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Bubble Trouble: Laying Out Inconvenient Truths About How Business and Financial Markets Really Work
Bubble Trouble features conversations between economist and author Will Page and independent analyst Richard Kramer that lay out some inconvenient truths about how financial markets really work. Like the “boy who cried wolf,” financial markets have a...
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Fiscal Drag Queen
47:58|This week, we’re talking taxes. Don’t switch off, don’t fall asleep and please don’t hire an accountant as the next 45 minutes will defy the laws of gravity and make taxes sexy. Or make saxes testy… [Repeat from March, 2024.]Mentioned in today’s show: Barbarians at the Gate: https://youtu.be/Z3HiONtjZSM?si=xZ64zb46sYIfSs5ZFor more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.comYou can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)In this engaging episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page explore the complex world of taxes with humor and depth. They discuss the UK's tax system, the incentives it creates, and its contribution to economic inequalities. The duo delves into the problems of the tax code, including issues surrounding tax avoidance by the wealthy, lack of public sector productivity improvements, and the inefficiencies within the HMRC. Kramer and Page critique the approach of privatizing public utilities and the potential problems with private equity in the public sector. They also touch on broader issues like the lack of investment in tax authority systems and propose using tax policies for positive changes, like encouraging the shift from petrol to electric cars in Denmark. Through their insightful conversation, Kramer and Page aim to demystify taxes and highlight their significant impact on society.00:00 Introduction00:46 Part One00:51 The UK's Budget Week and Tax System Insights01:48 Tax Evasion vs. Public Sector Productivity02:46 The Inequality of Tax Codes: A Global Issue04:03 Tax System Flaws and Their Impact on Society07:22 VAT: The Taxpayer as Tax Collector11:31 The Complexity of National Insurance13:43 Simplifying Tax Systems: A Call for Transparency16:28 Private Equity and Tax Systems: A New Challenge22:39 Decoding the Fiscal Drag Queen23:00 The Political Divide on Taxation23:21 Economic Lecture: Tax Burden and Growth25:07 The Impact of Fiscal Drag on Tax Bands26:15 The Surprising Windfall from Fiscal Drag27:22 Part Two27:45 Exploring the World of Private Equity28:51 The Tax Loopholes Fueling Private Equity32:24 The Potential Bubble in Public Utilities36:26 The Disconnect Between Tax Policy and Reality43:58 A Positive Tax Example from Denmark47:28 Credits
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131. Sonic Shifts: How Tech and Culture are Changing the Music Industry with Mark Mulligan
52:15||Season 1, Ep. 131This week we welcome Mark Mulligan of MIDiA Research who has had a ringside seat for years and years of bubbles, be it the creator economy, NFTs or AI music, or just everyone claiming they are gaining market share at the same time. He is the founder and driving force behind the tiny little company that an entire industry looks to as the source of truth.For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.comYou can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page are joined by Mark Mulligan, a leading music industry analyst and founder of MIDiA Research. They delve into the intricate world of the music industry, discussing the evolution from digital streaming to the rise of new phenomena such as NFTs and AI in music. The trio explores the concept of bifurcation in markets and the distinction between high-end experiences versus bargain deals within the industry. The conversation also touches on the significant cultural shifts, the role of trade associations, and the future of personalized music experiences. Despite the optimism around technology, the hosts remain critical of mainstream narratives, emphasizing the importance of genuine innovation and realistic market assessments. This insightful and provocative discussion is a must-listen for anyone interested in the intersection of music, technology, and finance.00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble01:02 Welcoming Special Guest Mark Mulligan01:26 Mark Mulligan's Background and Insights02:34 The Evolution of Music Supply04:20 The Democratization of Music Creation06:13 AI and the Future of Music12:16 Fragmentation and Hyper-Targeting in Media13:40 The Role of Superstars and Long Tail Creators19:20 Streaming Platforms: Carnivores vs. Herbivores25:45 TikTok's Influence on the Music Industry27:33 Part Two28:38 Diving into the Music Industry's Hype30:08 Constructive Criticism in Emerging Technologies30:39 The Metaverse and NFTs: A Skeptical View31:28 Frameworks for Assessing New Technologies33:10 The Future of Digital Fandom35:15 Bifurcation in the Market43:07 Pendulum Swings in Technology Adoption44:54 Lessons from the Aviation Industry46:29 Final Thoughts and Predictions52:00 Credits130. New Media Overtaking Old Media with Lauren Jarvis
