Asia Pacific Defence Reporter

We bring you a special edition podcast from the Greek island of Zakinthos to discuss the current US administration’s review of AUKUS. It’s rather ominously worded to see if it fits President Donald Trump’s “America First” agenda. Why do we always need to find out about these things from the Americans? Why can’t our own Defence Minister Richard Marles ever come clean about things such as how much we are giving to the US, and why they want us to lift Defence expenditure to 3.5% of GDP? As for the review itself, why would the US want to end the deal when there are still billions more dollars to be extracted from Australian taxpayers and gullible politicians?

After the previous podcast, many people might have been hoping for a description of the TKMS bid for SEA 3000. Sorry to disappoint, but the rules imposed by Defence block that, and we have figured out who is to blame. It's the probity lawyers - what a surprise. The media visit to Germany focused entirely on the parent yard build of the first three ships, and there is no doubt that TKMS and partner companies will be able to do that without working up a sweat. Then, some personal thoughts on strategic partnerships. Many people believe the relationship with Japan is so important that the Mogami should be automatically selected. But does it make sense to base partnerships on the purchase of equipment? Wouldn't it be better for that to be the domain of treaties and security guarantees? And shouldn't buying stuff work both ways if it's so important? Also, Ukraine is using drones to revolutionise warfare. We told you so.

Greetings from the northern German city of Hamburg and the beginning of a Thyssen Krupp Marine Systems media tour. They are one of two finalists for SEA 3000, the general purpose frigate project, but they are forbidden by Defence from discussing their proposal. This ridiculous level of secrecy seems to be in place purely to conceal Departmental incompetence and to cover up the growing possibility that no frigates will be built in Australia, ever.Some words about US demands that Australia increase Defence spending to as much as 5% of GDP and what looks like a major difference of opinion between the PM and Defence Minister as to whether or not we give in to that pressure.Then some details of an article in June APDR that AUKUS Pillar One has very little chance of success written by Dr Hans Ohff, Managing Director of the Australian Submarine Corporation during the critical years of the Collins program. Unlike politicians and bureaucrats he actually knows how difficult it is to successfully deliver submarines - and Australia is falling well short.

With Canberra starting to return to normal we have a bit more to discuss on the domestic front. Firstly a thank you to Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy, who agreed to an interview that will be published in full in June APDR. It was a wide ranging chat and we will continue to have different views on matters such as the Defence budget and also secrecy - but it's good to be in dialogue. Also during the week, a senior TKMS delegation was in town to discuss SEA 3000 and they are promoting the MEKO 200 as a low risk solution for Australia. On the international scene, tariff stupidity continues with Donald Trump threatening Europe with 50% on June 1 and the US company Apple with 25% if they continue making iPhones offshore. If Australian politicians want to get into the game of appeasing Trump, maybe we should offer to build a mega yacht for him.

We start with a clarification from the previous episode that Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy has retained responsibility for capability delivery, even though those words have been removed from his title.  And then a lot more about the unreliability of the US as an ally - a reality so obvious that everyone can see it, except for Australian politicians. The update of the list now includes the US coming to some sort of deal with the Houthis - ignoring everyone else - as well as having direct talks with Hamas and Iran. Israel wasn't even included on Trump's itinerary for his Middle East trip, possibly because they don't have any gold and marble palaces stuffed full of grovelling courtiers.Then let's at least have a laugh about Qatar's bribe of a luxury 747. No one in their right mind would accept it on cost grounds alone. Let's see what happens when the US demands Australia increase Defence spending to 3% of GDP.

We have a new Federal government ministry - and it's very much like the old one. Richard Marles retains Defence and Pat Conroy Defence Industry, though with the 'capability delivery" element seemingly removed. This was preceded by Richard Marles using his factional muscle to get rid of two highly competent Ministers in the form of Mark Dreyfus and Ed Husic. Let's backtrack a bit and review the only national security topic in the entire election campaign - whether Russia had requested a permanent military base on Indonesian soil. This cannot be ruled out because of the often opaque nature of Indonesian politics.  Then President Trump's failed trade war against China - though people shouldn't be celebrating just yet. Another feature of the new US administration is that it's making it clear it's available to the highest bidder.

The election result is a surprisingly strong win for Labor, but it's important to understand the basis for that. Yes, the Coalition ran a poor campaign and the ALP a good one - but the real reason for a reversal in poll numbers during the last 4 months is because of the Trump Effect, similar to what has occurred in Canada.  It's important not to lose sight of the big picture - Trump's tariff war risks destroying the global economy and Australia will not be insulated from the consequences. Let's go down memory lane with what happened in this region last time the US did this in 1930 with the Smoot Hawley tariffs. Most people know what happened in Europe with the rise of the Nazis in Germany. Less well known is the effect on Japan, which was also devastated by the tariffs and used their colony of Korea to seize all of Manchuria in 1931, the precursor to the full blown invasion of China 6 years later. The new Australian government should be doing its best to deter the actions of the Trump administration not aid and abet them.

This Federal election 2025 special podcast starts with the shocking news that the government is offering nothing new on the Defence and national security front - and the opposition isn't much better. For Australians interested in topics other than the most dull, mundane, routine "news" they will have to go elsewhere than the election campaign and the woeful performance of much of the media. The US is radically transforming in front of our eyes, realigning with Russia and other authoritarian regimes. President Donald Trump's trade war is in the process of wrecking the US economy - and unless he changes direction, within a few weeks 500,000 jobs will be lost in California alone. This is a rapidly sinking ship - but you won't hear a word of that from the major Australian political parties.

Economic turmoil continues in the US with almost daily shifts in the tariff war being conducted against everyone except Russia. The self-destructive economic behaviour of the Trump administration is likely to drive countries in our region much closer to China - something that will have major implications for Australian security. Not that you will hear a word about that from any of our head in the sand politicians. Then some words about the movie The Downfall and the ability of some politicians to live in a fantasy world, ignoring all of the evidence in front of them. The Australian people are being told two big lies: that the US relationship is as rock solid as ever and that massive increases to our Defence budget are underway. Neither is true.