The State of It

Andy Burnham could be prime minister within weeks after Keir Starmer's resignation. He may now need to build a government before the World Cup final. This is where the real trade-offs start. How long can Andy Burnham's hopey, changey, Northern Soul vibes last in Downing Street? There's already an almighty row going on over who will be his chancellor.Also today, where did all go wrong for Keir Starmer and what did Labour MPs think of his resignation speech?Wes Streeting has said he will not contest Andy Burnham for the Labour leadership, but are there any other possible candidates for the leadership contest?Steven Swinford, political editor, The TimesPatrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The TimesExecutive producer: Molly GuinnessProducers: Harry Kitson, Euan DawtreyPicture credit: Getty ImagesAudio: Reuters00:00 — Starmer’s Resignation: The Total Lack of Contrition00:48 — A Surreal Timeline: Six Prime Ministers in a Decade01:56 — The Emotional Exit vs. The Bitter Backroom Reality03:04 — Where It Went Wrong: Sins of Tone & Policy U-Turns04:30 — The Brutal Verdict: "He Wasn't Up To It"05:47 — Outsourcing Power: Sue Gray, McSweeney, and Rachel Reeves08:46 — Enter Andy Burnham: Can He Rebrand the Labour Party?11:36 — Ed Miliband vs. The Financial Markets14:31 — Team Burnham's Impossible Economic Trade-offs16:36 — Will the Gloss Wear Off? The Unforgiving Spotlight of No. 1018:24 — Legitimacy Crisis: Nigel Farage Demands an Early Election20:06 — The Whitehall Machine in Total Chaos

Andy Burnham's victory in Makerfield makes him Labour leader and prime minister in waiting. How will the next days and weeks play out?Keir Starmer has said he will stand in a leadership contest if one is triggered. So does that mean a bloody contest rather than a coronation?In a special episode recorded live on Times Radio with Ed Vaizey, we go through the possible scenarios.And if Andy Burnham does become prime minister, what will he do with power? Who will be in his cabinet? We're told that Shabana Mahmood has turned down the offer of chancellor and will stay as home secretary. Is Ed Miliband still a likely candidate for chancellor? And what to do about Wes Streeting?We also look at the Conservative win in Aberdeen South. Is this a green shoot for the Conservative Party?And will the Makerfield result prompt some soul searching in Reform UK?Ed Vaizey, presenter, Times RadioSteven Swinford, political editor, The TimesLara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday TimesProducers: Harry Kitson, Erin CarneyExecutive producer: Molly GuinnessPicture: Getty Images00:00 - Intro: "They’re Going to Have to Drag Him Out"00:20 - Welcome to The State of It: The Makerfield Shockwave00:56 - An Extraordinary Result: How Andy Burnham Defied Political Gravity03:00 - "Vote Burnham, Get Starmer Out" Campaign Strategy04:05 - Keir Starmer Strikes Back: Leadership Contest or Coronation?06:37 - Starmer's Response: "I'm Not Going to Walk Away"07:14 - Inside Starmer's Bunker: Refusing an Orderly Transition09:16 - The Secret List: 80+ MPs Backing Andy Burnham11:06 - Nigel Farage's Disappointment: Reform UK Share Drops12:00 - Kemi Badenoch's Tories Resurge in Scotland13:04 - Did Reform UK Choose the Wrong Candidate?14:04 - The Identity Schism Deepening Inside Reform UK16:00 - What Does an Andy Burnham Premiership Actually Stand For?17:48 - Tax Overhauls: Radical Land Tax vs. Council Tax18:38 - The NATO Summit and the Defense Investment Plan Dilemma21:00 - Tough Decisions on Welfare Cuts and Benefits23:16 - The Power Brokers: Louise Haig & Anneliese Midgley24:40 - Cabinet Secrets: Ed Miliband vs. Shabana Mahmood27:12 - Shabana Mahmood’s Hardline Immigration Reforms28:22 - Wes Streeting's Defiance: Forcing a Platform Battle?32:38 - What Happens to the Hardcore Starmer Loyalists?

