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The Transfer Flow Podcast
Episode 50 - Champions League Roundup: Biggest Surprises, Giants Underperforming, and Top 8 Predictions
On this episode, Patrick and Ravi breakdown the Champions League after round 6. They start by discussing the new league phase format and the effects it may have down the road. Next, they look at the most surprising teams so far, as well as giants that have underperformed. Then, the conversation turns to young talents that are emerging. Which players have caught their eyes? And finally, they predict the top 8 and where the underperforming giants will finish in the table. All that and more on today’s episode, enjoy!
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Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Intro
00:01:00 - New Champions League format discussion
00:02:57 - New format = more marquee matchups
00:06:48 - 3 surprise teams this Champions League
00:07:20 - Aston Villa
00:09:00 - This is what Unai Emery does
00:10:45 - A clear path to the top 8
00:11:43 - Brest are struggling in Ligue 1, but have had the easiest path in the CL
00:12:39 - The rest of Brest’s schedule
00:14:05 - Lille actually have worse numbers than Brest in the CL
00:15:20 - Lille have had a pretty hard schedule
00:16:44 - Bruno Genesio has put together good plans and Lille have good talent
00:18:46 - Big name teams that are STRUGGLING
00:19:29 - City and PSG have good xG differential but are low in the table
00:20:06 - PSG are underperfoming their xG by a crazy amount due to bad misses
00:22:29 - Man City and PSG play a huge game in round 7
00:24:44 - City’s final game appears easy, but you never know
00:26:03 - Pep’s CL away record
00:27:38 - Are City’s league and CL problems the same?
00:30:07 - Rodri’s importance and who can replace him in January
00:32:29 - Real Madrid are unlikely to go out due to relatively easy last 2 games
00:34:25 - Qualified teams could put more pressure on these 3 teams
00:36:04 - Real Madrid don’t have free midweeks coming up
00:37:25 - Madrid’s xG conceded numbers are very high
00:38:31 - Atalanta’s style played into Madrid’s hand
00:39:25 - Madrid’s sorcery is getting weaker
00:40:27 - Emerging young talents
00:40:54 - Álvaro Carreras - Benfica
00:43:12 - Enzo Millot - Stuttgart
00:45:06 - Similar stats to Florian Wirtz
00:46:23 - Charles De Ketelaere - Atalanta
00:49:00 - Malik Tillman - PSV
00:51:22 - Johan Bakayoko - PSV
00:53:38 - Other player shoutouts
00:57:57 - Top 8 Predictions
01:00:16 - Real Madrid, PSG. Man City predictions
01:03:21 - Argentina’s 40-team league = CL table this year
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Episode 52 - The team that NEEDS to make €100m in sales + Evaluating Kompany at Bayern Munich
48:02|On this episode, Patrick and Ravi start by Discussing Vincent Kompany's tenure at Bayern Munich. They lead the Bundesliga, but have struggled in big matches. What's the best way to evaluate Kompany's performance? Then, the conversation switched to Lyon, who need to make 100M in sales this January to avoid being sent to Ligue 2. How has the happened, who will they sell, and what teams might those players go to? Finally, the Serie A title race has been close since the start of the season, but is it now down to 3 teams? Enjoy!Subscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribeJoin Variance Betting: https://www.thetransferflow.com/upgradeFollow us on our Socials:YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1QX: https://x.com/TheTransferFlowBluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/thetransferflow.bsky.socialInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcastTimestamps:00:00 - Intro01:06 - Vincent Kompany’s tenure as Bayern manager02:51 - What would be a successful first season?04:14 - Lack of success in Big Matches06:49 - They’ve missed key players for multiple matches08:00 - Do they have the squad for Kompany?10:26 - Bayern by the numbers this season13:35 - How Kompany has approached this season16:15 - How do you evaluate Kompany?17:33 - Should Bayern manage expectations?19:30 - Do you evaluate Kompany solely on big matches?21:36 - What positions should Bayern target in January?23:15 - Kimmich has played the most minutes and may leave24:50 - Why Lyon need to make 100M in January26:15 - Lyon have spent money poorly27:50 - Lyon are not a team that spend big money historically30:29 - Players Lyon can sell for significant money (Caqueret and Cherki)33:05 - Why hasn’t Cherki left Lyon yet?35:52 - Georges Mikautadze36:48 - Malick Fofana is a great prospect38:46 - Ernest Nuamah39:45 - What club for Fofana and Nuamah?40:51 - The Serie A title race41:29 - Is it a 3-team race (Inter Milan, Napoli and Lazio)?44:00 - Why Fiorentina is likely not a challenger44:38 - Napoli’s advantage45:27 - Upcoming schedules for the top teamsEpisode 51 - Is something WRONG with Arsenal? + Late drama in the Manchester Derby
