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The Ponsonby and Massie Podcast
SCOT PARL 2026 - ONE WEEK TO GO - Electoral Maths and Key Seats
Ep. 110
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- SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS 2026
- Why boundary changes make election-night swings harder to read
- Prof Chris Hanretty explains “notional results” — the hidden baseline for 2026
- Reform’s zero-start problem: easy for notionals, difficult for interpretation
- Could a split unionist vote hand the SNP a majority on a third of the vote?
- Knife-edge seats: Edinburgh South, Glasgow list battles and the local-factor problem
- Is Holyrood’s voting system still proportional enough for a six-party Scotland?
Focussing on UK, Scottish and Global politics, if you like other great political podcasts like The Rest is Politics, The News Agents, Newscast, Questions Time, Holyrood Sources, Planet Holyrood, The Stooshie, The Steamie, Scotcast, Americast etc etc then The Ponsonby and Massie Podcast could be a great show to add to your list of favourites.
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115. Murrell, Sturgeon & Swinney - Who Knew What, When?
34:21||Ep. 115Increasingly, it looks like the scandal that has rocked the SNP will not go away. Peter Murrell's admission and subsequent conviction have led to more questions. Bernard Ponsonby and Alex Massie discuss.PONSONBY - John Swinney may need an independent inquiry into SNP governance, because a party-led response risks looking like a whitewash.MASSIE - Nicola Sturgeon’s core problem is not only “what did she know?” but “what should she have known?” as SNP leader signing off party accounts.PONSONBY - Many mainstream journalists were “asleep at the wheel” while Sean Clerkin and Stuart Campbell kept pressing questions others dismissed.MASSIE - the SNP may face an impossible choice: stand by Sturgeon or “throw her under the campervan” to draw a line under the scandal.PONSONBY - the SNP finance scandal is sensational but may not have a lasting electoral impact — unless the party mishandles the demand for answers.
114. Swinney's Cabinet - Analysis & Verdict
40:03||Ep. 114Swinney’s new Scottish Government is smaller, reshuffled and designed to signal seriousness about reform.Ivan McKee’s public service reform role is framed as the key test: finding billions in savings without triggering political backlash.The SNP faces a clash between pro-growth rhetoric, welfare expansion, price controls and the hard reality of Scotland’s projected budget black hole.Jenny Gilruth, Stephen Flynn, Màiri McAllan and Stephen Gethins are discussed as signs of future SNP leadership positioning.At Westminster, Andy Burnham’s by-election bid is portrayed as potentially decisive for Labour’s leadership and Keir Starmer’s future.
113. STARMER AND THE "KING IN THE NORTH"
44:46||Ep. 113Keir Starmer, Andy Burnham and the fight for who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK?Bernard Ponsonby and Alex Massie discuss the battle for Labour's leadership.
112. SCOTTISH ELECTIONS - Results & Verdict
48:53||Ep. 112SNP wins again — but the victory comes with serious caveatsJohn Swinney secures a remarkable third decade of SNP governmentLabour and Reform tied for second in seats - a brutal night for the old partiesScottish Labour’s decline continues — and the damage may have been made in LondonAnas Sarwar’s future: safe for now, but questions are unavoidableKeir Starmer under mounting pressure after disastrous UK-wide resultsReform’s Scottish breakthrough: from nowhere to 17 MSPsHas Farageism now found a place in Scottish politics?The Conservatives collapse from second place to fifthCalls to ‘unite the right’ may grow after Reform splits the unionist voteThe Greens surge with breakthrough wins in Edinburgh Central and Glasgow SouthsideRoss Greer’s targeted campaign hailed as one of the most effective of the electionLib Dem revival gives them real leverage in the next parliamentLiam McArthur tipped as possible next Presiding OfficerWill SNP deal with Lib Dems rather than Greens on budgets?Stephen Flynn’s arrival at Holyrood could reshape SNP politicsOil and gas tensions expose a divide between North East SNP and Central Belt SNPTurnout falls sharply — nearly half of voters stayed at homeA parliament transformed beneath the surface, even if the SNP still dominatesThe next Holyrood term may be the most difficult of the devolution era
111. SCOTTISH ELECTION - Final Polls, Predictions & Campaign Verdict
47:28||Ep. 111Final polls before Scotland votesSNP on course to be largest party - but can they form a government?Reform tipped for a major breakthroughCould Reform become the main opposition?Polls say Labour facing a potentially disastrous night but how will electoral quirks effect this? What a bad result means for Anas SarwarConservatives under pressure as support fallsTurnout fears and the “don’t know” votersWhy the campaign failed to inspireGreens and Lib Dems eye influence at HolyroodWhat happens if the SNP fall short of a majorityCould Scottish results deepen Keir Starmer’s crisis?
109. SCOT PARL 2026 - 2 WEEKS TO GO - Is this the most boring campaign ever?
34:31||Ep. 109Scottish election campaign is being eclipsed by Westminster politics and feels flat:Starmer’s Mandelson/Olly Robbins row is deepening:Labour MPs appear to be losing faith in Starmer:The real damage is about competence and cronyism:Low turnout could be the big story of the Scottish election:SNP still look best placed despite a lacklustre campaign:
108. SCOT PARL 2026 - 3 WEEKS TO GO - Latest Polling Insights With Mark Diffley
48:10||Ep. 108With 3 weeks until the Scottish Parliament Elections 2026, leading pollster, Mark Diffley, joins Bernard and Alex with the latest insights. What are the latest polls saying?Why there is much to play for in marginal seats?How vote share translates to seats and the big changes that can come from small marginsWhich seats to watch for upsets?
107. SCOT PARL 2026 - 4 Weeks To Go - Latest Polls and Leaders Debate Preview
39:23||Ep. 107New polls suggest the SNP remains on course to win comfortably, but key questions remain over whether John Swinney secures a majority or must rely on support from other parties.Is Reform UK Scotland losing some momentum, with recent polling and campaign controversies raising doubts about whether it can sustain earlier advances.Sunday’s televised leaders’ debate is especially high-stakes for Malcolm Offord, while Anas Sarwar, John Swinney and Russell Findlay each face different political and performance pressures.After the election the real challenge may be Scotland’s fiscal crunch, with all parties accused of avoiding hard truths about spending, deficits and the affordability of manifesto promises.