48:54||Season 1, Ep. 130Podcasts are having another moment: Trump on Joe Rogan, Kamala on Call Her Daddy. New media is overtaking old media in audience and influence. Back in early 2023, we welcomed guest Lauren Jarvis, who helped bring Rogan to Spotify and growing podcasts into the medium we see today. Given this week’s election mania, we bring Lauren back to make sense of it all. For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.comYou can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)The Podcast Boom: Analyzing Influence and the Future of MediaIn this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page delve into the evolving landscape of the podcast industry with guest Lauren Jarvis. They discuss the resurgence of podcasts as a significant media platform, touching on notable examples like Joe Rogan's recent Trump interview. The conversation also covers the economic potential of podcasts, their role in reaching new audiences, and the gamification of learning as a growing trend in tech. Jarvis shares insights on the integration of technology into daily life and the future of media consumption.00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble00:59 Part One02:52 Political Influence of Podcasts05:26 Audience Engagement and Monetization09:09 The Future of Media Consumption22:11 Part Two22:13 Tech Trends and Predictions37:46 AI and Data Utilization46:12 Closing Thoughts and Farewell48:33 CreditsSolving for X
01:02:57|Repeat from November, 2023.For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.comYou can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.comIn this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page engage in an in-depth discussion with Alex Kantrowitz, veteran tech journalist and founder of Big Technology. The discussion provides insights on some of the issues and dilemmas facing Twitter (now called X) under the leadership of Elon Musk. Kantrowitz offers valuable perspectives on the changing dynamics in the tech world, touching on the rise of Reddit, problems with 'Threads', and the impact of new leadership on Twitter's performance and brand value. The conversation also delves into the principle of 'Effective Altruism' prevalent in Silicon Valley and what it signifies about tech leadership. Analysis of recent data reveals Twitter's shrinking user base and engagement, though it remains a highly popular app. The episode wraps with Kantrowitz sharing about his newsletter 'Big Technology', and its recent features.00:00 Introduction and Welcome00:46 Part One00:52 Interview with Tech Journalist Alex Kantrowicz02:17 Exploring Twitter's History and Business Model06:52 Twitter's Influence and Impact on Journalism07:32 The Decline of Traditional Media and the Rise of Digital Platforms08:45 Twitter's Role in the Attention Economy09:54 Twitter's Popularity and Influence Despite Declining Numbers15:06 Analyzing Twitter's User Data and Trends28:47 Part Two32:37 The Future of Twitter: Cyclical or Structural Decline?36:26 Twitter's Competition: Reddit and Threads36:34 The Struggles of Threads36:59 The Power of Network Effects38:17 The Limitations of Threads39:48 The Rise of Reddit40:04 The Role of Reddit in the Social Media Landscape40:54 The Impact of Pocket App on Twitter41:25 The Irrelevance of Threads and the Power of Meta44:20 The Challenges Twitter Faces45:50 Potential Strategies to Save Twitter49:32 The Future of Twitter Under Musk's Leadership54:51 The Role of Effective Altruism in Tech Companies58:57 The Danger of Singular Solutions59:27 The Value of Comments and the Future of Twitter01:01:38 Closing Remarks and Promotion of Big Technology01:02:34 Credits129. When Companies Outgrow Countries
37:09||Season 1, Ep. 129The past week has seen US stocks–and gold, btw–rally to record highs. This week, we’re going to apply the magnifying glass to the ‘Magnificent Seven’ that are driving this rally and ask what happens when the sheer size of these US corporations, or corporate value, starts to overtake individual European stock markets. That’s right - any one of these US companies are worth more than British or German capitalism. With an election on the horizon, time to figure out what this all means.For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.comYou can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)Bubble Trouble: Giants of Global Markets and Economic QuandariesIn this episode of Bubble Trouble, Richard Kramer and Will Page explore the dominance of the 'Magnificent Seven' US corporations in the recent stock market rally and their comparison to European markets. They discuss the significant influence of American tech CEOs versus their European counterparts, global lobbying efforts by big tech, and the economic impact of major tech product launches like Apple's iPhone 16 on UK retail sales. The episode analyzes the UK's economic challenges, governmental budget constraints, and tax policy trade-offs, including the freezing of tax thresholds. The hosts delve into the broader societal and economic consequences of media monopolies, infrastructure investments, and the peculiarities of contemporary political landscapes. 