43:29|On this episode, Ted and Patrick start by discussing Arsenal's recent run of poor results. What's going wrong, how can they fix it, and do they need to add someone in January? Next, Russell Martin and Gary O'Neil were sacked this weekend. Why did it happen and should the firings have come sooner? The conversation moves to the Manchester Derby after United edge out a 2-1 win over City thanks to 2 late goals. What's wrong with City, can Pep fix it, and just how good is Amad Diallo? To end the episode they discuss Diego Gomez' move from Inter Miami to Brighton, marking the first move of the January window. Enjoy!Subscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribeJoin Variance Betting: https://www.thetransferflow.com/upgradeFollow us on our Socials:YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1QX: https://x.com/TheTransferFlowBluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/thetransferflow.bsky.socialInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcastTimestamps:00:00 - Intro01:06 - What’s wrong with Arsenal?02:22 - An accumulation of imperfect choices04:07 - Lack of squad depth06:31 - Injuries have been a factor, but they have played conservatively07:59 -The piece they’re missing09:51 - Martinelli11:30 - Why Odegaard might be tired + stories from Ted15:06 - Should Arteta be playing more aggressively?16:30 - The risk/reward trade off of pushing for more goals18:16 - What kind of player should Arsenal target in January?21:28 - Russell Martin FINALLY sacked by Southampton24:21 - Why did they keep him so long?26:01 - Wolves Firing Gary O’Neil29:18 - How many EPL teams allowed over 60 xG last season?30:09 - Late drama in the Manchester Derby31:09 - City couldn’t get anything going32:21 - Lack of quality at DM and fullback are hurting Pep33:52 - Can pep fix it?34:32 - Can they buy their way out of it in January?35:17 - Amad Diallo35:57 - The first transfer of the window: Gomez to Brighton36:54 - Neymar to join Lionel Messi at Inter Miami?38:41 - Brighton’s strategy of stacking up useful talent39:59 - It may allow them to make consistent Champions League runs soon41:51 - Ted’s recent run on Variance BettingEpisode 49 - Why Man United fired their Sporting Director + Chelsea's attack is FLYING
39:59|On this episode, Ted and Patrick start by discussing Manchester United and Dan Ashworth parting ways. What did Ashworth do in his 5 months at United, who will be their next Sporting Director, and will Amorim be allowed to get his guys in the squad? Then, Chelsea's 4-3 win over Spurs highlighted Tottenham's injury crisis. Can Ange Postecoglou fix the squad, or are they destined to have some heartbreak this season. The conversation switches to Cole Palmer, is he the best player in the Premier League or does he still have some growing to do? Finally, Andoni Iraola has Bournemouth high up the table, but will he move to a bigger club after this season? Stay tuned for Ted's Story at the end of the episode! Enjoy. Subscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribeJoin Variance Betting: https://www.thetransferflow.com/upgradeFollow us on our Socials:YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1QX: https://x.com/TheTransferFlowBluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/thetransferflow.bsky.socialInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcastTimestamps:00:00 - Intro01:06 - Dan Ashworth Out as Manchester United Sporting Director03:18 - Who can replace him?04:02 - United are trying to Pin blame on Ashworth05:03 - What did Ashworth do in his 5 months at United?06:40 - What do United do next?08:26 - How good is Dan Ashworth actually?10:23 - How outside consultants provide value to a club12:41 - Will United allow Amorim to bring in his guys?14:27 - Chelsea defeats Tottenham, 4-315:49 - Spurs are so injured16:24 - No centerbacks for Spurs17:37 - Social media videos hiding mistakes + Cucurella mistake19:05 - Both teams were spotted goals20:08 - Takeaways from the game for Tottenham20:37 - Chelsea’s attack is flying21:53 - Can Ange fix this despite the injuries?23:09 - Is Cole Palmer the best player in the Premier League?24:40 - We’ve become indifferent to Saka because of how long he’s been good25:37 - Palmer pulls the strings for Chelsea’s break26:36 - You can’t overplay Palmer due to Chelsea’s squad27:11 - The free role allows Palmer to develop more skills27:48 - What about Palmer’s defensive side?29:16 - What happens if Palmer doesn’t score in preseason and never leaves City?32:03 - Andoni Iraola is due for a big move this summer33:00 - Iraola = Dr. Octopus from Spiderman 33:47 - Bournemouth has done really well under Iraola34:45 - Where could Iraola end up?38:34 - Story Time with Ted#premierleague #manchesterunited #chelsea #tottenham #colepalmer #bournemouth #sakaEpisode 48 - Is Lamine Yamal ALREADY the best player in La Liga, Barcelona's registration issues, and how have Real Madrid closed the gap?
