The Underdog NFL Show

Chris Horwedel closes out the NFC preview series on The Underdog NFL Show with a full breakdown of the NFC West heading into the 2026-27 NFL season. In this episode, Chris goes team by team through the Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers, and Seattle Seahawks, looking at each team’s offseason moves, free-agent signings, trades, NFL Draft picks, roster strengths, statistical profile, and projected division finish.The show starts with the Arizona Cardinals, who enter a full reset after moving on from Kyler Murray, hiring Mike LaFleur, and drafting Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love with the third overall pick. Chris looks at whether Arizona can build a real offensive identity around Love, Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr., Gardner Minshew, Jacoby Brissett, and rookie quarterback Carson Beck.From there, the focus shifts to the Los Angeles Rams, the NFC West favorites and one of the top Super Bowl contenders. Chris breaks down the Rams’ aggressive offseason, including the blockbuster addition of Myles Garrett, the trade for Trent McDuffie, and the selection of Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson as a possible long-term successor to Matthew Stafford. With Stafford coming off an MVP season and the Rams adding elite defensive talent, Chris explains why Los Angeles may have the highest ceiling in the NFC.The San Francisco 49ers are next, and Chris discusses how strange it is that a 12-win team could still feel like a third-place projection in this division. He looks at the additions of Mike Evans, Christian Kirk, Osa Odighizuwa, Dre Greenlaw’s return, and a draft class focused on receiver, pass rush, running back, offensive line, and defensive depth.Finally, Chris turns to the Seattle Seahawks, who won the NFC West at 14-3 but still enter the season behind the Rams on the odds board. He examines Seattle’s elite defense, physical running game, Jaxon Smith-Njigba extension, continuity-based offseason, and draft-day addition of Notre Dame running back Jadarian Price.Chris wraps the show by comparing the NFC West odds, Super Bowl odds, NFC Championship odds, number-one seed market, and exact division order prices from Lucky Rebel, ultimately landing on Rams first, Seahawks second, 49ers third, and Cardinals fourth.

On this special edition of **The Underdog NFL Show**, Chris Horwedel continues his 2026 NFL division preview series with a full breakdown of the NFC South. After previously covering the NFC East and NFC North, Chris turns to one of football’s most unpredictable divisions, where the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, and Atlanta Falcons all enter the season with real questions and possible paths to the top.The episode looks at every NFC South team’s offseason moves, free-agent additions, trades, draft class, roster strengths, quarterback situation, division odds, Super Bowl odds, NFC Championship odds, finishing-position markets, and exact-order betting options from oddsmakers.Chris begins with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who enter as the division favorite despite losing franchise icon Mike Evans to San Francisco. He breaks down Baker Mayfield’s stability, the additions of Kenneth Gainwell and Cade Otton, Tampa Bay’s defensive reinforcements, and a defense-heavy draft led by Miami edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr.Next, the defending division champion Carolina Panthers get the spotlight. Chris discusses Bryce Young’s development, the importance of improved pass protection, major defensive additions Jaelan Phillips and Devin Lloyd, the Panthers’ investment in the offensive line with Monroe Freeling, and why Carolina may be more dangerous than the market suggests.The New Orleans Saints section focuses on Tyler Shough, Chris Olave, Travis Etienne, Jordyn Tyson, Noah Fant, Tyree Wilson, Cam Jordan’s final season, and whether New Orleans added enough offensive firepower to climb back into contention.Finally, Chris examines the Atlanta Falcons, including the unusual Michael Penix Jr. and Tua Tagovailoa quarterback setup, Drake London’s massive extension, Kyle Pitts’ uncertain future, Atlanta’s pass rush, Avieon Terrell, Zachariah Branch, Harold Perkins Jr., and the team’s wide range of possible outcomes.Chris closes with his NFC South prediction: Tampa Bay first, Carolina second, New Orleans third, and Atlanta fourth, while highlighting Tampa-Carolina as his favorite order-based betting angle.

