% of condos sold over listing price this year! We also discuss list price received and price per square foot.
[19:30] Finally, we wrap up today by looking at metrics about time on market and months supply of inventory. Are we currently in a balanced market? We look forward to hearing your thoughts in the comments or via social!
Thank you for joining us. We hope you enjoyed tuning in and join us again next week for another episode!
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