44:47|On this episode, Patrick and Ravi start by discussing Barcelona's recent run of form and how much they've relied on 17-year-old Lamine Yamal. Is the teenager already the best player in La Liga? Then, they move to Barcelona's recurring registration issues. Why does this keep happening and how can they fix it? Next they discuss Real Madrid, whose recent run of form has them back near the top of the table. Will they be forced to spend big in the Winter if they continue to struggle in the Champions League? Finally, Atletico Madrid have figured out how to use Julian Alvarez, but are they good enough to win the League? Enjoy!Subscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribeJoin Variance Betting: https://www.thetransferflow.com/upgradeFollow us on our Socials:YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1QX: https://x.com/TheTransferFlowBluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/thetransferflow.bsky.socialInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcastTimestamps: 00:00 - Intro01:39 - What’s happening with Barcelona recently?02:33 - Due a loss after a run of tough games03:35 - Lamine Yamal’s importance to Barcelona05:08 - Why does Yamal attract so much attention?06:21 - His assist yesterday was a skill even Messi didn’t do often07:01 - Yamal’s work out of position sets him apart10:31 - Why didn’t Barcelona run away with the title11:55 - Barca are much more direct this year12:35 - Hansi Flick’s success with a changing defensive line13:25 - Barcelona have never pressed this much13:55 - Is Lamine Yamal the best player in La Liga?14:33 - One aspect he needs to improve upon16:09 - Wenger helped Thierry Henry fix a similar problem17:04 - Barcelona’s registration issues and Dani Olmo18:32 - They tried to solve their issues but failed20:07 - Didn’t the Nike deal fix it?23:26 - Could they be forced to sell Frenkie de Jong?26:25 - Real Madrid’s recent form27:45 - An easier run of games in La Liga than the Champions League28:17 - Starting to get players back from injury30:33 - Will Madrid’s young players keep their spot in the squad?31:00 - Will Madrid make a big splash in the Winter Window?34:02 - If they struggle towards the end of the group stage, they may try to make a move34:53 - Atletico Madrid are quietly near the top of the table36:12 - They’ve figured out how fit Julian Alvarez into the squad37:30 - Atletico are playing a few youngsters39:15 - Can they improve their set pieces?42:28 - Odds for Atletico to win La Liga?Episode 47 - What's wrong with Phil Foden + Is Saka the BEST player in the league?
