The Transfer Flow Podcast

Patrick and Ted start the episode by discussing the North London Derby and the weakness that Spurs continue to show in their midfield. Next, they move to Liverpool, who seemed to have fixed there defense, but were unable to get anything going offensively. After touching on City vs Brighton and United vs Southampton, they move to Newcastle's Internal power struggle, as Eddie Howe and Paul Mitchell compete for power. Finally, they end the episode with their thoughts on Chelsea vs Bournemouth (hint: not good) and West Ham vs Fulham. Enjoy!Subscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribeJoin Variance Betting: https://www.thetransferflow.com/upgradeFollow us on our Socials:Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1QX: https://x.com/TheTransferFlowInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcastTIMESTAMPS:00:00 - Intro03:28 - Arsenal vs. Spurs04:47 - The midfield battle06:30 - Spurs crosses were not effective07:38 - How teams can get value from crosses09:23 - Watching the ball vs. the man10:11 - Spurs' biggest weakness10:41 - The type of midfielder Spurs needed11:52 - More opportunities for mistakes13:40 - The evolution of pressing14:33 - Alexis Sanchez' pressing ability15:32 - Arsenal's plan this game18:39 - The launch of Variance Betting19:38 - Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest19:53 - High handicaps coming off international break20:43 - The signs of value of Nottingham Forest22:22 - Liverpool's defense continues to shine23:14 - Liverpool's offensive struggles25:05 - Ryan Gravenberch in a deeper role27:16 - Brentford vs. City28:11 - Thomas Frank as Manager31:12 - Brentford's possession #'s against City31:28 - City's lack of pressing32:05 - The problems Pep is facing34:20 - Manchester United vs Southampton35:37 - United's set piece goal36:40 - Tyler Dibling37:24 - Is Russell Martin's job safe?40:13 - Newcastle's internal conflict42:21 - Paul Mitchell vs Eddie Howe44:24 - Newcastle are doing well in the table44:46 - How do Newcastle mend things?46:06 - Chelsea vs Bournemouth47:17 - Subbing in Neto for Jadon Sancho48:09 - Bad signs for long-term success48:55 - Chelsea need a structured attack50:53 - West Ham vs Fulham51:37 - Danny Ings53:21 - Brighton vs Ipswich

Ted Knutson, former professional gambler, explains his best betting practices and discusses his Premier League Matchday 4 picks. Subscribe for more!Join Variance Betting: https://www.thetransferflow.com/upgradeSubscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribeFollow us on our Socials:Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1QX: https://x.com/TheTransferFlowInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcastTIMESTAMPS:00:00 Introduction1:44 Who is Ted Knutson?2:20 Working With Pinnacle.com Products3:26 Working at Brentford/Midtjylland & SmartOdds4:05 Founding StatsBomb4:25 Present Day — TheTransferFlow.com4:58 Variance Betting Principles5:21 Discount Bookies > Bonuses8:20 Price Shop10:37 Working with Models & Knowledge12:35 Why Early Season is Tricky13:54 Your Bets are your own14:47 Market Implied (MI) Model16:18 Be careful about Promoted Teams17:18 Expected Goals (xG) Model18:07 Caveats21:06 Plugs20:23 Recreational Sports Betting22:32 Brighton v Ipswich Bet23:52 Southampton v Man United Bet25:11 Crystal Palace v Leicester Bet26:02 Fulham v West Ham No Bet26:25 Liverpool v Nottingham Forest Bet27:25 Man City v Brentford No Bet28:35 Aston Villa v Everton No Bet29:46 Bournemouth v Chelsea Bet31:20 Spurs v Arsenal Bet32:39 Wolves v Newcastle No Bet33:31 Recap 33:54 Outro

