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The Underdog NFL Show
Episode 277: NFL Offseason Spectacular
0:13 — Show Introduction & Free Agency Overview
Hosts introduce the episode and set the stage for a rapid-fire breakdown of NFL free-agency moves and offseason storylines across the league.
0:50 — Arizona Cardinals Moves
Discussion of Arizona potentially releasing Kyler Murray, new additions like Isaac Seumalo and Gardner Minshew, and speculation about a possible Marvin Harrison Jr. trade while evaluating the team’s outlook and odds from oddsmakers.
6:00 — Atlanta Falcons Offseason Decisions
Breakdown of Atlanta’s additions (including Jahan Dotson and specialists), Kyle Pitts on the franchise tag, and debate about the team’s quarterback situation and roster direction.
8:46 — Baltimore Ravens Trade Drama
Hosts examine the Ravens backing out of a Maxx Crosby trade and pivoting to Trey Hendrickson, along with reactions around the league and implications for the team’s championship chances.
12:27 — Buffalo Bills Offensive Additions
Discussion of the Bills trading for DJ Moore and adding Bradley Chubb, focusing on Moore’s role in the offense and whether the team has truly found a top receiving option for Josh Allen.
18:46 — Carolina Panthers Big Spending
Analysis of Carolina’s large deal for Jalen Phillips, other roster additions, and whether the moves represent meaningful progress or a risky investment in upside.
21:07 — Chicago Bears Transactions
Bears signings, the surprise retirement of Drew Dalman, and the team’s offensive line adjustments lead to a discussion about long-term roster planning.
25:13 — Cincinnati Bengals Quiet Offseason
The Bengals’ limited activity, including replacing Trey Hendrickson, and brief off-field chatter surrounding Joe Burrow.
25:58 — Cleveland Browns Strategy Debate
A series of offensive line additions sparks discussion on whether Cleveland is rebuilding, treading water, or unintentionally tanking.
28:53 — Dallas Cowboys Moves & Pickens Situation
Cowboys acquire Rashan Gary and franchise-tag George Pickens, prompting debate about roster strategy and potential contract drama.
32:01 — Denver Broncos Standing Pat
Denver’s lack of outside signings leads to discussion about relying on internal improvement and the upcoming draft to strengthen the roster.
32:52 — Detroit Lions Roster Changes
Trade of David Montgomery and additions like Cade Mays and Isaiah Pacheco highlight Detroit’s effort to manage salary cap space while maintaining competitiveness.
34:21 — Green Bay Packers Direction
The hosts discuss roster turnover, the addition of Zaire Franklin, and whether Green Bay may be overrated entering next season according to oddsmakers.
35:43 — Houston Texans Building Around Defense
Texans add Reed Blankenship and other contributors while focusing on strengthening key areas to support their developing roster.
37:30 — Indianapolis Colts Commit to Daniel Jones
Conversation about the Colts keeping Alec Pierce and committing to Daniel Jones, including differing opinions on the long-term viability of the move.
40:17 — Jacksonville Jaguars Minimal Activity
Jaguars largely retain internal players, prompting a quick segment on the team’s quiet offseason approach.
40:45 — Kansas City Chiefs Add Kenneth Walker
Chiefs sign Kenneth Walker and bring back Travis Kelce, sparking discussion about offensive evolution and potential draft strategy.
44:45 — Las Vegas Raiders Aggressive Additions
Raiders add Tyler Linderbaum, Quay Walker, and Nakobe Dean, with the hosts debating how the influx of defensive talent reshapes the roster.
