Bubble Trouble: Laying Out Inconvenient Truths About How Business and Financial Markets Really Work

We’re back from summer break and we want to revisit some past pods as they get dragged into the current of current events, making our predictions as good - or even better - than the AI led herd. Today we’ve got a slew of stories to unpack, from AI Fakes and our podcast with the now-under-threat CEO of Boomy, the unwinding of the greatest money making machine you never heard of, and in Part Two revisiting our Ticketmaster / Live Nation show and the current fiasco of dynamic pricing for Oasis tickets.  For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.comYou can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)In this episode of 'Bubble Trouble,' hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page dive into two major topics affecting today's financial and entertainment markets. They discuss the recent fraudulent activities surrounding AI-generated music streams, detailing the $10 million scam involving fake fans and manipulated royalties. Moving on, they shed light on the Oasis ticketing debacle, where surge pricing and market manipulation led to skyrocketing ticket prices and public outcry. Throughout the episode, they revisit past discussions, particularly focusing on market turbulence and the intricacies of carry trades. The hosts promise more exciting content and insights into market dynamics as they kick off their autumn season.00:00 Introduction and Welcome Back01:08    Part One01:33 Reflecting on Past Episodes02:11 Summer Break and Market Turbulence03:42 Understanding Carry Trades09:46 Nvidia's Market Impact13:07 AI Music Fraud Scandal23:41 Part Two23:41 Oasis Ticket Fiasco24:59 Ticket Demand and Dynamic Pricing26:30 Surge Pricing vs. Dynamic Pricing30:58 The Role of Ticketmaster and Market Manipulation36:03 Potential Solutions and Future Outlook43:07 Concluding Thoughts and Wrap-Up43:48 Credits

This week we’re going to keep on pricking bubbles with a fellow cynic of the sycophants and stenographers. Here to help us is David Trainer of New Constructs, whose company makes “robo-adjustments” to the reported accounts of 1000s of listed companies and tries to unearth the real financials behind the content marketing from company investor relations teams.For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.comYou can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)In this episode of Bubble Trouble, guest David Trainor, the founder of New Constructs, delves into his background in economics and statistics, his time at Credit Suisse, and his perspective on market bubbles and financial accountability. The discussion ranges from the detrimental effects of rapid, superficial analysis and reporting pervasive in today's investment industry, to the importance of rigorous fundamental analysis in discerning true business value. The conversation also touches on companies' strategic overstatement of profits, the ill-effects of unchecked capital allocation, and the role of artificial intelligence in future financial analytics. As the founder of New Constructs, David highlights how his company is helping investors uncover the real financial situation behind companies' reported accounts.00:00 Introduction00:57 Part One01:02 Guest Introduction: David Trainor01:26 Understanding New Constructs02:22 The Cynicism in Wall Street03:02 David's Backstory and the Tech Bubble04:11 The Role of Accounting in Business05:37 The Reality of Wall Street07:42 The Boy Who Cried Wolf: A Market Perspective08:27 The Intentionality of Market Bubbles15:44 The Impact of Algorithmic Trading18:28 The Difference Between Investing and Speculating23:49 The Challenge of Limited Company Disclosure26:12 Part Two27:34 Discussing the Spectrum of Corporate Ethics27:42 Highlighting Notorious Corporate Scandals28:05 Elon Musk: Genius or Snake Oil Salesman?28:46 The Reality of Earnings Distortion29:09 The Unsettling Truth About CFOs and Wall Street Analysts29:40 The Role of Investor Relations Firms30:37 The Problem with Superficial Analysis33:43 The Art of Investing: A Touchy Feely Approach35:55 The Role of AI in the Future of Financial Analysis47:18 The Dangers of Overstating Profits and Zombie Stocks50:57 Closing Thoughts and Future Predictions50:59 Credits

