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Hold Your Fire!
“Axis of Resistance” versus U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Senior Iraq Analyst, Lahib Higel, to discuss the latest escalation between Iran-backed armed groups in Iraq and Syria and U.S. forces stationed in the region. They talk about the 29 January drone strike that killed three U.S. soldiers in a military base in Jordan and the U.S. retaliation against Iran-backed groups in Iraq, including a strike in Baghdad on 7 February that killed a senior commander from Kata’ib Hizbollah, which orchestrated the Jordan attack. They unpack the history of Kata’ib Hizbollah and other members of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, their relations with other Iraqi Shia paramilitaries, including those in the Hashd al Shaabi, or popular mobilisation forces, and Islamic Resistance strikes on U.S. forces since Hamas’s 7 October attack on Israel and Israel’s subsequent assault on Gaza. They talk about how much control Tehran has over the Iraqi groups. They also discuss what the escalation means for the role and presence of U.S. forces in Iraq.
For more on the topics discussed in this episode, visit our Iraq country page.
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5. The “Generals’ Plan”, Sinwar’s Death and a Year in Gaza
46:05||Season 5, Ep. 5In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Tahani Mustafa and Rob Blecher to discuss Israel’s intensified military operations in northern Gaza, the implications of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar’s death and what is left of Gaza a year into the war Israel launched in response to Hamas’ 7 October attacks. They talk about the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, particularly in the besieged north, where access to aid remains restricted. They discuss the “generals’ plan”, a blueprint by former Israeli military officials that entails denying areas of Gaza aid so as to flush out militants, which Israel denies it is implementing. They examine what Sinwar’s death might mean for Hamas and who might replace him as leader. With prospects for a ceasefire bleak, they also reflect on the devastating toll and trauma the past year has wrought on Gaza and Palestinian society.Click here to listen on Apple Podcast or Spotify. For more on the topics discussed in this episode, be sure to read our recent statement In Gaza, the Time of Greatest Peril and our Israel/Palestine country page.4. Can Either Trump or NATO Membership Help End the Ukraine War?
39:17||Season 5, Ep. 4In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Europe & Central Asia director Olga Oliker and senior Ukraine analyst Lucian Kim to discuss the latest developments in the Ukraine war. They talk about President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s recent visit to the U.S., what we know about his proposed “victory plan” and his efforts to ensure support from both sides of the aisle in Washington. They unpack the latest battlefield dynamics, including Ukraine’s Kursk offensive, Russia’s slow but steady gains in eastern Ukraine and the challenges both sides face in maintaining the war effort. They examine how the approaching winter and Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. They also discuss former U.S. president and Republican candidate Donald Trump’s claims that he can quickly end the war by striking a deal with Russian president Vladimir Putin and the idea gaining currency in Western capitals of making firmer commitments to Ukraine about its NATO membership. Click here to listen on Apple Podcast or Spotify. For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check our Ukraine country page and our visual explainer Ukraine War Map: Tracking the Frontlines.3. “Restoring Deterrence”: Dangerous Words in the Middle East
51:29||Season 5, Ep. 3This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard speaks to Crisis Group colleagues Christina Boutros, David Wood, Ali Vaez and Mairav Zonszein about Israel’s military campaign in Lebanon, Iran’s ballistic missile attack on Israel, how Israel might respond and whether the Biden administration can avert an all-out confrontation that would draw the U.S. in. Richard first discusses with David and Christina Israel’s bombardment and ground invasion of Lebanon, its humanitarian toll, whether Hezbollah will fight back and what Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s death could mean for the country’s politics and sectarian relations. Richard then talks with Ali about Iran’s motives for launching its ballistic missile attack on 1 October against Israel and how it might react to an Israeli strike. Finally, he talks to Mairav about how Israelis view the attack and the opportunities and risks that lie in pressing what appears to be Israel’s military advantage in Lebanon and against Iran directly.For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our latest alert The U.S. Should Prevent All-out Israeli-Hizbollah War, our alert Staying the Guns of August: Avoiding All-out Regional War in the Middle East and our Middle East & North Africa page.2. Will Israel’s Bombing Start an All-out War or Force Hizbollah Back from the Border?