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290: Week 2 NFL Games
01:03:53|The Underdog NFL Show returns for Week 2 with Chris Horwedel and Mario Hines working through the full NFL slate after a chaotic opening weekend. They revisit the biggest Week 1 takeaways, injuries, quarterback questions and offensive-line concerns while previewing every matchup. The episode closes with a look at several Week 2 specials.0:13 Opening: Week 1 surprises and the challenge of getting through the full NFL slate.2:19 Lions-Bills: Detroit’s secondary, Jahmyr Gibbs’ workload, Jameson Williams and Buffalo’s opener.7:20 Panthers-Falcons: Atlanta’s quarterback issues, Bijan Robinson, Bryce Young and Carolina’s defense.10:27 Bengals-Texans: Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, C.J. Stroud and Houston’s defense.12:26 Browns-Buccaneers: Deshaun Watson, Cleveland’s offensive line, Quinshon Judkins and Baker Mayfield.15:43 Packers-Jets: Green Bay’s Week 1 collapse, New York’s outlook and Tennessee’s long-term QB situation.17:47 Vikings-Bears: Kyler Murray, Carson Wentz, Kevin O’Connell, Justin Jefferson and Chicago’s offense.24:45 Saints-Ravens: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry and New Orleans’ run defense.26:38 Eagles-Titans: Philadelphia’s interior offensive line, Landon Dickerson, Saquon Barkley and Tennessee.31:47 Steelers-Patriots: Drake Maye, New England’s depleted weapons and Pittsburgh’s outlook.35:31 Jaguars-Broncos: Bo Nix, Denver’s offense, Jacksonville’s ceiling and the Drew Brees-Broncos story.42:30 Raiders-Chargers: Justin Herbert, Mike McDaniel, the Chargers’ offense and Fernando Mendoza’s timeline.50:29 Dolphins-49ers: Miami’s roster concerns, San Francisco’s Australia trip and the Rams’ Week 1 context.52:56 Seahawks-Cardinals: Drew Lock, Seattle’s offense and Arizona’s early-season test.54:09 Commanders-Cowboys: Dallas’ Week 1 issues, Washington’s defensive scheme and Jalen Hurts’ middle-field success.56:23 Week 1 stats: passing, rushing, receiving, sacks and tackle leaders.1:00:06 Colts-Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes, Kenneth Walker III, Daniel Jones and Kansas City’s outlook.1:00:40 Giants-Rams: Jackson Dart, New York’s young core and Los Angeles’ reset after Australia.1:01:17 Betting specials: Week 2 boosted parlays and the Giants-Rams prop package
289: Drake Maye - Top 10 Quarterback
01:01:33|The Underdog NFL Show previews the complete NFL Week 1 slate, with Chris Horwedel and Mario Hines breaking down every matchup, roster question, and early-season pressure point. The episode opens with online privacy before moving into Patriots-Seahawks and the NFL’s Australia game. Christian McCaffrey, Aaron Rodgers, C.J. Stroud, and Drake May become major discussion points. The show closes with the remaining Sunday and Monday matchups.0:13 Intro, Mario’s Future Chefs photo, online privacy, data-removal services and spam calls.9:27 Patriots-Seahawks: Super Bowl rematch, New England’s offseason, Seattle’s line and Sam Darnold.15:57 49ers-Rams in Melbourne: travel, Aaron Donald and Christian McCaffrey’s workload and career trends.24:09 Falcons-Steelers: Aaron Rodgers, Pittsburgh’s offense, Atlanta’s secondary and Mike Tomlin.31:34 Ravens-Colts: Daniel Jones’ Achilles return and Baltimore’s new era.32:45 Bills-Texans: C.J. Stroud’s contract expectations, Houston’s offense and Buffalo’s outlook.40:27 Bears-Panthers: Caleb Williams, Drake May comparisons and Carolina.44:52 Drake Maye QB-ranking debate against Hurts, Love, Goff, Burrow, Mahomes, Herbert, Stafford, and others.54:44 Jets-Titans: Geno Smith, Cam Ward and Tennessee.55:45 Browns-Jaguars: Cleveland’s QB situation and Jacksonville’s offense.55:59 Saints-Lions: New Orleans’ roster and Detroit.56:32 Buccaneers-Bengals: Baker Mayfield’s deal, Joe Burrow and Cincinnati.57:26 Cardinals-Chargers: Arizona and Mike McDaniel’s Chargers offense.58:40 Packers-Vikings: Kyler Murray, Kevin O’Connell and Minnesota’s QB situation.1:01:30 Dolphins-Raiders: Malik Willis, Kirk Cousins, Fernando Mendoza and Miami’s rebuild.1:04:04 Eagles-Commanders: Philadelphia’s defense, Washington’s line and Jayden Daniels.1:05:05 Cowboys-Giants: Malik Nabers, New York’s defense and Dallas.1:08:25 Broncos-Chiefs: Denver’s expectations and Kansas City.