0:12 – Chris Horwedel opens a solo Underdog NFL Show by explaining the division finishing-position series and setting up a full NFC North preview using offseason moves, draft results, division odds, and Super Bowl odds from oddsmakers.1:21 – NFC North market overview covers the Lions, Packers, Bears, and Vikings, with Detroit positioned as the early division favorite and Chicago, Green Bay, and Minnesota each carrying very different expectations entering the 2026 NFL season.2:28 – Chicago Bears offseason recap focuses on Ben Johnson’s offensive line rebuild, including Jedrick Wills, Garrett Bradbury, Braxton Jones, Jordan McFadden, plus defensive additions like Neville Gallimore, Devin Bush, Kobe Bryant, and multiple linebacker depth moves.5:14 – Bears draft breakdown highlights Oregon safety Dylan Thieneman, Iowa center Logan Jones, Stanford tight end Sam Roush, LSU wide receiver Xavier Thomas, Texas defensive back Malik Muhammad, and why Chicago looks improved but still hard to place in a deep NFC North.8:24 – Detroit Lions offseason review covers Teddy Bridgewater, Isaiah Pacheco, Greg Dortch, Tyler Conklin, Cade Mays, Juice Scruggs, DJ Wonnum, Jack Campbell’s major extension, Roger McCreary, Avonte Maddox, and Detroit’s attempt to reload after a slight step back.10:54 – Lions draft analysis centers on Blake Miller as the new offensive tackle addition, Michigan edge Derek Moore as a strong complement to Aidan Hutchinson, plus Jimmy Rolder, Keith Abney, Kendrick Law, Skylar Gill-Howard, and Tyree West.11:59 – Detroit’s division finishing odds are reviewed, with Chris explaining why the Lions look like the safest NFC North team and why their roster still profiles as a serious NFC contender.12:41 – Green Bay Packers offseason discussion includes Tyrod Taylor, Skyy Moore, Sean Rhyan’s extension, Javon Hargrave, Zaire Franklin, Benjamin St-Juste, and a quieter approach compared with other NFC North teams.14:00 – Packers draft recap features South Carolina cornerback Brandon Cisse, Missouri defensive tackle Chris McLennan, Penn State edge Dani Dennis-Sutton, Kentucky center Jager Burton, Alabama corner Damani Jackson, and Florida kicker Trace Mack.15:10 – Minnesota Vikings offseason outlook starts with Kyler Murray arriving on a one-year deal, Carson Wentz returning, Aaron Jones restructuring, Jauan Jennings joining the receiver room, and key depth moves at linebacker, cornerback, punter, and long snapper.17:39 – Vikings draft breakdown covers Florida defensive tackle Caleb Banks as a surprising first-round pick, Cincinnati linebacker Jake Golday, Iowa State defensive tackle Domonique Orange, Northwestern tackle Caleb Tiernan, Miami safety Jacoby Thomas, and later depth additions.19:19 – Full NFC North finishing-position odds are compared, including exact-order markets and how oddsmakers view Lions-Packers, Lions-Bears, and Packers-Bears outcomes in one of the NFL’s most competitive divisions.20:39 – Super Bowl odds close the episode, with Chris comparing the Lions, Packers, Bears, and Vikings nationally before wrapping up the NFC North preview and teasing future division breakdowns.

0:13 – Chris Horwedel opens a special solo edition of The Underdog NFL Show focused entirely on projecting NFC East division finishes, offseason moves, draft classes, and betting odds from oddsmakers heading into the 2026 NFL season.1:26 – Dallas Cowboys offseason breakdown covers Sam Howell, Javonte Williams, George Pickens, Rashan Gary, Jalen Thompson, and Brandon Aubrey extensions, plus why the Cowboys’ roster improvements should concern the rest of the NFC East.5:38 – Cowboys draft analysis highlights Caleb Downs, Malachi Lawrence, Jayshon Barham, Drew Shelton, Devin Moore, LT Overton, and why Dallas may have landed one of the strongest defensive draft hauls in the NFL.7:46 – New York Giants discussion begins with John Harbaugh’s arrival, major culture changes, free-agent additions like Patrick Ricard, Isaiah Likely, DJ Reader, Tremaine Edmunds, Greg Newsome, and why the Giants could become one of the NFL’s biggest surprise teams.11:17 – Giants draft breakdown focuses on Arvell Reese, Francis Mauigoa, Colton Hood, and Malachi Fields, including why Reese may have the highest defensive upside in the entire draft class.13:53 – Philadelphia Eagles offseason recap covers Andy Dalton, Hollywood Brown, Elijah Moore, Dontayvion Wicks, Dallas Goedert’s return, Johnny Mundt, Jonathan Greenard, Tariq Woolen, Jonathan Jones, and roster reshaping after another deep playoff run.17:42 – Eagles draft analysis centers on Makai Lemon as the potential long-term A.J. Brown replacement, Eli Stowers, Markel Bell’s upside, Cole Payton’s developmental value, and the fascinating International Pathway Program pick of Nigerian defensive tackle Uar Bernard.21:25 – Washington Commanders offseason moves include Marcus Mariota, Jerome Ford, Rachaad White, Chig Okonkwo, Laremy Tunsil, Odafe Oweh, Leo Chenal, and a complete rebuild of the offensive line and defense around Jayden Daniels.24:30 – Commanders draft discussion highlights Sonny Styles’ elite athleticism, Antonio Williams, Joshua Josephs, Kaytron Allen, and why Washington may have landed one of the steals of the first round.26:12 – Chris closes the episode by comparing division winner odds, projected finishes, NFC East win totals, and why he believes the Giants are massively undervalued heading into the 2026 season.