Ted and Ravi start by discussing a controversial analytics take from someone that's a part of the community. Next, they talk about Chelsea's owner rift and the leaks that suggest a potential buyout may happen. They then get into discussion about Arsenal's injury situation with Martin Odegaard and Mikel Merino set to miss time. And finally, they wrap up with the MLS transfer window and all of the things that you need to know about that, including biggest additions and misses of the window.Subscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribeFollow us on our Socials:Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1QX: https://x.com/TheTransferFlowInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcastTIMESTAMPS:00:00 - Intro01:48 - Is analytics for player recruitment solved?03:18 - every action in football has 3 parts04:40 - You don't have data for everything06:15 - Difficulty at scale07:30 - Different level of information impacting decision makers09:48 - Evaluating players from lower leagues11:53 - Player factors impact on transfer success13:55 - Chelsea's ownership rift16:13 - Boehly joined and isntantly became Interim Sporting Director16:58 - Where this confidence comes from17:43 - 2 captains driving the boat19:52 - Football clubs run like investment funds21:46 - Blitzer and Harris make co-ownership work22:31 - Arsenal's injury situation23:59 - Small point loses feel insurmountable 25:04 - What would a long-term Odegaard injury mean?26:06 - Champions League format changes help26:29 - September International break29:18 - MLS window rules and time period30:21 - MLS is paying real money32:22 - Their offset window creates mismatches33:45 - Josh Sargent example35:17 - How MLS can fix this issue35:58 - Extra problems that come with overseas transfers37:48 - The profile of MLS Winter signings38:28 - NWSL eliminating the draft39:45 - MLS academies draining talent out of the draft41:12 - Balancing International roster spots42:13 - Big free agent signings - Giroud and Reus42:50 - Discovery Lists44:16 - Griezmann rumours47:15 - MLS connection with South/Latin America48:15 - Spurs weird deal for Johnny Cardoso49:20 - More additions to the MLS this year51:10 - Players the U.S. and Canada excel at creating52:26 - Deals that fell through because of the deadline mismatches

Ted and Ravi discuss the summer windows for Manchester United, Southampton, Tottenham, West Ham and Wolves. They start with United's expensive, but sensible, window and how their new signings may fit in the squad. Then comes newly promoted Southampton, who made additions at goalkeeper and to their defense in the hopes of staying up. Tottenham paid up for Dominic Solanke and Archie Gray, while West Ham spent too much on a number of different moves. Finally, we discuss Wolves window and what essentially feels like them playing the lottery. Ugarte Newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/p/manuel-ugarte-manchester-united-transfer-rumours-analysisSubscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribeFollow us on our Socials:Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1QX: https://x.com/TheTransferFlowInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcastTIMESTAMPS:00:00 Intro0:36 Man United Overview1:50 Man United Finishing Top 42:14 Squad Needing Change2:59 Resisting Overpaying3:58 Joshua Zirkzee4:11 De Ligt4:50 Too Many Ajax Players?5:16 Overpaying For Leny Yoro5:30 Window Review6:37 Manuel Ugarte8:00 United Outgoings11:10 Southampton Overview11:59 Aaron Ramsdale12:31 Making Loans Permanent13:02 Mateus Fernandes13:40 Yukinari Sugawara14:00 Brereton Diaz15:02 Some Confusing Signings15:40 Southampton Outgoings15:51 Southampton Overall Grade16:22 Spurs Overview16:56 Dominic Solanke18:30 Overpaying for youngsters?19:46 Incomings Grade19:52 Spurs Outgoings21:38 West Ham Overview22:30 Risky Transfer Strategy?23:42 Niclas Fullkrug26:19 Max Kilman26:45: Jean-Claire Todibo27:41 Wan-Bissaka &28:09: West Ham Outgoings28:42 Outgoing Grades28:57 Wolves Overview29:24 Wolves Outgoings29:39 Andre30:00 Sam Johnstone30:23 Strand Larsen31:36 Wolves Overall Grade32:21 Outro

On this episode, Ted and Ravi discuss the transfer windows for Leicester City, Liverpool, Manchester City, Newcastle, and Nottingham Forrest. They start with a confusing window for Leicester and move to Liverpool in their first window under Arne Slot. Next up is Manchester City, who made some good moves and got good value for Julian Alvarez. Then comes Newcastle, who had possibly the worst window of any team not named Chelsea. Finally, they discuss Nottingham Forest's VERY busy window. Link to the newsletter for part 3:https://www.thetransferflow.com/p/liverpool-gearing-massive-changesSubscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribeFollow us on our Socials:Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1QX: https://x.com/TheTransferFlowInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcastTIMESTAMPS: 00:00 - Intro00:48 - Leicester City Inbounds01:41 - Bilal El Khannouss02:55 - Caleb Okoli and Odsonne Édouard03:42 - Oliver Skipp and Harry Winks05:06 - Facundo Buonanotte's loan06:45 - Leicester's Overall Grade07:02 - Using early games to predict relegation09:13 - Liverpool's transition window11:09 - Lack of new contracts for their 3 stars15:00 - Long-term view vs. short/medium term16:00 - When to move on from stars17:45 - Salah changing his game as he ages20:28 - The decision for TAA/ Real Madrid leveraging stars22:15 - Zubimendi in January?22:56 - Manchester City's Window and Sávio23:30 - Gundogan joining from Barcelona 24:45 - Selling Julian Alvarez26:47 - Madrid coming for Rodri?27:58 - Newcastle's Window28:13 - Their lone savior?29:26 - Not overpaying for Marc Guehi31:49 - Clubs that are good at extracting value for players34:20 - Nottingham Forrest's busy window35:43 - Evaluating their window on face value36:33 - Inbound grade for Forest37:32 - Did they solve their issues from last year?

