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The Numbers
A new polling low for Poilievre?
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More polls are showing some softening support for Mark Carney and the Liberals, while the NDP moves into double-digits. But the trend line isn’t conclusive — except when it comes to the Conservatives, who have shown little life in the polls with one new survey putting the party at a level not seen since before Pierre Poilievre became party leader.
This week on The Numbers, we take a look at the national polling landscape, which seems to be in a moment of some flux. Then, we take a look at the approval ratings of provincial premiers, including Doug Ford’s dropping support. We also dissect new provincial polls out of Alberta, where Danielle Smith’s referendum drive might be hurting the UCP, British Columbia, where the B.C. Conservatives are up following Kerry-Lynne Findlay’s leadership victory, and Quebec, where the PQ has opened up a wider lead over the slumping Liberals. Then, Philippe closes with a 1957-themed Quiz.
Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!
https://thenumberspod.ca/
The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.
You can watch this episode on YouTube.
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New leader, who dis?
44:13|Don’t you know who I am?For many Canadians, the answer is “no” when it comes to some of our political leaders. A new poll from Pollara suggests that very few Canadians can name the leader of the NDP (Avi Lewis) or any cabinet ministers, while Pierre Poilievre’s recognition hasn’t shifted much over the last three years. Plus, many people still struggle to spell his name correctly.This week on The Numbers, we discuss these recognition numbers as well as the latest polls on federal voting intentions nationwide and provincial voting intentions across Atlantic Canada, where the results leave us a little lost for words. We also breakdown Conservative MP Richard Martel’s appointment to the Senate and what it means for the upcoming byelection in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.You can watch this episode on YouTube.New Leaders Draft
41:24|With the start of another summer, it’s time to think about new beginnings — for political parties! This week, we’re doing something we haven’t done before. Every December, we draft the party leaders we think will be heading into the sunset. Now, in this first post-Canada Day episode, we’re drafting leaders who we say will be newly installed at the helm of their parties.The rules are simple: we draft six people onto our teams who we think will (or could) be promoted to party leader between now and next Canada Day. We have a number of provincial leadership races to choose from, but our teams have to include at least one person who we say will win a leadership race that has yet to even be called.Who will win the first edition of the New Leaders Draft? Who has the better team of hopefuls, and who should we have added to our lists? Let us know!Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://thenumberspod.ca/The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.You can watch this episode on YouTube.Will it be a cruel summer for Carney or Poilievre?
56:42|With the summer now getting started, a series of new polls suggest that Mark Carney’s Liberals are starting the season in a good spot, while Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives can’t seem to get any momentum going. Will the summer months provide a respite to the two parties, or could it prove to be a cruel summer in the polls for either of them?This week on The Numbers, we dissect the new federal polls that have been published over the last week. We also break down some provincial polls out of Ontario, Quebec, Manitoba and New Brunswick, as well as discuss the results of a provincial byelection in Nova Scotia. Then, Philippe is back with a 1979-themed Quiz.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://thenumberspod.ca/The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.You can watch this episode on YouTube.Aiming for redemption in the Quiz
51:21|The summer political season is just about to begin as MPs prepare to return to their ridings, so it’s time to take stock of where things stand in the polls. Are we seeing a new level of stability at a new level of support for Mark Carney’s Liberals?This week on The Numbers, we dissect new federal, Quebec and B.C. poll numbers. And, after last week’s debacle, Philippe comes back with another challenging Quiz. Can Éric get any redemption after being humbled so thoroughly?Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://thenumberspod.ca/The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.You can watch this episode on YouTube.Orange Crush or Orange Crushed?
45:16|In one corner, we have a Liberal slump and an NDP surge. In the other corner, we have Liberal dominance and a listless NDP. In both corners, the Conservatives are stuck.But what’s really going on?This week on The Numbers, we try to make some sense of the latest polls that don’t seem to agree on what’s going on with either Mark Carney’s Liberals or Avi Lewis’s New Democrats. We also break down the results of the B.C. Conservative leadership race and what it means for the province going forward. Then, Philippe has a Quiz.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://thenumberspod.ca/The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.You can watch this episode on YouTube.Will Alberta's referendum pit Conservatives vs. Conservatives?
55:44|Premier Danielle Smith has added a question on Alberta separation to the October 19 referendum ballot, a move that will have repercussions for the country and the province. But is it primarily a debate being held amongst the supporters of her own party?This week on The Numbers, we discuss what the polls suggest could be the motivations behind Smith’s referendum push, as well as what it could mean for the future of the United Conservative Party — and Pierre Poilievre’s federal Conservatives, too. We also chat about the latest federal polls and what they say about support for the Liberals after what looked like a dip last week. Then, we break down new polls out of Ontario and Nova Scotia and briefly chat about this weekend’s B.C. Conservative leadership race. Finally, Philippe has a few trivia questions about past referendums in Canada.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://thenumberspod.ca/The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.You can watch this episode on YouTube.Carney, Poilievre and Lewis. Buy or sell?
47:41|Mark Carney’s Liberals continue to hold their lead in the polls over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, while Avi Lewis and the New Democrats have yet to breakthrough. As the summer slowly approaches, we look ahead into our crystal balls at where the polls might stand later in the year with a game of Buy or Sell — are any of the parties and their leaders over-priced in the polls compared to where they’ll be in three months, or are there bargains to be had?This week on The Numbers, we set our expectations for the coming months as we return to a game we last played in September. We also dissect the latest federal polling numbers and take a look at what could be a CAQ comeback in Quebec.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://thenumberspod.ca/The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.You can also watch this episode on YouTube.Is Smith playing with matches in Alberta's referendum powder keg?
56:43|This week’s court ruling on the Alberta separation petition has only raised more questions about whether the province will be holding a referendum on independence this fall. Whatever next steps Premier Danielle Smith takes will come with a great degree of risk — for her party, for the province and for Canada.This week on The Numbers, we discuss some new polling numbers out of Alberta and what they say about the path forward for the UCP government. We also chat about Ontario Liberal leadership hopeful Nate Erskine-Smith’s nomination defeat in Scarborough Southwest and recent polls that show Doug Ford’s Ontario PCs losing support. Plus, we have new federal and Quebec polling numbers to dissect before closing with a byelection-themed Quiz.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://thenumberspod.ca/The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.You can watch this episode on YouTube.