288: Divisional Predictions
46:02|The Underdog NFL Show previews every NFL division, Eagles and Lions roster decisions, Hurts-A.J. Brown, the Wednesday opener, Kirk Cousins and the Raiders, Joe Burrow’s future, NFL roster ages, and conference/Super Bowl futures ahead of Week 1.0:13 Intro from Azerbaijan, Qarabağ FK, NFL kickoff week, and oddsmakers’ season markets.3:54 Lions roster cuts, Greg Dortch and Detroit’s preseason outlook.5:20 Eagles cuts: four quarterbacks, International Pathway prospects, Carson Steele and Jalen Hurts-A.J. Brown.9:17 NFL’s rare Wednesday opener and the 2012 Cowboys-Giants precedent.12:44 NFC West: Rams, Seahawks, 49ers and Cardinals outlook.16:00 NFC East: Eagles, Cowboys, Giants and Commanders, including offensive-line and quarterback questions.21:11 NFC South: Buccaneers, Saints, Panthers and Falcons roster outlook.25:37 NFC North: Lions, Bears, Packers and Vikings, plus Micah Parsons and Harrison Smith.33:34 AFC West: Broncos, Chiefs, Chargers and Raiders with Kirk Cousins starting in Las Vegas.35:31 AFC East: Bills, Patriots, Jets and Dolphins, plus Buffalo-New England expectations.41:35 AFC South: Texans, Jaguars, Colts and Titans, plus NFL roster-age comparisons.48:06 AFC North: Ravens, Bengals, Steelers and Browns, Joe Burrow’s future and an Eagles hypothetical.49:57 NFC/AFC championship and Super Bowl futures discussion.51:21 Close and look ahead to Week 1.
287: The Epitome of Competent
56:18|0:13 Intro: Za’Darius Smith’s retirement story and NFL return.5:05 College eligibility: Da’Quan Wright, NFL-to-college returns, conference bans, and draft questions.9:55 NIL economics: college QB salaries vs NFL rookies, Darian Mensah, Dante Moore, Trinidad Chambliss, Arch Manning, Dylan Raiola and Bryce Underwood.17:04 College football futures and Michigan/Michigan State title odds.21:30 NFL ends the Pro Bowl game; what the honor means going forward.24:17 NFL watchability 32–21: Browns, Dolphins, Titans, Cardinals, Falcons, Raiders, Steelers, Jets, Saints, Giants, Chiefs and Panthers.37:20 Rankings 20–15: 49ers, Colts, Packers, Jaguars, Bills and Eagles; Travis Hunter, Jalen Hurts and Philly’s defense.46:38 Eagles outlook: DeVonta Smith receptions and Saquon Barkley rushing totals.48:15 Rankings 14–10: Buccaneers, Commanders, Texans, Ravens and Broncos.54:22 Rankings 9–5: Vikings, Seahawks, Bengals, Cowboys and Patriots.57:53 Rankings 4–1: Chargers, Lions, Rams and No. 1 Chicago Bears.1:01:40 Close and look ahead to the NFL season.
286: Football Season is Here
01:02:55|0:13 Chris Horwedel and Mario Hines return with Ole Miss players seeking another eligibility year after signing NFL deals, plus NIL, transfers, and college-football eligibility rules.11:34 Seattle’s secondary overhaul: Trevon Diggs, Terrion Arnold and Devon Witherspoon.13:45 TV and movie talk: Widow’s Bay, Hard Knocks, Spider-Man, Doomsday and Murder 101.27:33 Detroit Lions outlook, Jaden Higgins’ ACL injury and Houston receiver depth.29:38 Chris discusses Why We Love This Club, Yesterday in Sports and other Underdog shows.33:26 NFC futures: Detroit, the Rams, Aaron Donald, Seattle and Philadelphia.43:14 Pistons roster-building leads into the Knicks, Spurs, Thunder, 76ers, Giannis Antetokounmpo and LeBron James.53:18 NBA cap-circumvention talk centers on Steve Ballmer, Kawhi Leonard and league enforcement.55:50 Eagles outlook: receivers, secondary, Jalen Carter, Moro Ojomo, Nolan Smith and the defensive front.1:00:20 Saquon Barkley’s 2026 outlook and rushing-yard expectations.