Makerfield is the most consequential by-election in history. Andy Burnham is confident he'll win. What happens then? When and how does he make a move? What can Keir Starmer do to thwart him? We have several scoops for you today.Listen to find out which cabinet ministers are thinking of resigning after Makerfield and which senior figure has been ghosting the PM.If Andy Burnham does get to Number 10, the whole direction of his premiership will depend on who he picks for his cabinet. We bring you the latest on what his team is thinking.And of course it's also possible that Reform UK could beat Labour in Makerfield — what then?Steven Swinford, political editor, The TimesPatrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The TimesLara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday TimesExecutive producer: Molly GuinnessVideo editor: George ClarePicture credit: Getty ImagesAudio: Times Radio

Exclusive stories from the front line of the government's war over defence spending.And there's a swagger about Andy Burnham's team: they're more and more confident that he'll win in Makerfield. What happens next? And how will the enmity between Andy Burnham and Keir Starmer influence the outcome?Steven Swinford, political editor, The TimesLara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday TimesProducers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry KitsonExecutive producer: Molly GuinnessPicture: Getty ImagesEmail us: thestateofit@thetimes.co.uk

Nigel Farage has said that the death of Henry Nowak is proof that "we’re living in a two-tier culture...where the rights and privileges of white people matter less than those of ethnic minorities". Police bodycam footage shows Nowak, 18, being arrested for alleged racial abuse minutes before he died from stab wounds in December 2025. It's a tragedy that's very quickly become political. We explain why it's an issue that's particularly tricky for Labour to respond to. Also, a snapshot of strange by-election campaign where cabinet members are not welcome, Labour MPs might be allowed a selfie with Andy Burnham (if they're lucky), and the future of the country is decided upon by a tiny group of people in a club where they hold auctions of exotic birds.And what the Mandelson files tell us about the Labour Party – and about Patrick Maguire Syndrome.Steven Swinford, political editor, The TimesPatrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The TimesLara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday TimesProducers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry KitsonExecutive producer: Molly GuinnessPicture: Henry Nowak with his father, Mark (Family handout/PA)Audio: PA, ITV

In the Makerfield by-election, Reform UK have put forward a local plumber in the hope of derailing Burnham’s push for power — but a string of deeply questionable old social media posts has left the campaign wobbling. Meanwhile, on Reform’s right flank, Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain party is threatening to split the vote after a Sunday Times poll put them on 7% — enough to potentially hand Labour the advantage.Back in Downing Street, Rachel Reeves is machine-gunning her colleagues. The question is whether she genuinely believes she can survive in post under an Andy Burnham leadership.Patrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The TimesLara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday TimesProducers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry KitsonExecutive producer: Molly GuinnessPicture credit: Getty Images

Scoop: Keir Starmer thinks he can remain prime minister till 2027, even if Andy Burnham wins in Makerfield...And if Burnham loses, what then?Fear and loathing in Number 10: we have details about the extraordinary levels of anger at the top of government.Makerfield is the most consequential by-election in history. Can Andy Burnham win in this pro-Brexit, anti-establishment seat? He's pitching himself as the anti-politics candidate, while simultaneously plotting his route to Downing Street.And if he does win, what will he do with power? Could he end up as a Keir Starmer in running shorts?Steven Swinford, political editor, The TimesPatrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The TimesLara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday TimesProducers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry KitsonExecutive producer: Molly GuinnessPicture credit: Getty Images

Wes Streeting has resigned as health secretary, but he hasn't launched a leadership challenge. Why not? More than 90 Labour MPs have now called for the prime minister to go, but Keir Starmer is hanging on. What can he do now? And what's the next move for Angela Rayner, Andy Burnham and Ed Miliband?Steven Swinford, political editor, The TimesLara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday TimesProducers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry KitsonExecutive producer: Molly GuinnessPicture credit: Getty Images