So let's look forward and prepare you for the next big sexy blockbuster tech IPO, you’ve read all about it - that’s right. Reddit is going to ring the bell.For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.comYou can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)Reddit's IPO Adventure: A Deep Dive into Valuations, Trends, and Future ProspectsIn this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page dissect Reddit's impending IPO, examining its valuation, user base, and revenue streams. The podcast begins with a discussion on the evolution of Reddit and its business model, focusing on the challenges it faces as a business primarily driven by advertising revenue in a competitive digital advertising landscape. Kramer and Page delve into the nuances of Reddit's user engagement and its niche position in the internet culture, juxtaposing it against giants like Meta and Google. They critically analyze the hype surrounding tech IPOs, emphasizing Reddit's $800 million revenue and its struggle to become profitable amidst a sprawling digital advertising world. The episode also covers the broader implications of down rounds and the valuation bubbles that tech companies often face. Through expert insights and a candid conversation, the episode offers a comprehensive view on Reddit's IPO, the tech industry's valuation practices, and what the future holds for user-generated content platforms.00:00 Welcome to Bubble Trouble: DeepFakes and Bubbles01:02 Part One01:06 The Fascinating Shift from Hong Kong to Singapore02:52 Reddit's Upcoming IPO: A Deep Dive03:25 Exploring Reddit's Niche and Financials06:04 The Cultural Impact and Controversies of Reddit08:58 Reddit IPO Strategies and User Dynamics10:43 Inside Reddit: Culture, Compliance, and Future Prospects16:00 Part Two16:00 South by Southwest Festival Insights20:04 Back to Reddit: IPO Details and Expectations21:22 Technical Difficulties and Starting Off21:24 Exploring Down Rounds: A Deep Dive23:48 The Reality of Valuations and Market Corrections24:42 Tech Companies' Valuations Post-Pandemic25:41 Reddit's Revenue Diversification and Data Deals27:15 The Creator Economy: Expectations vs. Reality29:48 Reddit's IPO: A Case Study in Market Dynamics34:49 Smoke Signals for Future IPOs38:21 Reflecting on Reddit and the IPO Landscape40:20 Credits

This week we talk with Linda Yueh, author of the book The Great Crashes. Since America's Wall Street Crash of 1929, the global economy has weathered the most tumultuous century in financial history. From the currency crises of the 1980s, to Japan's housing meltdown, the dot com boom and bust, the global financial crash and the COVID pandemic, crash after crash has sent shockwaves through our world. The Great Crashes tells the stories of ten of these historic financial events. They serve as a series of cautionary tales, each with their own lessons to be learnt. With clear-eyed analysis, renowned economist Professor Linda Yueh uses these meltdowns to extract a critical three-step framework to help recognise the early signs of a crash, mitigate the effects and even prevent them in the future. There is very little that is certain in economics, except for this: there will be another financial crisis. [Repeat from March 2024]For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.comYou can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)Understanding Economic Bubbles and Crises: Insights from Linda YuThis episode of Bubble Trouble features Richard Kramer and Will Page in conversation with Linda Yu, the author of 'The Great Crashes', discussing lessons from historical economic downturns and ways to prevent future crises. Yu shares her unique perspectives drawn from her experiences in journalism, academia, and having been a witness to several economic crashes. The conversation covers the dynamics of bubbles, the role of banks and debt in triggering financial crises, regulatory challenges, the impact of policy decisions on economic inequality, and the specific case of China's impending financial instability. Throughout, the importance of understanding human nature's role in financial markets and the necessity for credible crisis management strategies are underscored.00:02 Introduction00:47 Part One00:47 Introducing Linda Yu: From BBC to Authorship01:34 Linda Yu's Journey: Academia, Books, and Economic Crashes02:06 The Making of 'The Great Crashes': A Deep Dive into Economic Meltdowns06:04 Understanding Crises: The Three Phases of Economic Downturns08:47 The Role of Banks in Economic Crises: A Critical Examination15:12 Regulatory Challenges and the Shadow Banking System22:06 Educational Insights: The Importance of Economic History26:52 The Eurocrisis and Bail-Ins: A New Approach to Banking Failures29:58 Part Two30:10 Preview of Part Two: Further Explorations into Economic Crises31:16 Exploring Economic Festivals and the Humor in Economics32:06 The Serious Side of Economic Crime in China32:14 Navigating the Iceberg: China's Economic Challenges33:07 The Next Great Crush: Predicting China's Economic Future33:39 The Intricacies of China's Banking System and Property Bubble34:56 China's Influence on Global Markets and Emerging Economies35:30 China's Unique Approach to Big Tech Regulation39:25 The Consequences of Financial Penalties on Banks41:03 Preventing the Next Great Crash: Policy Levers and Their Effectiveness46:13 The Unintended Consequences of Economic Policies55:10 Crisis Management and the Importance of Credibility59:19 Final Thoughts and the Future of Economic Crises01:00:30 Credits

