The Numbers

Premier Danielle Smith has added a question on Alberta separation to the October 19 referendum ballot, a move that will have repercussions for the country and the province. But is it primarily a debate being held amongst the supporters of her own party?This week on The Numbers, we discuss what the polls suggest could be the motivations behind Smith’s referendum push, as well as what it could mean for the future of the United Conservative Party — and Pierre Poilievre’s federal Conservatives, too. We also chat about the latest federal polls and what they say about support for the Liberals after what looked like a dip last week. Then, we break down new polls out of Ontario and Nova Scotia and briefly chat about this weekend’s B.C. Conservative leadership race. Finally, Philippe has a few trivia questions about past referendums in Canada.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://thenumberspod.ca/The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.You can watch this episode on YouTube.

Mark Carney’s Liberals continue to hold their lead in the polls over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, while Avi Lewis and the New Democrats have yet to breakthrough. As the summer slowly approaches, we look ahead into our crystal balls at where the polls might stand later in the year with a game of Buy or Sell — are any of the parties and their leaders over-priced in the polls compared to where they’ll be in three months, or are there bargains to be had?This week on The Numbers, we set our expectations for the coming months as we return to a game we last played in September. We also dissect the latest federal polling numbers and take a look at what could be a CAQ comeback in Quebec.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://thenumberspod.ca/The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.You can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Mark Carney’s Liberals are still holding a lead in the polls over Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives, thanks in large part to their increased support among older Canadians. But are the Liberals also out-polling the Conservatives among younger voters? And, if so, what does that mean for the New Democrats and their new leader, Avi Lewis?This week on The Numbers, we take a dive into some of the latest federal polls. We also break down new fundraising numbers and discuss the ongoing Conservative leadership race (and provincial voting intentions) in British Columbia. We then close with a prime ministerial Quiz.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://thenumberspod.ca/The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.You can watch this episode on YouTube.

This past week, we’ve learned that NDP MP Alexandre Boulerice and Liberal MP Jonathan Wilkinson will be vacating their seats in the coming months. Nate Erskine-Smith is also promising to resign his seat once he makes his bid for the Ontario Liberal leadership (and a provincial nomination) official. These trio of byelections, whenever they are called, will prove to be stiff tests for Mark Carney, Pierre Poilievre and Avi Lewis.This week on The Numbers, we break down what will be at stake in these three contests and discuss how they might play out on the electoral calendar. We also look at new polls that suggest Doug Ford might be in trouble in Ontario, as well as some new voting and independence numbers out of Alberta. Then, we close with a Quiz submitted by one of our listeners.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://thenumberspod.ca/The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.You can watch this episode on YouTube.

With a majority government now in place, Mark Carney isn’t likely to head back to the polls anytime soon. That gives Pierre Poilievre time to catch his breath — and catch up to the Liberals. But is the extra time he now has ahead of him as Conservative leader a positive or a negative?This week on The Numbers, we discuss some new poll numbers that suggest Conservative voters might be souring a little on the party’s leader. We also take a look at the national polling scene and break down some new numbers out of Quebec. We then close with a Quiz.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://thenumberspod.ca/The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

With the majority now secured, Mark Carney’s Liberals can look ahead to another 3.5 years in office without going back to the polls. That is, of course, if they don’t want to go back to the polls before then.This week on The Numbers, we discuss the current polling landscape and the fallout from Monday’s byelections and what they could mean for the longevity of this Parliament. We also chat about our experience at the Liberal convention in Montreal and how it contrasted with the NDP convention in Winnipeg (as well as the CAQ convention in Drummondville). We then break down new provincial polling numbers from Quebec, Alberta and British Columbia and end with another edition of The Quiz.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://thenumberspod.ca/The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.You can watch this episode on YouTube.

The Liberals swept all three byelections yesterday, winning as expected in University—Rosedale and Scarborough Southwest and prevailing in a close fight with the Bloc Québécois in Terrebonne. The three wins give Mark Carney a majority government, something the Liberals have not had since 2019. Meanwhile, the Conservative vote tanked across the board and the NDP had a small moral victory with a second-place showing in one of the three contests.We recorded this extra episode of The Numbers just after we finished our livestream late last night, so our apologies ahead of time if our hot takes are a little … under-cooked. We’ll be well-rested and back at it on Thursday with a regular episode of the podcast!Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.You can watch this episode on YouTube.

It was rumoured to be in the offing, but on Wednesday news came of the surprising floor-crossing of Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong MP Marilyn Gladu from the Conservatives to the Liberals, putting Mark Carney’s government even closer to a majority. We started the podcast unaware of the news, but we eventually offer some hot takes on the crossing minutes after it was announced.Still, even with Gladu the Liberals need some wins to make their majority official on Monday night in the three federal byelections being held in the two Toronto ridings of University—Rosedale and Scarborough Southwest and the Quebec riding of Terrebonne.Rarely are byelections so impactful. But beyond the question of whether or not the Liberals will win them, the three contests will be a gauge of where the Conservatives, NDP and Bloc stand in public opinion. Can Pierre Poilievre shake off his party’s poor polling numbers? Can Yves-François Blanchet take back Terrebonne, which was once a stronghold? And can Avi Lewis show any signs of life for his NDP?Join us for a livestream of the byelection results on YouTube, starting at 8:30 PM ET on Monday!We set you up for Monday’s byelections with some over/unders on this week’s (early) episode of The Numbers. We also break down some of the latest polls and discuss the final days of the CAQ’s leadership race, which comes to a close on Sunday.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://thenumberspod.ca/The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.You can watch this episode on YouTube.