285: 2026 AFC North Standings Predictions
18:57|On this episode of The Underdog NFL Show, Chris Horwedel delivers a complete 2026 AFC North preview, breaking down the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns ahead of a season filled with coaching changes, quarterback questions and major roster turnover.Baltimore enters as the division favorite despite replacing John Harbaugh, changing offensive coordinators and losing several important contributors, including Tyler Linderbaum. Chris examines Lamar Jackson’s health, Derrick Henry’s continued dominance, Zay Flowers’ emergence and the Ravens’ attempt to rebuild their pass rush by adding Trey Hendrickson. The draft brought offensive lineman Vega Ioane, edge rusher Zion Young and receivers Ja’Kobi Lane and Elijah “Waffle House” Sarratt.The Bengals remain one of the NFL’s most dangerous teams whenever Joe Burrow is healthy. Chris analyzes Cincinnati’s elite group of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Chase Brown, along with the offensive line’s responsibility to keep Burrow available. After fielding one of football’s worst defenses, the Bengals responded by adding Dexter Lawrence, Jonathan Allen, Boye Mafe, Bryan Cook and Kyle Dugger.Pittsburgh begins a new era after Mike Tomlin’s departure. Mike McCarthy takes over as head coach and reunites with Aaron Rodgers for the quarterback’s final NFL season. The Steelers added Michael Pittman Jr., Rico Dowdle, Jamel Dean, Asante Samuel Jr. and Jaquan Brisker while drafting tackle Max Iheanachor, receiver Germie Bernard and developmental quarterback Drew Allar.Cleveland continues rebuilding around a talented young defense after trading Myles Garrett to the Rams for Jared Verse and multiple premium draft picks. Chris reviews the Browns’ crowded quarterback competition involving Deshaun Watson, Shedeur Sanders, Dillon Gabriel and rookie Taylen Green. Cleveland also rebuilt its offensive line and added first-round receiving help with K.C. Concepcion and Denzel Boston.The episode compares each team’s free-agent additions, departures, draft classes, roster strengths and biggest concerns. Chris also reviews the latest AFC North, conference, Super Bowl and Week 1 markets from oddsmakers before revealing his projected divisional order and the team he believes offers the most interesting value.
284: 2026 AFC East Standings Predictions
24:09|On this episode of The Underdog NFL Show, Chris Horwedel continues the offseason division preview series with a full breakdown of the AFC East. The show covers team-by-team offseason movement, major trades, free-agent additions, key losses, draft picks, division odds, Super Bowl futures, and Chris’ final projected order for the division.The episode opens with the Buffalo Bills, who enter as the AFC East favorites behind Josh Allen. Chris breaks down Buffalo’s trade for DJ Moore, the importance of giving Allen a proven receiver, and the team’s offensive line additions including Austin Corbett, Lloyd Cushenberry, and Connor McGovern. He also looks at the defensive turnover, with major departures including Joey Bosa, A.J. Epenesa, DaQuan Jones, Matt Milano, Taron Johnson, Tre’Davious White, Taylor Rapp, Jordan Poyer, and more. Buffalo’s draft starts with Clemson edge rusher TJ Parker and Ohio State corner Davison Igbinosun, reinforcing a defense that lost a lot of experience. Chris explains why the Bills still have the safest floor in the division, but may be more volatile than the odds suggest.The New England Patriots are next, and Chris makes the case that their offseason may be the strongest in the AFC East. After going 14-3 and reaching the Super Bowl, New England adds A.J. Brown in a blockbuster trade with the Eagles, signs Romeo Doubs, brings in Alijah Vera-Tucker, Reggie Gilliam, Dre’Mont Jones, K.J. Britt, Kindle Vildor, and Kevin Byard, and continues building around Drake Maye. The Patriots’ draft starts with Utah offensive tackle Caleb Lomu, followed by Illinois edge Gabe Jacas and Notre Dame tight end Eli Raridon. Chris questions why the Patriots are not favored to win the division after adding high-end talent to a roster that already won the AFC East.The New York Jets section focuses on a team trying to become functional again after a 3-14 season and a historically low takeaway total. Chris breaks down the trade for Geno Smith, Breece Hall’s extension, the defensive additions of Joseph Ossai, David Onyemata, T’Vondre Sweat, Demario Davis, Andre Cisco, and Minkah Fitzpatrick, plus the losses of Justin Fields, Tyrod Taylor, Alijah Vera-Tucker, Jermaine Johnson, and Quincy Williams. The Jets’ draft includes No. 2 overall pick David Bailey, tight end Kenyon Sadiq, wide receiver Omar Cooper Jr., corner D’Angelo Ponds, and quarterback Cade Klubnik. Chris likes the idea of the Jets improving, but not enough to threaten Buffalo or New England yet.The Miami Dolphins close the team breakdown, and Chris describes their offseason as a full reset. Miami moves on from Tua Tagovailoa, Zach Wilson, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Alec Ingold, Darren Waller, Bradley Chubb, Kader Kohou, Minkah Fitzpatrick, and other key pieces. Malik Willis arrives as the new quarterback on a three-year deal, De’Von Achane gets extended, and Miami adds players like Tutu Atwell, Jalen Reagor, Jalen Tolbert, Greg Dulcich, David Ojabo, Josh Uche, and others. The Dolphins’ 13-player draft class is led by Alabama offensive lineman Kadyn Proctor, San Diego State corner Chris Johnson, Texas Tech linebacker Jacob Rodriguez, and several offensive skill-position swings. Chris sees real long-term value in the draft, but views Miami as a team at the beginning of a rebuild.The episode ends with Chris’ AFC East prediction: New England Patriots first, Buffalo Bills second, New York Jets third, and Miami Dolphins fourth. He explains why picking against Josh Allen feels risky, but ultimately favors New England’s cleaner offseason, stronger roster-building logic, and more complete identity. Using odds from oddsmakers, Chris highlights Patriots to win the division and the exact order of Patriots, Bills, Jets, Dolphins as his favorite AFC East angles.
