The State of It

Nigel Farage could face an investigation by the parliamentary watchdog after a Sunday Times investigation and podcast series raised questions about gifts and benefits in kind that he has received from George Cottrell, a crypto-gambler and convicted fraudster, who's better known as Posh George. Gabriel and Steve discuss how Reform UK has reacted to the story and what could happen next.Both George Cottrell and Nigel Farage deny any wrongdoing. Listen to the series here: podfollow.com/posh-george Episode 3 is out on Thursday 9th JulySteven Swinford, political editor, The TimesGabriel Pogrund, Insight editor, The Sunday TimesProducers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry KitsonExecutive producer: Molly GuinnessImage: Getty/Alamy

Andy Burnham is keeping his cards close to his chest and no one seems to know who'll get what job. That means there's a huge amount of paranoia and jostling for position the Labour Party. Cabinet ministers and MPs are lavishing praise upon him, but they're worried about his plans - both on policy and personnel. There's a lot of ill-feeling that could bubble up to the surface surprisingly quickly.Steven Swinford, political editor, The TimesPatrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The TimesProducers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry KitsonExecutive producer: Molly GuinnessPicture: Getty Images00:00 - Burnham's Intense One-on-One MP Meetings00:32 - Paranoia and Panic in the Cabinet01:44 - Will Burnham Appeal to Southern Voters?02:50 - Desperate Ministers Begging to Keep Their Jobs03:40 - The Ghost of 2007: Burnham's "Woman Problem"06:13 - Ed Miliband's Chancellor Dilemma07:18 - How Departments Are Pandering to Burnham08:29 - Is David Miliband Making a Comeback?10:54 - The Real Reason Angela Rayner Has Been Weakened13:10 - Burnham's Frustration with Westminster "Ambulance Chasers"16:56 - A Long Goodbye: Starmer's Farewell Barbecues17:30 - The £15 Billion Defence Plan Black Hole18:20 - Government Paralysis and the Rochdale Case

There is considerable intrigue around Andy Burnham's possible cabinet, not least because the eldest Miliband brother is being linked to the position of Foreign Secretary. Are we about to see UK politic's Cain and Able story return for a second round? And most importantly, Is Andy Burnham ready?Burnham's debut speech caused headlines with his bold plans to reshape the British state. But there are difficult questions lurking behind the rhetoric, namely what does any of it actually mean? Plus, Reform UK gears up to choose their top candidates to challenge Burnham in his own backyard.Steven Swinford, political editor, The TimesLara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday TimesPatrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The TimesProducers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry KitsonExecutive producer: Molly GuinnessPicture: Getty ImagesAudio: ReutersEmail us: thestateofit@thetimes.co.uk00:00 The Return of David Miliband?02:53 The Miliband Brothers Psychodrama04:23 Labour's "Boys Club" Optics Problem08:02 The Brutal Fight for Top Cabinet Jobs11:20 How Burnham is Manipulating Westminster13:56 Burnham vs Starmer: The Real Difference16:27 The Hidden Cost of Devolution (Tax Rises?)19:31 What is "Number 10 North" Really About?22:31 Why the Tories Fear Ed Miliband as Chancellor25:29 Nigel Farage's Secret Plot for the North27:35 The £5 Million Farage Crypto Investigation

Andy Burnham and Keir Starmer both want an orderly transition but one day in, it's looking anything but orderly.It's a transition beset with bad blood and uncertainty and also some serious technical hurdles. Is he building a plane mid-flight or is he more like Gromit, sitting on a speeding train, laying down the track in front of him?The biggest unanswered question facing Andy Burnham is who will be his chancellor. Three names are in contention: bookmakers' favourite Wes Streeting, rank outsider Shabana Mahmood, and Ed Miliband — the bête noire of the bond markets.Patrick reports from parliament's bars, where the champagne is flowing and Labour MPs have suddenly become shameless attention-seekers, hoping to seduce Andy Burnham's allies.Steven Swinford, political editor, The TimesLara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday TimesPatrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The TimesProducers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry KitsonExecutive producer: Molly GuinnessPicture: Getty ImagesAudio: ReutersEmail us: thestateofit@thetimes.co.uk0:00 - Can Andy Burnham Build the Plane Mid-Flight?1:15 - Drama on the Commons Terrace: Euphoria & Champagne4:20 - Keir Starmer's "Revenge" Timetable6:30 - The Next Chancellor: Miliband vs. Streeting vs. Mahmood13:12 - Scrapping the Triple Lock & Upcoming Wealth Taxes17:37 - Inside Number 10: Starmer's Farewell Speech19:33 - The £10bn Defence Plan Rupturing Labour21:55 - Civil Service Gridlock: Why Access Talks Are Delayed25:20 - The Crypto Billionaire Bankrolling Nigel Farage & Reform UK29:00 - Will There Be an Emergency Election?