First-round NFL Draft overview begins with early chalk picks, team outlooks, and odds movement from oddsmakers for teams like the Raiders, Jets, and Cardinals.Cardinals’ surprising Jeremiah Love selection is analyzed, including roster fit concerns, positional value, and ripple effects across the NFC.Future quarterback class discussion covers the yearly hype cycle around “next year’s class,” with names like Arch Manning, Dante Moore, Julian Sayin, and others.Brandon Sorsby’s gambling situation is discussed through the lens of college eligibility, NFL projection, NIL impact, and quarterback trust.NBA Draft lottery rule changes are briefly examined, including anti-tanking goals and possible unintended consequences.Titans’ Carnell Tate pick is questioned, with criticism of Tennessee’s roster-building approach and offensive planning.Giants’ Arvell Reese selection gets strong praise, with discussion of defensive upside and why New York could outperform expectations.Chiefs trading up for Mansoor Delane is reviewed, including how teams gain value by identifying prospects before their stock peaks.Commanders’ Sonny Styles pick is discussed, along with Washington’s outlook and concerns about quarterback development.Saints, Browns, Dolphins, Giants, and Cowboys picks lead into an offensive line run, plus Caleb Downs’ impact as a major NFC East addition.Rams’ surprising Ty Simpson selection sparks discussion about organizational fit, coaching reactions, and first-round quarterback risk.Ravens’ Vega Ioane pick is praised as a strong fit for Baltimore’s physical offensive identity.Mid-first-round picks including Ruben Bain and the Jets’ additions of David Bailey and Kenyon Sadiq are discussed as long-term roster-building moves.Lions draft conversation covers Blake Miller, offensive line changes, Penei Sewell’s position switch, and Detroit’s shifting offensive philosophy.Vikings’ Caleb Banks pick is viewed as a high-upside but risky defensive selection.Panthers, Eagles, and Steelers picks are reviewed, including Philadelphia trading up for Makai Lemon and how he fits into the Eagles’ wide receiver room.Chargers, Cowboys, Browns, Bears, Texans, Dolphins, and Patriots picks are covered, including value debates, Caleb Lomu trade speculation, and roster needs.Patriots coaching rumors involving Mike Vrabel and Mike Tomlin are discussed and largely dismissed.Late first-round picks include Peter Woods to the Chiefs, Omar Cooper and D’Angelo Pounds to the Jets, Kendrick Faulk to the Titans, and Jadarian Price to the Seahawks.Team-specific draft reviews focus on the Lions and Eagles, including Detroit’s depth additions and Philadelphia’s athletic, trait-based approach.The episode closes with NFL Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year odds from oddsmakers, highlighting key candidates and value picks.