36:08|On this episode, Ted and Patrick start by discussing Phil Foden. Why has the reigning Player of the Season's production dropped for Manchester City? They then move to Aston Villa and Unai Emery, who are struggling over their last few games. Is this expected after Emery's time at Villarreal, or will they find a way to improve? Then, Brentford is must-see TV at home against lesser teams. Will Thomas Frank leave the club at the end of the season? Finally, they discuss Bukayo Saka's importance to Arsenal as their "glue guy." Is Saka the BEST player in the Premier League right now? Watch until the end for a glimpse behind the scenes.Kim's Struggle Era article: https://www.thetransferflow.com/p/your-team-s-struggle-era-lineups-are-hilariousSubscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribeJoin Variance Betting: https://www.thetransferflow.com/upgradeFollow us on our Socials:YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1QX: https://x.com/TheTransferFlowBluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/thetransferflow.bsky.socialInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcastTimestamps:00:00 - Intro01:07 - What’s wrong with Phil Foden?02:54 - Lack of shooting success this year04:23 - Maintained shot numbers, just less xG on each06:43 - How dead are Man City?07:56 - Kim’s struggle era article09:01 - How did City allow Salah to run at them multiple times?10:53 - Foden’s shift towards creating vs. shooting11:38 - Are Foden’s struggles Doku’s fault?13:26 - City’s success over the last 6 years has led to this14:17 - Aston Villa are STRUGGLING15:10 - Similarities to Unai Emery’s time at Villarreal17:48 - Villa are riding the wave of variance18:15 - Emery will have his best moments in the CL Knockout rounds20:17 - Villa are good at executing set pieces21:33 - Brentford home games are must see TV22:39 - Brentford make a stylistic choice depending on their opponent24:22 - Thomas Frank's skill as a manager25:12 - Elite managers switch their styles when needed (Conte/Fergie)27:42 - Is Bukayo Saka the best player in the Premier League?28:47 - Saka is a “glue guy” for Arsenal30:23 - Saka remained productive with Odegaard out31:33 - The combination of Odegaard and Saka is what beats teams over and over32:25 - Saka, Palmer, and Salah are the 3 best players right now33:17 - How you can help us34:40 - Story time with Ted#premierleague #manchestercity #arsenal #foden #saka #astonvillaEpisode 46 - Barcelona Transfer Rumours: Replacing Aging Stars, The Answer at Left Wing, and who to sign at Right Back?
44:40|On this episode, Patrick and Ravi discuss Barcelona's needs for the upcoming transfer window. They begin at right back, where they haven't had a stable answer in years. Should they bring in Devyne Rensch, bring back a former player, or swing for the fences and sign Trent Alexander-Arnold or Alphonso Davies?? Then comes striker, how do they handle finding a backup for Robert Lewandowski? Getting the position right could extend Lewandowski's peak, but is it a low-risk strategy? Next comes left winger, where Rafael Leao could make a splash move. However, is his defensive work rate too low to work with Lewandowski? And finally, Ravi tells all on Borja Sainz, who might be the next big move for Athletic Club. Subscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribeJoin Variance Betting: https://www.thetransferflow.com/upgradeFollow us on our Socials:YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1QX: https://x.com/TheTransferFlowBluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/thetransferflow.bsky.socialInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcastTimestamps:00:00 - Intro00:30 - Barca have produced academy kids at many positions03:11 - Defenders Barcelona could be looking at03:14 - Devyne Rensch from Ajax05:22 - One Quality he has that’s very important09:38 - Barcelona have been searching for the answer at RB10:32 - The changing nature of the fullback position12:22 - Óscar Mingueza13:08 - He’s all-out attack15:02 - Is he a profile that Barcelona need?16:06 - Could Trent Alexander-Arnold come on board?17:17 - Alphonso Davies is more realistic w/ Hansi Flick as manager18:24 - Vitor Roque as a Lewandowski Replacement19:17 - Jonathan David20:36 - David plays a different style than Lewandowski22:58 - Prolonging Lewandowski’s peak25:51 - It’s a low-risk strategy28:04 - What’s the plan at left winger and goalkeeper?29:35 - Rafael Leao could bring magic to the wing30:30 - How much defensive work will he really do?32:20 - Leao is a Soloist34:03 - Leao and Lewandowksi can’t coexist defensively 35:22 - Borja Sainz is on a tear38:12 - He’s also a good presser38:51 - He’s from the Basque region, could Athletic Club be interested?40:31 - Could an EPL team swoop him up?Episode 45 - How Amorim already changed United + Man City's downward spiral