283: 2026 NFC West Standings Predictions
28:07|Chris Horwedel closes out the NFC preview series on The Underdog NFL Show with a full breakdown of the NFC West heading into the 2026-27 NFL season. In this episode, Chris goes team by team through the Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers, and Seattle Seahawks, looking at each team’s offseason moves, free-agent signings, trades, NFL Draft picks, roster strengths, statistical profile, and projected division finish.The show starts with the Arizona Cardinals, who enter a full reset after moving on from Kyler Murray, hiring Mike LaFleur, and drafting Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love with the third overall pick. Chris looks at whether Arizona can build a real offensive identity around Love, Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr., Gardner Minshew, Jacoby Brissett, and rookie quarterback Carson Beck.From there, the focus shifts to the Los Angeles Rams, the NFC West favorites and one of the top Super Bowl contenders. Chris breaks down the Rams’ aggressive offseason, including the blockbuster addition of Myles Garrett, the trade for Trent McDuffie, and the selection of Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson as a possible long-term successor to Matthew Stafford. With Stafford coming off an MVP season and the Rams adding elite defensive talent, Chris explains why Los Angeles may have the highest ceiling in the NFC.The San Francisco 49ers are next, and Chris discusses how strange it is that a 12-win team could still feel like a third-place projection in this division. He looks at the additions of Mike Evans, Christian Kirk, Osa Odighizuwa, Dre Greenlaw’s return, and a draft class focused on receiver, pass rush, running back, offensive line, and defensive depth.Finally, Chris turns to the Seattle Seahawks, who won the NFC West at 14-3 but still enter the season behind the Rams on the odds board. He examines Seattle’s elite defense, physical running game, Jaxon Smith-Njigba extension, continuity-based offseason, and draft-day addition of Notre Dame running back Jadarian Price.Chris wraps the show by comparing the NFC West odds, Super Bowl odds, NFC Championship odds, number-one seed market, and exact division order prices from Lucky Rebel, ultimately landing on Rams first, Seahawks second, 49ers third, and Cardinals fourth.
282: 2026 NFC South Standings Predictions
32:57|On this special edition of **The Underdog NFL Show**, Chris Horwedel continues his 2026 NFL division preview series with a full breakdown of the NFC South. After previously covering the NFC East and NFC North, Chris turns to one of football’s most unpredictable divisions, where the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, and Atlanta Falcons all enter the season with real questions and possible paths to the top.The episode looks at every NFC South team’s offseason moves, free-agent additions, trades, draft class, roster strengths, quarterback situation, division odds, Super Bowl odds, NFC Championship odds, finishing-position markets, and exact-order betting options from oddsmakers.Chris begins with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who enter as the division favorite despite losing franchise icon Mike Evans to San Francisco. He breaks down Baker Mayfield’s stability, the additions of Kenneth Gainwell and Cade Otton, Tampa Bay’s defensive reinforcements, and a defense-heavy draft led by Miami edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr.Next, the defending division champion Carolina Panthers get the spotlight. Chris discusses Bryce Young’s development, the importance of improved pass protection, major defensive additions Jaelan Phillips and Devin Lloyd, the Panthers’ investment in the offensive line with Monroe Freeling, and why Carolina may be more dangerous than the market suggests.The New Orleans Saints section focuses on Tyler Shough, Chris Olave, Travis Etienne, Jordyn Tyson, Noah Fant, Tyree Wilson, Cam Jordan’s final season, and whether New Orleans added enough offensive firepower to climb back into contention.Finally, Chris examines the Atlanta Falcons, including the unusual Michael Penix Jr. and Tua Tagovailoa quarterback setup, Drake London’s massive extension, Kyle Pitts’ uncertain future, Atlanta’s pass rush, Avieon Terrell, Zachariah Branch, Harold Perkins Jr., and the team’s wide range of possible outcomes.Chris closes with his NFC South prediction: Tampa Bay first, Carolina second, New Orleans third, and Atlanta fourth, while highlighting Tampa-Carolina as his favorite order-based betting angle.