The episode serves as a wide-ranging preview of the 2026 NFL Draft, with Chris and Mario focusing on what could happen as they role through a 2026 first round mock draft.They start by setting the stage for draft week, discussing timing, excitement, and how the event functions as a turning point for franchises. From there, they briefly detour into pop culture—reviewing Project Hail Mary—before pivoting fully into football.A major portion of the show explores how modern drafts are shaped by uncertainty. The hosts emphasize how late rumors, smokescreens, and media narratives can dramatically shift perceptions in the final 24–48 hours. They also highlight how teams balance “safe” prospects versus high-upside swings, especially at the top of the draft where mistakes are costly.Another key theme is roster-building philosophy. The discussion repeatedly returns to how different teams should approach their picks depending on where they are competitively—whether they need stability, star power, or long-term upside. They also touch on positional value trends, including how recent success at certain positions (like versatile offensive weapons or defensive disruptors) is influencing how teams think.They spend time analyzing potential trade scenarios, noting that while many teams want to move up or down, deals only happen when incentives align. The conversation underscores how difficult it is to justify major trade-ups given the cost, particularly for non-quarterback positions.The hosts also discuss the explosion of draft betting markets, pointing out how “oddsmakers” now offer an unprecedented number of props, which both reflects and amplifies uncertainty around the draft.Overall, the episode is less about predicting exact outcomes and more about understanding the decision-making dynamics—how teams evaluate talent, manage risk, and navigate chaos leading into one of the most unpredictable nights on the NFL calendar.

0:13 — Show Introduction & Free Agency OverviewHosts introduce the episode and set the stage for a rapid-fire breakdown of NFL free-agency moves and offseason storylines across the league. 0:50 — Arizona Cardinals MovesDiscussion of Arizona potentially releasing Kyler Murray, new additions like Isaac Seumalo and Gardner Minshew, and speculation about a possible Marvin Harrison Jr. trade while evaluating the team’s outlook and odds from oddsmakers.6:00 — Atlanta Falcons Offseason DecisionsBreakdown of Atlanta’s additions (including Jahan Dotson and specialists), Kyle Pitts on the franchise tag, and debate about the team’s quarterback situation and roster direction.8:46 — Baltimore Ravens Trade DramaHosts examine the Ravens backing out of a Maxx Crosby trade and pivoting to Trey Hendrickson, along with reactions around the league and implications for the team’s championship chances.12:27 — Buffalo Bills Offensive AdditionsDiscussion of the Bills trading for DJ Moore and adding Bradley Chubb, focusing on Moore’s role in the offense and whether the team has truly found a top receiving option for Josh Allen.18:46 — Carolina Panthers Big SpendingAnalysis of Carolina’s large deal for Jalen Phillips, other roster additions, and whether the moves represent meaningful progress or a risky investment in upside. 21:07 — Chicago Bears TransactionsBears signings, the surprise retirement of Drew Dalman, and the team’s offensive line adjustments lead to a discussion about long-term roster planning.25:13 — Cincinnati Bengals Quiet OffseasonThe Bengals’ limited activity, including replacing Trey Hendrickson, and brief off-field chatter surrounding Joe Burrow.25:58 — Cleveland Browns Strategy DebateA series of offensive line additions sparks discussion on whether Cleveland is rebuilding, treading water, or unintentionally tanking.28:53 — Dallas Cowboys Moves & Pickens SituationCowboys acquire Rashan Gary and franchise-tag George Pickens, prompting debate about roster strategy and potential contract drama.32:01 — Denver Broncos Standing PatDenver’s lack of outside signings leads to discussion about relying on internal improvement and the upcoming draft to strengthen the roster. 32:52 — Detroit Lions Roster ChangesTrade of David Montgomery and additions like Cade Mays and Isaiah Pacheco highlight Detroit’s effort to manage salary cap space while maintaining competitiveness.34:21 — Green Bay Packers DirectionThe hosts discuss roster turnover, the addition of Zaire Franklin, and whether Green Bay may be overrated entering next season according to oddsmakers.35:43 — Houston Texans Building Around DefenseTexans add Reed Blankenship and other contributors while focusing on strengthening key areas to support their developing roster.37:30 — Indianapolis Colts Commit to Daniel JonesConversation about the Colts keeping Alec Pierce and committing to Daniel Jones, including differing opinions on the long-term viability of the move.40:17 — Jacksonville Jaguars Minimal ActivityJaguars largely retain internal players, prompting a quick segment on the team’s quiet offseason approach.40:45 — Kansas City Chiefs Add Kenneth WalkerChiefs sign Kenneth Walker and bring back Travis Kelce, sparking discussion about offensive evolution and potential draft strategy.44:45 — Las Vegas Raiders Aggressive AdditionsRaiders add Tyler Linderbaum, Quay Walker, and Nakobe Dean, with the hosts debating how the influx of defensive talent reshapes the roster.