37:01|On this episode, Ted and Patrick start with Mo Salah's goal vs. Southampton and how good Liverpool need to be to win the title this year. Then comes Man City, whose 4-0 loss to Tottenham marks their 5th straight defeat. City need help, but can they hang on until the January window? Next, Ruben Amorim led United to a 1-1 draw with Ipswich in his first game as manager. How much impact has he had already, and how long will it take for United to turn things around? Finally, the episode ends with discussion of Arsenal vs. Forest, Everton vs. Brentford, and Joao Pedro's wonderful assist vs. Bournemouth. Enjoy!Subscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribeJoin Variance Betting: https://www.thetransferflow.com/upgradeFollow us on our Socials:YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1QX: https://x.com/TheTransferFlowBluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/thetransferflow.bsky.socialInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcastTimestamps:00:00 - Intro01:24 - An Interesting Segue and Mo Salah’s goal03:16 - A Bad defensive performance from Liverpool04:15 - Liverpool are on the good side of Variation (but they create it too)05:39 - Liverpool don’t need to be THAT great to win the title06:36 - Man City lose their 5th game in a row07:38 - Kyle Walker is no longer Pep’s get out of jail free card09:18 - City need 3 players in the January window11:04 - Tottenham were constantly running at the back four12:34 - Ruben Amorim’s first match as United manager13:40 - Amorim’s influence is already showing14:38 - Who is scoring goals for United?15:48 - United built through the wingbacks (especially Mazraoui)17:05 - United will continue to change over the next few weeks19:43 - Who are the wide attackers that are helping to create for United?20:52 - Will Gyokeres be the solution? + Should United become Sporting21:45 - Where will United finish this year?22:57 - Arsenal vs. Forest 25:20 - Odegaard facilitated the Arsenal attack, which was missing while he was gone26:56 - Arsenal have to figure out how to attack without relying on Odegaard27:32 - Arsenal haven’t put games away this season28:06 - Leads allow teams to transition more30:16 - Everton vs. Brentford30:45 - Everton went up a man but couldn’t find a goal32:45 - Joao Pedro’s assist in Brighton’s win over Bournemouth33:32 - The angled run from Mitoma was beautiful34:24 - Fans of big teams only are selling themselves short this season35:41 - Taking a break Thursday and FridayEpisode 44 - Real Madrid Transfer Rumours: Addressing their defensive needs, signing Florian Wirtz, and taking BOTH Trent-Alexander Arnold and Mo Salah from Liverpool
48:22|On this episode, Patrick and Ravi discuss the many transfer rumours surrounding Real Madrid. They start with Centre backs, and look at options for both established players and rising young stars. Next, they look at options for right back. Could they promote a youngster from their academy? The conversation moves to Florian Wirtz, who has been linked to Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, and Manchester City. Finally, they end the podcast by discussing if Madrid can take Trent Alexander-Arnold AND Mo Salah from Liverpool, whether any of these transfers solve their Mbappe problem, and if Vinicius will be sold in the coming years. Subscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribeJoin Variance Betting: https://www.thetransferflow.com/upgradeFollow us on our Socials:YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1QX: https://x.com/TheTransferFlowBluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/thetransferflow.bsky.socialInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcastTimestamps: 00:00 - Intro01:47 - Pressing Concern at Centreback for Real Madrid02:10 - Madrid’s current options at CB03:43 - Is there an obvious profile for them?05:03 - Hard to find solutions in January05:31 - Tchouaméni at CB?06:04 - 2 groups of candidates we’re hearing08:28 - Real Madrid won’t throw away this season + how they should approach it09:35 - Jonathan Tah from Leverkusen11:28 - Tah plays for Xabi Alonso, who is rumoured to be at Madrid next season11:49 - Aymeric Laporte13:27 - Mario Hermoso14:38 - The information we don’t have15:24 - The most likely option out of these 316:18 - The younger players Real Madrid could be looking at16:42 - Vitor Reis from Palmeiras18:22 - A recruiters perspective of a young prospect20:19 - Madrid’s Brazilian players could make the move easier for Reis21:51 - Castello Lukeba from RB Leipzig25:13 - Murillo from Nottingham Forest28:04 - Does Madrid’s current squad push you to a more established player?29:23 - Tah’s Leverkusen defensive partner, Piero Hincapié31:19 - Options for right back?31:27 - Could Madrid address this through their academy, or is it a response to Barcelona’s success?31:52 - Asencio as an option33:16 - Jesus Fortea34:02 - Do Madrid need to improve their Academy strategy, or is it inevitable with how they handle transfers?37:17 - Florian Wirtz linked with Madrid, Bayern and Man City38:29 - Not a great fit for Madrid39:11 - Guler linked to Arsenal42:11 - Wirtz makes more sense for Bayern42:47 - Could Madrid take Trent Alexander-Arnold AND Mo Salah from Liverpool?43:44 - Madrid would have to sell Rodrygo44:37 - None of this solves their Mbappe Problem46:14 - Could Madrid be forced to sell Vinicius?#realmadrid #transfernews #mbappe #vinicius #rodrygo #ardagüler #wirtz #laliga #championsleague #madrid