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Bubble Trouble: Laying Out Inconvenient Truths About How Business and Financial Markets Really Work
Tectonic Shifts in TV with Doug Shapiro
This week let’s settle back to our sofas, grab our remote controls and work out what to watch with Doug Shapiro, among the most prominent voices in the world of television and its tech disrupters. His clear and concise work, all available to watch and read on his website is the go to for thousands.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts delve into the intricacies of media disruption with Doug Shapiro, a prominent voice in TV, economics, and tech. Celebrating over a century of their show's success, they explore topics such as the supply and demand curve changes, the potential of AI in content creation, and the future of media companies amidst technological advancements. Shapiro offers insights into the tectonic shifts affecting the industry, from the rise of new media over traditional formats to the economic implications of infinite content in a world of fixed demand. The discussion also touches on intellectual property, the ethics surrounding AI, and the challenges faced by incumbents in adapting to rapid innovation.
00:00 Introduction
00:42 Part One
00:49 Guest Introduction: Doug Shapiro
01:12 Doug Shapiro's Career Journey
02:12 The Evolution of Media Consumption
03:50 Supply and Demand in Media
07:19 Generative AI and Content Creation
10:32 The Future of Media Distribution
23:09 The Creator Economy and Power Laws
27:13 Part Two
27:30 Hollywood vs. Big Tech
30:00 AI's Impact on Hollywood: A Double-Edged Sword
30:44 Disruption in the Entertainment Industry
31:23 The Future of High-End Content
32:06 AI as a Productivity Tool in Hollywood
32:46 The Rise of AI-Enabled Studios
33:43 Introducing Sora: The Future of Content Creation
35:14 The Turing Test in Video Content
38:22 Local Content vs. Global Tent Poles
40:21 The Copyright Conundrum
41:56 The Dirty Deal: Media and Tech Collusion
48:06 The Fair Use Debate
50:59 Disruption is Hard: Lessons from Netflix
54:22 Concluding Thoughts and Future Outlook
55:42 Credits
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We're Taking A Break!
00:39|After 138 episodes and almost four years to the day since we recorded our first one, Will and Richard have decided to take a short break. We do plan to continue Bubble Trouble, and we are not short of bubbles that are causing trouble, but we want to take time to recharge and reflect on how we can make the show better than ever. We hope you’ll look back through the archives as there are so many episodes that are every bit as relevant today as they were in 2021 when we started. We’ll have word soon on when you can expect new episodes, but thanks so much for listening.An X-Rated Account of Twitter with Kurt Wagner
47:29|Who doesn’t like to talk about Twitter and Tweets? Word of mouth (or tweet) is the secret sauce of its success. But has it ever been successful? And if it hasn’t, how do you gauge the impact of Elon Musk’s shock therapy over the past two years? Journalist Kurt Wagner joins to share his deep dive profile of the tortured history of Twitter. [Repeat from May, 2024]For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.comYou can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)This episode of Bubble Trouble features a conversation with Bloomberg journalist Kurt Wagner, author of 'Battle for the Bird,' a book about Twitter's tumultuous history and evolution, particularly under Elon Musk's ownership. The hosts, independent analyst Richard Kramer and economist Will Page, delve into Twitter’s origins, its struggle to monetize effectively compared to giants like Meta, and the significant influence of Jack Dorsey’s leadership style on the platform's direction. They discuss the platform's missed opportunities, such as Vine and Periscope, and how it became a place where 'good ideas go to die.' The discussion also covers Musk's takeover, his attempts to transform Twitter into 'X', and the challenges of balancing free speech with the need for content moderation and advertiser appeal. Wagner shares insights on the potential future of 'X', the impact of Musk's leadership on the platform's advertising and user engagement, and the skepticism surrounding the 'everything app' concept Musk envisions.00:00 Introduction01:02 Part One01:02 Deep Dive with Kurt Wagner: The Story of Twitter02:36 The Origins and Evolution of Twitter06:20 Twitter's User Base and Business Model Explored09:10 The Challenges of Twitter's Business Model14:10 Board Dynamics and Google's Influence on Twitter18:03 Extravagant Spending and Corporate Culture at Twitter21:13 Reflections on Twitter's Stock Performance23:47 The Almost Disney-Twitter Deal: A Glimpse into Corporate Negotiations24:29 Twitter's Quest for a Savior and Its Struggle for Independence25:53 Missed Opportunities: The Story of Vine and Periscope27:27 Part Two27:27 Transition to Part Two: The Elon Musk Era at Twitter27:49 The Challenges of Rebranding Twitter to X and Musk's Controversial Leadership28:32 The Impact of Elon Musk's Actions on Twitter's Ad Revenue and Brand Safety36:52 The Struggle with Bots and Spam: Has It Gotten Worse?40:06 Free Speech Under Musk: A Double-Edged Sword44:26 The Everything App Ambition: A Skeptical View46:33 Closing Thoughts and Acknowledgements47:01 Credits137. Mapping the Terrain w/ Dror Poleg
