Asia Pacific Defense Report

The unreliability of the US as an ally continues to be demonstrated with President Donald Trump publicly reinforcing his wish to turn Canada into the 51st State - but you won't hear that from any Australian politicians because they are too weak to speak out in defence of a Five Eyes ally. We quote at length from Singapore's Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen, who says the US is no longer a reliable ally but instead is behaving like a "rent seeker." He warns that a political earthquake has happened and that a tsunami is coming, and we must be prepared. This message has been heard in Europe and throughout the Indo-Pacific, just not by Australia. Some words about Canada purchasing Australia's JORN system - possibly as part of a move to decouple from the US. Regarding AUKUS Pillar one, we have some new jargon from Defence Minister Richard Marles: it's apparently a "treaty level agreement" - except there's no such thing. Either you have a treaty, or you do not. Clearly, there is no AUKUS treaty - just empty words and promises from an ally who demonstrably can no longer be trusted.

The shock waves from the US betrayal of Ukraine and their threats against Canada and Denmark are being felt all around the world, except in Australia where politicians and the media have their heads firmly in the sand. A notable exception was former PM Malcolm Turnbull who has tried to alert people to the danger, but instead has only been asked about the complete irrelevance of his negative comments about Donald Trump and how they might have impacted exemptions from tariffs. Our current PM and Defence Minister can only keep repeating nonsense that the US alliance is safe because there was bipartisan support in Congress for AUKUS legislation. Well, APDR has read the legislation and all that it does is set up the bank account for Australian cash to be deposited - for the US Secretary of Defence to spend on whatever he damn well pleases. When it comes to making ourselves less dependent on the US, we should immediately take up an offer from South Korea to jointly develop a next generation Army C2 system. Why aren't Defence officials on their way to Seoul right now? Finally, it looks like the Collins Life of Type Extension (LOTE) program is another disaster - and the consequence is that in the 2030s Australia will have no submarines at all.

Due to the complete betrayal of Ukraine by the US, the security situation for the western world – including Australia – is worsening.  However, you wouldn’t know that here with complete political and media indifference with people preferring to focus on the weather situation in Queensland.  This is appalling parochialism and is ignoring the reality that the cherished “special relationship” with Washington is over. It’s finished. The US is no longer a reliable ally because the President is acting as if he is a Russian asset.  What we are witnessing is a modern-day version of the infamous Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact of 1939, which divided Eastern Europe up between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union – except this time it’s Russia and the US deciding the future of Ukraine and other countries.  It’s disgusting – and now Canada is also receiving treatment from the US that their Prime Minister believes is part of an attempt to turn it into the 51st US state.  This isn’t a joke, and Australians need to wake up.  Our government needs to overcome its terror of upsetting the US and show some backbone on behalf of our friends and allies. We have leverage and should not be afraid to use it.

If any further proof of the unreliability of the US was needed, it was amply demonstrated last Friday when US President Donald Trump tried to publicly humiliate his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymir Zelenskyy at a White House meeting. It was an appalling performance by the US President – and Australia has to get the message that potentially we are on our own. But have we heard that from the government? Of course not. They are still too frightened of offending Trump that all they can talk about is continuing the support for Ukraine. Since that has come up, let’s look at the facts, which show that despite having the world’s 10th or 11th largest economy we are a pathetic 33 on the list of international donors. So how about the Prime Minister stop beating his chest and actually increase the level of support to something more meaningful. If people are agitated about Chinese warships conducting live fire drills in this area just imagine when the Russian Pacific Fleet starts doing the same thing, with the USN nowhere in sight.

What a week! Two major events have overturned Australia’s security outlook dramatically for the worse. The first is the US throwing Ukraine under the bus and siding with Russia. What has been done to Ukraine is an absolute disgrace and it can be done to Australia – and don’t think for a moment it couldn’t happen. The attempt to extort 50% of Ukraine’s rare earth minerals for equipment already supplied is outrageous. But our political leaders are completely mute about US conduct, so terrified of uttering a single word that might upset the Trump administration. It is moral cowardice at its worst. We are on our own – and the UK has pulled the plug on AUKUS. To add to that we have had Chinese warships operating in the Tasman Sea as a blatant show of force. It was inevitable that this would happen at some point. Australian Defence planners need to stop obsessing with the South China Sea and worry about places much closer to home.

The instability and unpredictability of the Trump administration continues – and that should have alarm bells ringing for Australian Defence planners. The US is no longer a reliable ally as is being demonstrated by threats to take Greenland from NATO member Denmark and the unnecessary imposition of tariffs on friendly nations such as Australia. It looks like Ukraine will be thrown under a bus, which should alarm all Australians in case China’s President Xi thinks he can get away with invading Taiwan. A bit more about the completely corrosive nature of Defence secrecy and the alarming evidence that the Chief of Army can be overruled by a 20-something staffer in a Ministerial office. Finally, some thoughts on technologies – and we should be investing heavily in home-grown drones. We don’t need to import a single one – there’s plenty of talent here.

We start with some thoughts about the big international story of the moment, the idea from US President Donald Trump that all Palestinians be removed from Gaza so that it can be redeveloped as a luxury waterfront enclave. This does not seem a particularly good idea as President Trump has not yet explained where the 2 million Palestinians will go, or who will pay for the redevelopment. All that the mealy-mouthed Australian government will say is that it remains in favour of a Two State solution, a line echoed by the Opposition. This seems to overlook the fact that one of those states – Israel – is no longer interested in that approach and as well as having Palestinians kicked out of Gaza would like them kicked out of the West Bank as well. Australia has just handed over $800 million as a gift to very profitable US submarine manufacturers with another $4.2 billion to follow – and the media thinks it’s a wonderful idea. Some more words about the visit to HQ Joint Operations Command and the very valuable work being done there coordinating ADF operations both in Australia and internationally. Finally, the SEA 3000 secrecy stupidity shows no signs of abating.

We discuss several recent momentous events, including the inauguration of President Donald Trump. This has been followed immediately by various disruptions, such as the US slapping 25% tariffs on allies Canada and Mexico, with only 10% levied on the enemy China, which seems an odd way of going about things. Trump has also threatened to acquire Greenland and the Panama Canal and turn Canada into the 51st state. These challenges to the international order have received widespread condemnation – but not from Australia because our politicians are too scared to say anything that might upset the Americans. And the government wonders why its popularity is sinking. The secrecy around SEA 3000 continues, with a team of probity staff scrutinising the media like Victorian era sensors trying to find references to breasts and buttocks – and this ridiculous exercise by Defence is costing we taxpayers millions of dollars per year in stupidity. Finally good news – a media visit to HQ Joint Operations Command, with more about this in the next podcast.

In this episode we have a look at some more details of the upgraded Mogami frigate and shed more light on how screwed up the process is for SEA 3000. It is shrouded in secrecy because Defence and the government don’t want you to know how little analysis has been done for a strategically vital multi billion dollar procurement. Why does the first ship have to be in the water in 2029? Why not 2028 – or 2030? Then Defence and the highly paid surface fleet review team don’t understand that the only ship Japan can sell to Australia is the upgraded Mogami FFM – not the one currently in service – because you can’t offer something no longer in production. If Japan can offer a variant of the Mogami, can Germany offer a larger variant of the MEKO 200 called the A210? If they can’t then prime contractor tkMS should quit the competition now and save themselves millions of Euro. We look at President-elect Donald Trump’s territorial ambitions and pose the question: if he asks for Australian military assistance for the invasions of Greenland, Canada and Panama will we give it? Presumably the answer from the Defence establishment will be in the affirmative, so completely dazzled as they are by AUKUS.