40:11||Season 5, Ep. 2In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Mairav Zonszein, Heiko Wimmen and Michael Hanna about the intensified Israeli strikes on Hizbollah militants in Lebanon and whether both sides can still step back from the brink of all-out war. They unpack calculations on both sides, why Israel has ramped up attacks recently and why Hizbollah hasn’t yet responded more forcefully. They discuss what an escalation into a full-scale war would mean for both countries and the region. They also assess Washington’s role as the U.S. heads toward presidential elections, its failed efforts to reach a ceasefire in Gaza and whether it can prevent a wider escalation absent one. For more on the topics discussed in this episode read our recent conflict alert The U.S. Should Prevent All-out Israeli-Hizbollah War, and our Middle East & North Africa region page.1. The United Nations in a Divided World
45:08||Season 5, Ep. 1In the first episode of Hold Your Fire’s new season, Richard Atwood is joined by Richard Gowan, Crisis Group’s UN director, to speak about the UN General Assembly high-level week and the UN’s global role. They look at how the UN has responded to the Gaza war and conflict’s impact on politics and debates at the UN. They talk about the UN’s efforts in other conflicts, including Ukraine, Sudan and Haiti, and challenges UN peacekeepers and envoys face elsewhere. They also discuss efforts to reform UN institutions and strengthen multilateral diplomacy and the potential implications of the U.S. elections, particularly if former President Donald Trump prevails, for the world body. For more on the topics discussed in this episode check out our briefing Ten Challenges for the UN in 2024-2025, and our Updates from the UN General Assembly 2024.34. What Hope for a Gaza Ceasefire and What Happens Without One?
42:19||Season 4, Ep. 34In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Israel expert Mairav Zonszein, Israel-Palestine director Rami Dajani and U.S. program director Michael Hanna to talk about the latest from Gaza, prospects for a ceasefire and the risks of all-out war between Israel and Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. They discuss how the violence in Gaza has evolved and the recent Israeli strike aimed at killing a top Hamas commander that, according to the local authorities, killed scores of civilians in a designated safe zone. They talk about ceasefire negotiations, whether the two sides have softened their positions on the main stumbling blocks – Hamas’s rejecton of a short-term ceasefire entailing the release of Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners without guarantees that such a truce would lead to a permanent end to hostilities; and Israel’s refusal to agree to end the war without further degrading Hamas – and what governance in Gaza looks like absent a deal. They also cover the risk of a full-scale war between Israel and Hizbollah.For more, check out our statement A Gaza Ceasefire and our Israel/Palestine country page.33. Pakistan’s Political Standoff and Surging Militant Violence
46:02||Season 4, Ep. 33In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s South Asia project director Samina Ahmed to talk about the fallout from the February elections in Pakistan, the deteriorating security in Pakistan’s border regions and Islamabad's relations with Pakistan’s neighbours. They unpack what’s behind the enduring popularity of former Prime Minister Imran Khan and his party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, and their standoff with the country’s political and military establishment. They discuss Khan’s efforts to repair his relations with the military, the legal cases levelled against him and the near-term chances of his release from jail. They also talk about the uptick in militant attacks in Pakistan’s border regions, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, claimed in part by the Pakistani Taliban, links between that group and the Afghan Taliban, and the strained relations between Islamabad and the authorities in Kabul. Lastly, they touch upon Pakistan’s evolving relations with India. For more, check out our Pakistan country page.32. Finland’s President Alexander Stubb on NATO, Europe’s Security and its Relations with the Rest of the World
47:05||Season 4, Ep. 32In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Finnish President and former Crisis Group trustee Alexander Stubb to talk about next week’s NATO summit, European security and the war in Ukraine. They assess Finland’s role as one of NATO’s newest members, Europe’s defence spending and preparedness and the future of the alliance as Washington’s attention shifts to the Asia Pacific. They talk about the war in Ukraine and what hope there is for a negotiated settlement. They discuss how Western capitals can counter perceptions of their double standards in much of the rest of the world and the challenges facing peacemaking and diplomacy in an era of big power competition and a more multipolar world order.For more, check out our recent podcast episodes Ukraine and European Security and U.S. Elections and the Future of Transatlantic Relations.31. Houthi Strikes, Red Sea Shipping and Yemen’s War
47:40||Season 4, Ep. 31In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s senior Yemen analyst Ahmed Nagi to talk about the uptick in attacks by Houthi rebels on cargo ships in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean and the prospects for an escalation of the conflict both in Yemen and the broader region. They unpack what the Houthis are trying to achieve with the attacks, which the group has linked to the war in Gaza, and their relations with Iran and other members of the “axis of resistance”. They assess how effective the U.S. and UK-led military response has been in deterring Houthi strikes. They also discuss how the attacks on Red Sea shipping have affected the talks with Saudi Arabia that were underway in Yemen before 7 October, and whether the latest escalation could reignite the war in Yemen after a period of relative calm. They also reflect on how the Houthis might respond to an all-out war between Israel and the Lebanese group Hezbollah. For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Q&A What Next After U.S. and UK Strikes on the Houthis? and our commentary The Gaza War Reverberates Across the Middle East.