Today, we welcome back Feargal Sharkey, who visited Bubble Trouble last summer and dropped a (water) bomb on our privatized utilities. He’s fought the noble fight to expose Thames Water as profiteering polluters. Nine months later we have a massive credit bubble bursting, dumping toxic sewage in both debt laden shell companies and the real shit floating in our rivers and seas, while private equity owners took out £78bn of dividends since privatization kicked in. A warning: this conversation should make everyone angry, whether you draw a drink, go for a wild swim, or just watch your rising water bill - asking how this utility privatization bubble caused so much trouble. [Repeat from April 2024}For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.comYou can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)This episode of Bubble Trouble features hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page, with return guest Fergal Sharkey, discussing the failing state of privatized water companies in England. Highlighted are the issues of excessive dividends extracted by private equity owners, the massive debt incurred by water companies, regulatory failures, and the environmental costs of pollution. Sharkie shares his firsthand experiences with water pollution and regulatory battles. The episode delves into the implications of privatization on public resources, the potential for nationalization, and the urgent need for systemic reform in water management amidst mounting public outrage and the looming crisis of water scarcity in London. The conversation encapsulates the complexities of privatization, the financial engineering driving the water industry's woes, and the palpable need for political and regulatory intervention.00:00 Introduction00:55 Introducing Repeat Guest Fergal Sharkey: A Deep Dive into Water Industry Woes00:59 Part One01:28 Fergal Sharkey's Journey: From Fly Fishing to Fighting Water Privatization03:27 The Alarming State of England's Privatized Water Industry06:47 Investigative Journalism and the Mainstream Media's Role07:44 Exploring the Nationalization Debate and Its Complexities11:06 Regulatory Failures and the Environmental Catastrophe14:27 The Financial Quagmire: Debt, Dividends, and the Dire State of Infrastructure22:00 Addressing the Bondholders: A Call for Accountability27:12 Part Two27:12 Looking Ahead: Solutions and the Future of Water Privatization31:49 The Inefficiency of Global Success32:11 System-Level Solutions for Water Management33:14 The Looming Water Crisis in London34:01 Government's Role in Managing the Water Industry34:42 The Financial Challenge of Securing London's Water Supply35:27 Reforming the Water Industry: A Shift in Earnings and Management35:59 Empathy for the Regulator and the Need for Investment41:10 Nationalizing the Water Companies: A Strategic Move47:04 Political Pressure and Regulatory Challenges49:42 Privatization's Failures and Future Directions55:20 Concluding Thoughts and the Public's Role57:34 Credits

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.comYou can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.comIn this 100th episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page discuss the inner workings of business and financial markets, shedding light on their truths via conversations with their guest, former CFO of Enron, Andy Fastow. They discuss the key factors that led to the downfall of Enron, including the exploitation of accounting 'loopholes' and the destructive impact of mark-to-market accounting and how it leads companies into a risk-laden gray area of business. They also cover the issues surrounding operating leases, addressing the ethical debate of 'genius' vs 'evil'. Furthermore, they delve into insightful examples of business mishaps and financial irregularities including the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank. Fastow expresses his regret and responsibility for Enron's downfall, highlighting the difference between technically following the accounting rules and creating misleading financial impressions of a company. [Repeat from November 2023]0:00 BT 100 In Conversation with Former Enron CFO Andy Fastow Part One00:02 Introduction00:02 Introduction and Overview of Bubble Trouble00:15 Reflecting on Past Episodes and Topics00:41 Unpacking the Enron Scandal01:23 Part One01:25 Interview with Andy Fastow, Former CFO of Enron08:33 Understanding the Role of Auditors and Attorneys10:59 Exploring the Concept of Loopholes13:46 The Reality of Operating in the Gray Area25:46 The Distinction Between Different Types of Fraud27:19 The Conflict of Interest in Financial Analysis28:53 Part Two28:53 Continuation of Conversation with Andy Fastow30:43 Enron's Acquisition and Financing Strategy31:14 The Use of Operating Leases in Enron32:46 The Legal Hurdles and Creative Solutions35:56 The Impact of Financial Innovation38:11 The Dangers of Mark to Market Accounting41:53 The Role of Incentives in Financial Reporting46:56 The Case of Silicon Valley Bank53:42 The Role of Analysts and Banks in Financial Misrepresentation54:54 Closing Remarks and Preview of Part Two55:31 Credits