Andy Burnham could be prime minister within weeks after Keir Starmer's resignation. He may now need to build a government before the World Cup final. This is where the real trade-offs start. How long can Andy Burnham's hopey, changey, Northern Soul vibes last in Downing Street? There's already an almighty row going on over who will be his chancellor.Also today, where did all go wrong for Keir Starmer and what did Labour MPs think of his resignation speech?Wes Streeting has said he will not contest Andy Burnham for the Labour leadership, but are there any other possible candidates for the leadership contest?Steven Swinford, political editor, The TimesPatrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The TimesExecutive producer: Molly GuinnessProducers: Harry Kitson, Euan DawtreyPicture credit: Getty ImagesAudio: Reuters00:00 — Starmer’s Resignation: The Total Lack of Contrition00:48 — A Surreal Timeline: Six Prime Ministers in a Decade01:56 — The Emotional Exit vs. The Bitter Backroom Reality03:04 — Where It Went Wrong: Sins of Tone & Policy U-Turns04:30 — The Brutal Verdict: "He Wasn't Up To It"05:47 — Outsourcing Power: Sue Gray, McSweeney, and Rachel Reeves08:46 — Enter Andy Burnham: Can He Rebrand the Labour Party?11:36 — Ed Miliband vs. The Financial Markets14:31 — Team Burnham's Impossible Economic Trade-offs16:36 — Will the Gloss Wear Off? The Unforgiving Spotlight of No. 1018:24 — Legitimacy Crisis: Nigel Farage Demands an Early Election20:06 — The Whitehall Machine in Total Chaos

Andy Burnham's victory in Makerfield makes him Labour leader and prime minister in waiting. How will the next days and weeks play out?Keir Starmer has said he will stand in a leadership contest if one is triggered. So does that mean a bloody contest rather than a coronation?In a special episode recorded live on Times Radio with Ed Vaizey, we go through the possible scenarios.And if Andy Burnham does become prime minister, what will he do with power? Who will be in his cabinet? We're told that Shabana Mahmood has turned down the offer of chancellor and will stay as home secretary. Is Ed Miliband still a likely candidate for chancellor? And what to do about Wes Streeting?We also look at the Conservative win in Aberdeen South. Is this a green shoot for the Conservative Party?And will the Makerfield result prompt some soul searching in Reform UK?Ed Vaizey, presenter, Times RadioSteven Swinford, political editor, The TimesLara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday TimesProducers: Harry Kitson, Erin CarneyExecutive producer: Molly GuinnessPicture: Getty Images00:00 - Intro: "They’re Going to Have to Drag Him Out"00:20 - Welcome to The State of It: The Makerfield Shockwave00:56 - An Extraordinary Result: How Andy Burnham Defied Political Gravity03:00 - "Vote Burnham, Get Starmer Out" Campaign Strategy04:05 - Keir Starmer Strikes Back: Leadership Contest or Coronation?06:37 - Starmer's Response: "I'm Not Going to Walk Away"07:14 - Inside Starmer's Bunker: Refusing an Orderly Transition09:16 - The Secret List: 80+ MPs Backing Andy Burnham11:06 - Nigel Farage's Disappointment: Reform UK Share Drops12:00 - Kemi Badenoch's Tories Resurge in Scotland13:04 - Did Reform UK Choose the Wrong Candidate?14:04 - The Identity Schism Deepening Inside Reform UK16:00 - What Does an Andy Burnham Premiership Actually Stand For?17:48 - Tax Overhauls: Radical Land Tax vs. Council Tax18:38 - The NATO Summit and the Defense Investment Plan Dilemma21:00 - Tough Decisions on Welfare Cuts and Benefits23:16 - The Power Brokers: Louise Haig & Anneliese Midgley24:40 - Cabinet Secrets: Ed Miliband vs. Shabana Mahmood27:12 - Shabana Mahmood’s Hardline Immigration Reforms28:22 - Wes Streeting's Defiance: Forcing a Platform Battle?32:38 - What Happens to the Hardcore Starmer Loyalists?

Makerfield is the most consequential by-election in history. Andy Burnham is confident he'll win. What happens then? When and how does he make a move? What can Keir Starmer do to thwart him? We have several scoops for you today.Listen to find out which cabinet ministers are thinking of resigning after Makerfield and which senior figure has been ghosting the PM.If Andy Burnham does get to Number 10, the whole direction of his premiership will depend on who he picks for his cabinet. We bring you the latest on what his team is thinking.And of course it's also possible that Reform UK could beat Labour in Makerfield — what then?Steven Swinford, political editor, The TimesPatrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The TimesLara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday TimesExecutive producer: Molly GuinnessVideo editor: George ClarePicture credit: Getty ImagesAudio: Times Radio

Exclusive stories from the front line of the government's war over defence spending.And there's a swagger about Andy Burnham's team: they're more and more confident that he'll win in Makerfield. What happens next? And how will the enmity between Andy Burnham and Keir Starmer influence the outcome?Steven Swinford, political editor, The TimesLara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday TimesProducers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry KitsonExecutive producer: Molly GuinnessPicture: Getty ImagesEmail us: thestateofit@thetimes.co.uk