The Other Hand

The world is changing. Rapidly. Have we noticed?

Budget 2025 has been derailed by Project 2025 - the radical agenda denied by Trump during his campaign (it really is so extreme even he had to disavow it). Notwithstanding the denials, Project 2025 is now being implemented. But few Irish or European politicians seem to have noticed.Latest EU Commission economic forecasts are pretty dire.The US is leaving the EU for dust. And a new gap has emerged: the EU North versus the Eu SouthWill the EU ever be an economically dynamic region again?Has the battle against inflation really been won? At least one natural gas price has doubled recently.China is limbering up to fight the Trump trade war.

Trump is impossible to forecast - so should we stop trying? Is talking about him merely enabling him? Colluding with him?There is a spiders-web of connections between Trump and Brexit.Farage, Le Pen and Orban have a new spring in their step.Brexiteers still hanker after a free trade deal with the US. They must confront the reality of a protectionist US President - and government.One way Trump could make mischief would be to implement his global tariffs but offer the UK an exemption. The British government could hardly say no. But that would blow out of the water all of their efforts 'to get closer to the EU'. That would be the end of the 'rebuilding trust' project.Brexit is now too difficult to talk about. It may even be a problem too difficult to solve. Most Britons agree that Brexit was a mistake but is now a problem child best kept hidden.Electorates everywhere want anything but the truth.A fabulous conversation with Professor Chris Grey

The list of reasons why Trump won is getting longer. Some make sense, some do not. We look at the evidence-based ones. One very stark conclusion: not every Trump voter thinks all that positively about the President-elect. It's simply that they find the Democratic Party even more repulsive.The Trump trade is on. The stock market loves the prospect of trade wars, budget-busting tax cuts and mass deportations. Something doesn't add up.Incumbent governments everywhere are having a very hard time. The outgoing Irsh coalition should take note.Old media is as wounded as the opinion poll industry. Podcasting helped win it for Trump. A billion spent on TV ads did nothing for Harris.

Well, we said it was the year of election. Now we live with the consequences.

The first UK budget ever delivered by a female Chancellor was presented with aplomb and panache. A pity the details didn’t match up to the presentation.

Germany is in economic trouble. Its car industry - 7% of the economy - is being squeezed by struggling exports (to China in particular) and a poorly handled transition to EVs.Add in problems that go back decades and maybe its time to become a Eurosceptic again. If Trump wins, the Democrats need to look in mirror.