00:00 00:00 Introduction00:55 Part One01:00 Feedback and OpenAI Discussion02:41 The Magnificent Seven: US Companies vs. European Markets04:29 Comparing Market Values07:26 Future Projections and Power Dynamics12:50 European Response and Regulatory Challenges15:49 Investment Strategies and Market Resilience18:21 Retail Sales and Apple's Influence19:30 Part Two19:30 UK's Economic Challenges and Government Budget22:19 Tax Policies and Fiscal Strategies30:18 The Impact of Media and Big Tech35:29 Concluding Thoughts and Audience Engagement36:49 Credits128. BT 128 Labour’s 100 Days: No Bubbles, Some Troubles
33:43||Season 1, Ep. 128We thought we’d get a little political on this week’s show. Are we serving up a bubble that was a landslide UK election, or is the new government trouble a bubble? And we want to deconstruct Will’s Pessimism Paradox as it applies to the place we most often seen bubbles, in high finance where the less certain the outcomes to higher the markets go.For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.comYou can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)Deconstructing Economic Pessimism in the Wake of a New GovernmentIn this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page discuss the political and economic landscape in the UK following the first 100 days of a new government. They analyze the concept of political and economic bubbles, questioning whether pessimism dominates current narratives. The discussion spans issues like the impact of the cloud on GDP measurement, tax policies, and the importance of attracting talent over traditional economic metrics. The hosts also delve into the role of economists’ outlooks during different economic conditions. The episode underscores the significance of focusing on new strategies and the long-term impact of political decisions, highlighting the government and economic system's current challenges.00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble00:44 Part One00:50 Analyzing the New Government's First 100 Days03:56 The Pessimism Paradox Explained14:13 Debating Economic Growth and GDP18:59 Part Two19:19 Tax Policies and Economic Challenges25:23 The Talent Competition and Immigration28:57 Reflections on Political Labels and Strategy32:47 Conclusion and Listener Engagement33:25 Credits127. Open AI: For What It's Worth
44:07||Season 1, Ep. 127We always try to flag the smoke signals of mischievous market behaviour that gets society and stock portfolios into trouble. Are we about to get fooled again by the hype and hysteria surrounding the poster child Open AI? Or maybe, just maybe, it’s worth joining us for 30 minutes to find what really sits behind a 150bn valuation and ask whether beauty is in the eye of the beholder?For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.comYou can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)In the latest episode of Bubble Trouble, co-hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page dive into the hype surrounding OpenAI, now valued at $150 billion. They examine the risks of market hype and hysteria behind this soaring valuation, discussing the broader implications for society and the tech industry. The episode explores the nuances of company valuations, comparing public versus private market insights and the lack of transparency in the private sector. With references to past tech bubbles, the hosts analyze the potential conflicts of interest among investors and question the sustainability of current trajectories in tech valuations. As they await the next bubble to burst, Kramer and Page emphasize the importance of scrutinizing underlying business fundamentals in an era of outsized market valuations.00:00 Introduction00:49 Part One01:04 The AI Hype and OpenAI's Valuation03:25 Understanding Company Valuations06:32 Public vs Private Market Valuations10:56 The Transparency Challenge in Tech15:26 Reflecting on Past Episodes and Lessons21:12 Part Two21:49 The Role of Central Banks in Market Bubbles25:32 Exploring OpenAI's Valuation and Market Dynamics36:09 Smoke Signals and Future Predictions43:46 Credits