50:21||Season 1, Ep. 137In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page return with guest Dror Poleg, an expert in real estate and economic history. They discuss the volatility expected in 2025, reflections on the work-from-home trend, and the dynamic interplay between geopolitics and everyday life. With insights into real estate bubbles, economic predictions, and the evolving nature of productivity, Dror offers a deep dive into how technological advancements shape our physical and economic world. The conversation also covers topics such as the challenges in the housing market, defense spending, AI investment, and the impact of geopolitical shifts. This episode is packed with thought-provoking discussions and forecasts for the near future.00:00 00:00 Introduction00:52 Part One01:00 Guest Introduction03:34 Real Estate Market Insights06:15 Challenges in Urban Development11:46 Rethinking Productivity and Inequality19:38 Future of Work and Education24:06 The Flaw of GDP and Productivity24:23 Discussing the Book: Mismatch Between Economy and World26:31 Part Two26:49 Encouraging Success and Taxing It28:47 Innovation and Public Investment Funds33:33 US Government and Defense Spending43:28 AI and the Future of Compute46:48 Closing Thoughts and Upcoming Book49:54 CreditsAll Your Eggs in One Big Tech Basket [Repeat]
42:19|This week we get into portfolio theory, or lack of, as for many the rush to big tech and wilful ignorance of everything else Wall Street has to offer seems to be the rule as opposed to the exception. Why is that, and is it sustainable? [Repeat from February, 2024]For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.comYou can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)The Magnificent Seven: Unpacking the Impact of Big US Tech StocksIn this episode, Richard Kramer and Will Page, analysts specializing in financial markets, discuss the 'Magnificent Seven', a term referring to the big US tech companies and their significant market impact. Kramer eloquently illustrates the concentration of wealth within these tech giants and their extensive media coverage, which contributes to their continual growth. They discuss the concept of long tail distributions and how it correlates with a constraint in attention leading to invested interest in just a few companies. They scrutinize the implications of concentrated wealth and potential future industry shifts, emphasizing the need for cautious investment strategies, despite the allure of being swept up in booming tech sectors.00:01 Introduction00:48 Part One00:48 The Role of Big US Tech in Portfolio Theory03:30 The Magnificent Seven: Who Are They?07:28 The Long Tail Effect in Financial Markets22:56 The Investment Thesis: Backing Big Tech23:13 Part Two23:25 The Geographic Disparity in Big Tech38:09 Smoke Signals: Indicators of Market Shifts41:41 Conclusion: The Future of Big Tech Investments41:54 Credits136. Taking Stock Before a Bubbly Year
47:42||Season 1, Ep. 136We have had over 30 episodes of Bubble Trouble this year, and had some real highlights along with a mad world we are living in. And now after a predictions show with Benedict Evans last week, we move on to our own look back to highlight the must-listen shows of 2024 and turn to the top troubles with bubbles to watch out for in 2025.Will’s favorite shows of 2024:Law Without Lawyers: A Conversation with Damien RiehlThe Meltdown of Credit Suisse w/ Duncan MavinYou Can't Lead If You Don't Know Where You're GoingRichards favorite shows of 2024:AI Supremacy and Ethical Dilemmas: A Conversation with Parmy OlsonKill the Chicken to Scare The Monkey with guest Linda YuehThe Meltdown of Credit Suisse w/ Duncan MavinFiscal Drag QueenThames Water gets Whacked with guest Feargal SharkeyWill’s folder of research reports: HEREFor more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.comYou can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)Bubble Trouble Year-End Review: Top Episodes and Predictions for 202500:00 Introduction and Year in Review00:33 Part One00:41 Predictions and Highlights of 202401:16 Memorable Moments and Listener Feedback02:44 Bronze Medal: Bill Raduchel’s Insight04:58 Silver Medal: Duncan Maven and Credit Suisse07:43 Gold Medal: Law Without Lawyers11:09 Richard's Oscar Categories13:48 Social Impact: Fergal Sharky on Water Management17:36 Market Bubbles and Fiscal Policies22:13 Closing Thoughts and Part Two Teaser22:38 Part Two22:59 Predictions and Skepticism23:32 AI and the Rationalization of Apps24:47 Winners and Losers in the AI Era25:57 The Future of Review Platforms28:28 Emerging Companies to Watch35:13 Market Trends and Volatility40:36 The Crisis in Journalism44:40 AI Hype vs. Reality45:57 Closing Thoughts and Reflections47:14 Credits135. Into the Future with Benedict Evans
46:57||Season 1, Ep. 135Back by popular demand, returning guest Benedict Evans to help us work out where we’ll be a year from now. This is our first predictions show, and Benedict has been brave enough to lead from the front with his latest presentation AI Eats the World. Will it? And if it does, what sort of indigestion will it bring? We double down on what the next twelve months will bring given the avalanche of “events-dear-boy-events” we’ve witnessed in the last twelve. For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.comYou can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)Join hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page in one of the final episodes of 2024 as they team up with independent analyst Richard Kramer and economist and author Will Page, alongside returning guest Benedict Evans. In this prediction-packed episode, the trio dives into the year-long buzz around AI. They dissect the concept of 