Asia Pacific Defense Report

Before we resume discussing the US media tour, we see that Collins class submarine sustainment has been put on the government’s Projects of Concern list. ASC, the company responsible, is legally owned by the Minister for Finance, so it’s one Minister putting another on notice. When you add the review into the Australian Submarine Agency to the mix it seems there are problems with the entire submarine enterprise – but a mere two months ago the Chief of Navy criticised the media for being too negative. Next, vertical launch missile systems and the Lockheed Martin Mk 70 that holds Harpoon and SM-6 could easily go on the Arafura OPVs – an idea so good it will be totally ignored by the RAN. Finally, we visited Sikorsky in Stratford, the Lockheed Martin company building the UH-60M Black Hawk, currently being delivered to Australia. This is an excellent, reliable helicopter that will be easier for the Australian Army to maintain – especially with the money that they are throwing at it. Does it justify the decision to destroy the Taipan helicopter fleet? Of course not.

This podcast is coming from the USA but let’s start with the review of the Australian Submarine Agency, which came to light last week. This will be conducted by Dennis Richardson, one of the most pro-US people in the national security domain – so don’t be expecting any changes to the objectives of AUKUS Pillar One, just some fine tuning of methods. Next is an update of the F-35 program and the Block 4 upgrade, which has been installed on Australia’s final nine aircraft and will be retrofitted to the entire fleet. Let’s compare them with the capabilities of a Virginia class submarine – and 6 or 7 F-35s can deliver as many weapons as a single SSN. A submarine goes to sea with 40 weapons on board for a three month mission. F-35s can fly backwards and forwards, refuel and rearm – and continue attacking enemy targets day after day. Submarines are limited to the weapons they have when they leave port. Which is better value for money? Finally a few words on the end of the Assad regime in Syria: it won’t be missed.

In this initial Defence industry chat, we discuss Navantia Australia’s Technical Partner Network. As Jamie Gibbs explains, Navantia Australia is creating a network of local suppliers that will improve sovereign capability across the naval support domain. That’s a view shared by two of their partners, Rubicon Associates and Marenav, with both companies enthusiastic about the concept. As John Robertson and Adam Smith (not the famous 18th century economist) describe, this approach greatly benefits strategic self reliance.

In this episode we cover the two big Defence stories that broke last week: the emergency funding request in the US to prop up Virginia class submarine construction and secondly the Japanese government granting approval for the potential sale to Australia of Mogami class frigates. With the frigates, the Australian government, Defence and the RAN are now in serious danger of creating a false expectation that Japan is going to win this deal, no matter what. Unless this is true – in which case why bother with a competition – expectations need to be lowered because all that Tokyo is hearing is that Australia considers the relationship with Japan to be strategically vital. If the competition is real the quickest way of calming things down is for the competitors to be allowed to openly speak about what they are offering. Next, nuclear-powered submarine production in the US is slowing down – and the Australian Submarine Agency remains in complete denial. We know for a fact that production is slowing because the USN has said it is. That’s just a fact and no amount of talking up bipartisan support in Congress makes the slightest difference to reality. And guess what – the US is already practising its lines for when all of this goes bad.

The SEA 3000 General Purpose Frigate shortlist has been confirmed and unsurprisingly the leaked information is correct – it’s Germany and Japan. But obviously it couldn’t be that simple, so two designs from Thyssenkrupp will be evaluated and one from Mitsubishi Heavy Industries. However, the MHI ship the Mogami FFM has not yet been built, with the first to be delivered in 2027. This would seem to indicate it is already in breach of Defence guidelines,, which are for an existing design. But it’s even worse, with Chief of Navy telling Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy that the RAN is happy to take any combat system, throwing 30 years of work standardising around the Saab 9LV CMS into the bin. Then another sad story of an exceptional Australian company DroneShield selling its leading edge counter drone technology all around the world – just not in Australia. Instead, for a perimeter security requirement the RAAF recently awarded a $30 million contract to Anduril, the US company funded by tech billionaires. It’s enough to make one scream, along with a few other topics.

First some unfinished business from the Submarine Institute of Australia conference. The Chief of Navy asks why aren’t there more positive stories about Collins submarines? The reason is quite simple: because you won’t tell us anything. This goes for the other services as well – you cannot complain about lack of coverage if you deliberately suppress the release of information. That’s something that Defence Minister Richard Marles knows well. It’s the definition of hypocrisy: say you are in favour of communicating with the Australian public and then obstruct journalists from doing their job. Some words about the new Trump administration starting to take shape and the surprisingly large amount of publicity about our current Ambassador – and former Labor PM – Kevin Rudd. Deciding who the Australian Ambassador should be is a decision for us – not anyone else. As for the eternal bonds of friendship between the US and Australia – when Trump was last President he didn’t even bother appointing an Ambassador here until the end of his term. That’s a clear indication of the importance Trump attaches to Australia. None.

Our previous analysis of the US Presidential election was wrong – and by a wide margin. Obviously there’s a huge level of anger, resentment and frustration in the American system. Donald Trump has won a bigger victory than in 2016 – and the consequences for Australia are unknown. Any Australian politician assuming it’s business as usual runs the risk of making a major mistake. What do we do if Donald Trump jacks up the cost of acquiring nuclear-powered submarines by a lot? Has anyone in Defence or the government thought through those consequences? And please don’t say it could never happen. A quick summary of SEA 3000 – and it’s between Germany and Japan. Then the Submarine Institute of Australia conference where Chief of Navy mistakenly re-read his 2023 speech and during which journalists were told they would be kicked out of the venue if they approached anyone at morning tea to say hello. The Virginia class program is in big trouble because of supply chain issues – but you will never hear that from an Australian official. Finally, Army’s campaign of deception about the performance of Black Hawk helicopters continues. Someone has to put a stop to this outrage – it’s wrong at every possible level.

We start with Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy at the NPC last week and lots of stuff about extra missiles for the ADF. That’s all well and good – but these things are either fully imported or, at best, manufactured under license here with a few local components. There are no longer any sovereign Australian IP in weapons – we seem to have collectively given up on the idea of designing any ourselves. The latest from the mess that is AUKUS Pillar One. Then a few words about the shock cancellation of JP9102. There goes the last chance of any form of sovereign satellite communications capability – it’s back to bad old days of having to go cap in hand to the US for some bandwidth – and then being charged a fortune for it. Finally, the shortlist for SEA 3000 the General Purpose Frigates approaches – and golly gosh what an unmitigated disaster this project is.

In this episode we have some truly stunning – and worrying – information that the rate of US nuclear powered submarine construction is slowing down, not speeding up. The information is on the public record and comes from the CEO of Electric Boat, Phebe Novakovic in a briefing for shareholders. The problem is with the supply chain – companies manufacturing critical components cannot keep up with the required rate and as a consequence both the Columbia class SSBNs and Virginia SSNs will be delayed. This must be worrying news for the RAN – and it seems astounding that there has been no reporting of note in Australia about a development that could completely derail AUKUS Pillar One. The US also seems to be counting on Australia lifting Defence expenditure so that it can afford these submarines without cutting other capabilities – but that is exactly what has already started to happen. Finally, Defence officials have once again managed to get their way and have hounded German shipbuilding company Luerssen out of Australia.