This week, we freeform on two topics: summer music festivals and the stock markets. Will has identified a very interesting bubble this summer, which is the rapid cancellation of music festivals. Perhaps because supply got ahead of demand or perhaps because of extraneous factors, we wanna look into why so few people want to be standing out in their field or outstanding in their field. We're also gonna talk a little bit about the way in which random comments from politicians are roiling the stock markets.For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.comYou can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)In this episode of Bubble Trouble, economist Will Page and independent analyst Richard Kramer discuss the rapid cancellation of music festivals amidst the backdrop of a post-pandemic economic squeeze and over-supply of events. They detail the impact on the live music ecosystem, examining how financial constraints and shifting consumer choices are reshaping the market. Additionally, they delve into how random political comments are affecting the stock markets, with a specific focus on a recent market wobble triggered by remarks from Donald Trump and the narrowing breadth of tech stock support. The episode links the volatility in both the live music industry and financial markets, providing a comprehensive analysis of the current economic landscape.00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble00:58 Part One00:58 The Decline of Music Festivals02:09 Supply and Demand in Live Music04:14 Economic Factors Affecting Festivals07:29 The Impact on the Music Ecosystem08:38 Dynamic Pricing and Ticketing Issues15:44 The Future of Live Music and Festivals20:33 Part Two21:10 Market Turmoil: What's Happening?22:39 The Fragility of the Market23:37 Political Impact on Markets24:12 Investor Reactions and Strategies29:56 Global Market Contagion33:23 The Tech Sector's Wild Ride34:40 Political Volatility and Market Uncertainty41:44 Credits

Today we’ve got a guest who's been doing our job for decades. Andrew Orlowski is a writer who has followed the technology industry for two decades, so he’s see the hype cycle peak and trough many times.For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.comYou can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page are joined by veteran technology journalist Andrew Orlowski. They delve into the recurring market bubbles and dissect the relentless hype surrounding AI and machine learning. Orlowski discusses his track record in identifying technology bubbles and shares his skepticism about the transformative claims made about AI, comparing it to historical overhyped innovations like the metaverse and cryptocurrency. The discussion also touches on the implications of AI on productivity, labor markets, and the economy at large, highlighting the disconnect between policy elites’ expectations and real-world applications. Throughout, the panel emphasizes the broader societal impacts and the role of critical scrutiny in understanding technological advancements.00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble00:44 Part One00:49 Meet Andrew Orlowski01:43 The Origins of Bubble Trouble02:06 Spotting Bubbles: Andrew's Track Record02:39 Google's Market Manipulation07:00 The AI Hype Cycle12:08 AI's Economic Impact and Skepticism19:10 The Future of AI and Technology26:13 Debunking the Efficiency Myth in Tech Companies26:39 The Role of AI in Financial Markets28:10 AI Skepticism and the Hype Cycle28:20 Part Two29:02 The Future of Chatbots and Machine Learning30:06 Public Skepticism vs. Elite Optimism35:54 The Nature of Work and Productivity42:13 The Middle Class Advantage in the Modern Workplace45:40 The AI Bubble and Its Implications49:01 Smoke Signals: Red Flags in the AI Industry51:19 Conclusion and Final Thoughts51:51 Credits