'AI Eats the World' — exploring if AI truly has the transformative power it's touted to have and what potential pitfalls could arise. From decoding AI trends to the proliferation of machine learning across industries, this episode provides a candid discussion on the future of AI, its impacts, and the upcoming challenges. Plus, they explore legal implications, the role of consultancy giants like Accenture in the AI wave, and the future landscape of professions impacted by AI innovations. Don't miss this insightful deep dive into what technology and AI advancements might hold for the year ahead.00:00 Introduction and Show Setup00:46 Part One01:19 Understanding AI and Machine Learning03:46 AI's Practical Applications07:06 AI in the Legal Profession15:58 Jevons Paradox and AI's Future Impact21:01 Part Two25:01 Creative Brainstorming with AI25:11 The Value of Unique Perspectives25:53 Skepticism Towards Big Consultancies26:55 Accenture's Role in AI28:33 Generative AI in Business31:37 The Democratization of AI34:02 AI's Impact on Various Industries41:19 Future of AI in Media and Entertainment45:51 Closing Thoughts and Reflections46:38 CreditsWhy Stocks Get Whacked
47:24|When markets get fooled, stocks get …well, WHACKED, to quote a famous Kramerism. Our audience deserves to know more about volatility - for all the PhDs, MBAs and CFAs working on Wall Street, for all the compliance rules and regulations, why is it that a stock can go from hero to zero so quickly? Why is stability in itself destabilizing? [Repeat from May, 2024]For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.comYou can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)Understanding Market Volatility: The Seven Deadly Sins That Get Stocks WhackedIn this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosted by independent analyst Richard Kramer and economist Will Page, the duo delves into the intricacies of stock market volatility and the factors that lead to significant drops in stock values, often referred to as getting 'whacked.' They explore why financial markets remain volatile despite compliance rules and thorough analysis by Wall Street's experts. Using recent examples like Duolingo and Double Verify, they highlight how sentiment, market expectations, and artificial intelligence fears influence stock performance. They introduce the concept of the seven deadly sins—ranging from expectations management to fake it till you make it—that companies and analysts commit, causing stocks to tank. The discussion covers essential themes like the role of credibility, influence of peer performance, external market factors, and the impact of fear and greed. They also touch on larger market dynamics, such as the dominance of tech giants and the influence of algorithmic trading. The episode is both an educational dive into market mechanics and a cautionary tale for investors, emphasizing the importance of understanding broader market sentiments and the potential pitfalls of speculative trading.00:00 Introduction01:18 Part One02:30 Recent Examples of Stocks Getting Whacked06:08 The Role of Expectations in Market Behavior10:53 Credibility and Its Impact on Stocks16:17 The Influence of Peer Groups and Market Share18:19 Mathematical Models and Black Swans23:09 Part Two24:15 The Sheer Size of Companies and Market Impact25:13 Big Companies and Revenue Growth Challenges26:33 Market Dynamics and Money Managers27:04 Thought Experiment: Market Crowding28:53 Taxing Market Capitalization34:18 Fear and Greed in Financial Markets40:11 Unprofitable IPOs and Market Distortions42:47 Seven Deadly Sins of Stock Trading46:22 Conclusion and Final Thoughts46:53 Credits134. How Much Is Copyright Worth?
42:34||Season 1, Ep. 134In the last couple episodes, we've looked at the property market, we've looked at the demise of Credit Suisse, but now we're gonna go one-on-one with Will Page, talking about his latest work: How much is copyright worth and the way in which music is having its own, getting back at cinema.For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.comYou can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.comIn this episode of Bubble Trouble, Richard Kramer and economist Will Page dive into the fascinating world of music copyright. They explore the market value, currently pegged at $45.5 billion, and discuss what this number entails, including the roles of record labels, collecting societies, and publishers. They delve deep into the growing significance of vinyl records, the influence of streaming services, and the striking impact of globalization on music trade flows. Additionally, they discuss new market opportunities, the potential for further growth, and the future of direct artist-to-fan engagements. Join the conversation to understand the changing dynamics of the music industry and the economic forces shaping it.00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble00:35 Part One01:10 Exploring the Value of Copyright02:23 The Economics of Music Copyright07:12 Streaming vs. Cinema: A Shift in Consumption17:08 The Vinyl Revival19:31 Part Two19:31 Global Impact of Music Copyright22:32 The Global Impact of Reggaeton22:47 Economic Disparities in Music Streaming23:25 The Big Mac Index and Media Trade24:50 K-Pop's Global Dominance26:20 The Role of Government in Music Industry Success28:36 Canada's Multicultural Music Scene30:06 The Rise of Punjabi-Canadian Artists33:12 The Future of Music Copyright and Streaming37:41 Direct Artist-to-Fan Relationships40:50 Emerging Markets and the Future of Copyright41:51 Conclusion and Future Episodes