Chelsea's transfer window was a disaster, so make sure to listen until the end to hear our thoughts on what is probably the worst window for ANY club in many years. We're grading 5 teams in alphabetical order on the second episode of our offseason transfer grades, starting with Crystal Palace and their head-scratching decision to not sell Marc Guehi to Newcastle. Then, Everton's Poor window to go along with their lackluster start of the season. Next comes Fulham, who sold João Palhinha for 50m, but chose to reinvest some of that money into older players. And finally, before we go in on Chelsea, we touch on Ipswich's risky transfer strategy and how it sets them up for the future, even in they get relegated. Subscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribeFollow us on our Socials:Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1QX: https://x.com/TheTransferFlowInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcastTimestamps - 00:00 - Intro02:06 - Crystal Palace's Window02:42 - Failing to sell Marc Guehi03:36 - 2 new centerbacks04:04 - Oliver Glasner as manager04:18 - Will Hughes04:53 - Teams Scrambling to find a backup goalkeeper05:18 - Joachim Andersen05:53 - What will they get out of Eddie Nketiah?07:38 - The Grade for Crystal Palace08:09 - 5M for Jordan Ayew??08:21 - Moving on to Everton09:02 - Blowing a 2-0 lead in the 87'09:40 - Jarrad Branthwaite and Jacob O'Brien10:45 - Everton's struggles this window12:27 - Their squad mismanagement13:58 - Everton get their Grade14:26 - Fulham's window15:37 - 50M+ for João Palhinha and where they spent the money16:39 - Spending money on older players18:03 - Elite players can age gracefully20:05 - Emile Smith-Rowe and Joachim Anderson20:48 - Grades for Fulham21:05 - Ipswich's window22:12 - the need to change their playstyle23:48 - Ed Sheeran and Taylor Swift24:13 - The 3 options Ipswich had entering the Premier League25:44 - Risky transfers that set them up for success27:14 - Ipswich's lack of outgoings27:51 - Chelsea's crazy window28:41 - Ravi's biggest issue with Chelsea's window30:11 - A fix for load management?30:44 - Chelsea operating like an investment fund33:33 - A huge risk on Pedro Neto35:16 - Similarities to Barcelona36:13 - Where Chelsea deserve credit37:07 - Chelsea's assumptions make backfire39:44 - How did Chelsea grade?

Ravi and Patrick discuss Federico Chiesa signing with Liverpool, his role, and the potential to move out wide. Next, they move to Darwin Nunez potentially leaving Liverpool, Arsenal being a possible landing spot, and Arsenal lacking attacking depth. They then touch on Newcastle's interest in RB Leipzig defender Mohamed Simakan after being unable to finish their Marc Guehi transfer, comparisons of the two players, and Newcastle's hopes for the season. Lastly, they finish with Dani Olmo's fantastic Barcelona debut, and the injury to 17-year-old midfielder Marc Bernal.Subscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribeFollow us on our Socials: Follow us on our Socials:Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1QX: https://x.com/TheTransferFlowInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcast

On this episode, Patrick and Ravi discuss Napoli's move this off-season, including new manager Antonio Conte, and how what Victor Osimhen's price is now. Next, they move to Juventus and their acquisition of Francisco Conceicao and Nico Gonzalez. They also touch on Dominic Calvert-Lewin being linked with Chelsea, Barcelona FINALLY registering Dani Olmo, and what the future may look like for Endrick at Real Madrid. Subscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribeFollow us on our Socials: Follow us on our Socials:Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1QX: https://x.com/TheTransferFlowInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcastTIMESTAMPS: 00:00 - Intro03:00 - Napoli's moves this Summer04:40 - Conte as Napoli's Manager05:56 - The addition of Lukaku08:03 - Scott McTominay09:50 - Coaching Blindspots13:12 - Billy Gilmour13:45 - David Neres17:41 - New Centerbacks20:01 - Osimhen's Price22:49 - The issues PSG are facing23:56 - Juventus targeting wingers24:30 - Francisco Conceicao28:23 - Nico Gonzalez30:43 - The financial risk of amortization31:02 - Liverpool's approach vs Juve and Napoli37:09 - Chelsea and Dominic Calvert-Lewin46:34 - Could Arsenal be in for DCL?51:24 - Dani Olmo Registered by Barcelona54:49 - Endrick's Future