Asia Pacific Defense Report

Why does the Australian government show so little enthusiasm for increasing the amount of aid going to Ukraine? Doing so is overwhelmingly popular with about 80% of Australians in favour. However, it looks like the government and our officials are doing just enough to tick a few boxes. At a minimum a single person with a lot of authority needs to be put in charge of the aid program – and they need to get moving. Then a media trip to a factory in the Queensland town of Maryborough that manufactures 155mm artillery shells – and all of them are purchased by the German government before finding their way to Ukraine. A Joint Venture between Australian company NIOA and Germany’s Rheinmetall Waffe Munition, it could form an essential part of a sovereign 155mm projectile capability – but again that requires a decision followed by action. Finally a few words about AUKUS and Virginia class submarines – we do the maths and figure which ones we might receive.

We return to some favourite themes: nuclear powered submarines; Taipan helicopters; and aid for Ukraine. But before that a few words about the Middle East and what looks to be a further deterioration in an already bad situation. Everyone shares blame, but it’s worth noting that major demographic changes mean that Israel is different from the country in the 1970s that many of us found inspirational. It must occur to people that there are some in Israel who don’t want peace with Hamas but will happily continue bombing Gaza until nothing remains. Equally, leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah don’t care how many of their own people die. After that, why cannot VADM Jonathon Mead – or the government - answer the simple question: what happens if the US cannot lift the production rate of Virginia class submarines to 2:33 per year.? It’s a very simple question without an answer. We conclude with updates on last year’s Taipan helicopter ditching and problems with the flow of aid to Ukraine.

This is the Land Forces exhibition special feature with some random highlights from the show last week. These included an uncrewed 8-wheeled armoured ground vehicle enabled by AI and designed by BAE Systems to operate with conventional forces. Also SPEE3D, an Australian company using additive manufacturing to undertake in-field repairs. Despite international success – including sending units to Ukraine – do you think the Australian Army has bought any? A few words about Hanwha, the South Korean company that has gone from obscurity to now being the largest supplier, by dollar value, to the Army. They have announced that Sydney-based Advanced Navigation will become part of their global supply chains, which should be a huge boost to business. And some unexpected success – Chief of the Army has agreed to an interview to discuss the Taipan helicopter fiasco (my words, not his). Let’s hope other senior figures also push back against ridiculous Ministerial interference in what they can say in public.

The government and the Australian Submarine Agency are up to their usual tricks of minimising scrutiny by playing media favourites. Not only is this wrong in principle it’s a symptom of deeper problems in the ASA – and there will be a lot more coming out about that in the next few days. People who know what they are doing enjoy having their ideas challenged and it is generally the poor performers who prefer to hide. And with that in mind, our squabble with Army over the destruction of the Taipan helicopter fleet continues. Why does it matter any longer now that the damage has been done? Two reasons – this fiasco should never be repeated; and secondly, let’s have some accountability. Army have been concealing true support costs for years – and we blow the whistle on some of those. Finally, the General Purpose Frigate program and could we be seeing a tiny glimpse of sanity?

Unusually, we can start with two pieces of positive news. On August 22, Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy announced that the government will spend $850 million on a factory in Newcastle that will produce Naval Strike Missiles and Joint Strike Missiles. These come from Norwegian company Kongsberg and will drastically improve the anti-ship capabilities of the ADF. This follows a decision to also manufacture GMLRS rounds locally for Army’s HIMARS launchers. After a slow start the GWEO is developing some momentum. On the next day, Defence Minister Richard Marles opened Hanwha’s armoured vehicle centre of excellence near Avalon airport. It will build Huntsman 155mm Self Propelled Howitzers and tracked Redback Infantry Fighting Vehicles – another positive for Australian manufacturing. Finally, the 3-way technology sharing agreement between the US, UK and Australia is already showing some major deficiencies. No surprise there.

There’s more AUKUS stupidity to talk about, with now a secret political deal with the US and UK to be factored in. It is so secret that Prime Minister Anthony Albanese doesn’t seem to have any idea what it’s about. There’s speculation that it could compel Australia to go to war with China over Taiwan – but that issue is more nuanced than most people understand. Or could it be about the storage in Australia of high level nuclear waste from other countries – which seems irrelevant since we will be storing many hundreds of tonnes of high level waste from our own decommissioned submarines. Why is the media incapable of asking obvious follow up questions? The only way left to reform the system is to start a new political party called Transparent Government and start taking seats off Labor, preferably including Corio, currently held by Richard Marles. Finally some wise words from David Sanger, one of the best and most knowledgeable national security journalists in the US.

A poor start from new CDF Admiral David Johnson, who told ABC News Breakfast television that every day sees an increase in ADF capability. The opposite appears to be the case with Navy in particular going backwards, followed by the Army – and for the next 10 years the RAAF isn’t receiving anything new thanks to budget restrictions. Spotted during Exercise Talisman Sabre – Defence Minister Richard Marles riding in an Italian NH90 helicopter, which is almost identical to the 45 Australian Taipans he ordered destroyed in September last year. Might he have had the thought “how come the Italians can support these helicopters when the Australian Army could not?” Then it looks like there’s a coordinated push back against criticism of AUKUS Pillar One, so we pour a bit more fuel over that particular fire. Finally an anecdote about Ministerial pomposity – or rather the lack of it – from the 1980s.

We have been at the Indian Ocean Defence and Security (IODS) conference in Perth – so plenty of naval things to talk about. First, ASA Head VADM Jonathon Mead refreshingly and honestly said that there were many obstacles to overcome before nuclear-powered submarines could be delivered, a nice change from the previous rhetoric that everything was fine. Speaking with well qualified industry people from the US and UK, the consensus is that Australia is already a decade behind where we need to be with factors such as training and infrastructure. Then a remarkable offer from the Korean government to deliver the first General Purpose Frigate by 2029 and the next two by 2030 if either Hyundai or Hanwha are selected. Finally, what do people not understand about the Luerssen corvette offer? It’s all about maintaining the Arafura supply chain and getting very rapid capability to the RAN. And we do a bit of character assassination along the way.