00:13 – Cold Open & Super Bowl DisappointmentChris and Mario admit the game lacked intrigue, comparing it to last year’s lopsided halftime. They discuss the Patriots' offensive struggles and Seattle’s dominant defensive tone.01:07 – Super Bowl: Seahawks vs PatriotsHigh-level breakdown of Seattle’s defensive pressure, Patriots protection issues, Drake May’s uneven performance, Sam Darnold’s steadiness, and key defensive plays that shaped the flow.06:31 – Treveyon Henderson Prop SweatChris recounts betting the rushing over and surviving a late-game yardage swing, highlighting how game script killed run volume.10:34 – Standout PerformancesPraise for Christian Gonzalez, Craig Woodson’s rookie impact, Milton Williams’ interior presence, and debate over Kenneth Walker’s MVP moment negated by penalty.16:10 – Commercials & Halftime ReactionsThey critique AI-heavy ads, the Brad Pitt Netflix trailer buzz, and nostalgic de-aging spots that missed the mark.19:14 – Early Super Bowl Odds & Team OutlooksUsing oddsmakers’ futures board, they debate Seahawks/Rams at the top, skepticism around Bills hype, Patriots’ standing, and surprise bottom-tier teams like the Dolphins and Cardinals.22:59 – Bears vs Jaguars Futures DebateDeep dive into Caleb Williams’ troubling completion numbers, postseason inconsistency, Ben Johnson’s scheme questions, Trevor Lawrence’s trajectory, and Jacksonville’s ceiling.39:59 – Receiver Trade SpeculationHypothetical trade talk: Brian Thomas Jr., Marvin Harrison Jr., and even A.J. Brown scenarios, plus Bills’ need for a true WR1.52:00 – Veteran QB CarouselDiscussion of potential availability: Kyler Murray, Tua, Malik Willis, Kirk Cousins, and deeper backup names. Debate on value vs projection.53:35 – James Pearce Jr. Arrest & FalloutDetailed reaction to domestic dispute allegations, police pursuit, felony charges, and likely career consequences. The conversation turns to accountability, character evaluation, and Falcons implications.59:23 – Offseason PreviewShow closes with plans for free agency, draft coverage, and offseason consistency.

00:13 – Pro Bowl Apathy & Football FatigueChris and Mario open by dismissing the Pro Bowl, joking about highlights, effort levels, and how little interest it generates compared to meaningful football.01:26 – Super Bowl Anticipation CheckThey discuss overall excitement levels for the Super Bowl, lingering Patriots fatigue, and why the matchup still feels compelling despite emotional burnout.02:36 – Marvel & TV DetourExtended pop-culture segment on Wonder Man, Disney+ pacing issues, long gaps between prestige TV seasons, and frustration with modern streaming timelines.09:31 – Belichick, Legacy & Hall of Fame OpticsConversation shifts to Bill Belichick’s post-Patriots career, Hall of Fame delays, college football detours, and how staying too long can complicate legacies.15:00 – Super Bowl Context & Team ProfilesBreakdown of Seahawks vs Patriots from a high-level perspective, focusing on offensive balance, defensive strengths, season-long efficiency, and why the matchup is statistically intriguing.19:32 – Super Bowl MVP LandscapeOverview of MVP trends, quarterback dominance, and why non-QB candidates require unusual game scripts to be considered by voters.23:26 – Running Backs & Usage TrendsDiscussion of rushing workloads, playoff usage patterns, and how backs can swing big games without guaranteeing individual awards.29:26 – Betting Props & Market CuriosityLighthearted look at oddsmakers’ lines, including rushing totals, receiving yard thresholds, and how public perception shapes numbers.39:34 – NBA Trade Deadline ChaosReaction to a wild NBA trade window, including Giannis rumors, front-office leverage, and teams positioning for long-term flexibility.49:20 – Halftime Show & Novelty PropsBreakdown of Super Bowl novelty markets: anthem length, coin tosses, MVP speeches, and Bad Bunny halftime expectations.01:05:14 – Best Super Bowl Halftime Shows EverThey rank recent halftime performances, praising the Dre/Snoop/Kendrick show while critiquing others for lacking energy.01:10:06 – Eagles News & Closing ThoughtsThe episode ends with a reaction to Jeff Stoutland’s departure, music talk, and final Super Bowl anticipation before signing off.