Share

The Investment Perspective, with Ninety One
#79 When private credit flips the script
Season 1, Ep. 79
•
For years, developed markets were seen as the safer home for private credit, while emerging markets carried the higher-risk label. But that gap may be narrowing, and in some cases even reversing. Alper Kilic explores why strains are surfacing in US private credit, how weaker underwriting standards have contributed to the shift, and why emerging market private credit may offer a more resilient opportunity set built on secured lending, stable underwriting standards and real-economy demand.
More episodes
View all episodes

110. #110 Finding value as bond yields rise
14:26||Season 1, Ep. 110Global bond yields are rising again, challenging decades of falling rates, but John Stopford sees a cyclical move, not a regime shock. He explains why he is turning constructive on bonds and why the AI boom is the key risk for equities and credit.
109. #109 Gold's slide didn't break the bull case, it tested it
14:09||Season 1, Ep. 109Gold fell from over $5 500 to about $3 600 this year, and central banks stepped back before coming back in force in the second quarter. Muhammad Docrat explains why the structural case still holds and what gold does for a portfolio that other assets can't.
108. #108 Trump's welcome for Xi signals a shift markets shouldn't ignore
08:47||Season 1, Ep. 108Xi Jinping's Washington visit was more significant than the tariff concessions it produced. The symbolism, including Trump meeting Xi on the tarmac, points to Washington finally treating Beijing as a peer, Philip Saunders argues. For investors who've long priced in a Taiwan flashpoint, that shift deserves more attention than the trade headlines it generated.
107. #107 The biggest risk to SA bonds isn't the SARB decision, it’s DM yields
09:00||Season 1, Ep. 107Three central banks moved last week. A fourth, our own, decides this week. If you're trying to draw one lesson from all of it, Ruen Naidu argues, it’s this: the decision that matters most for South African bonds isn't the one the SARB is about to make.
106. #106 SA’s old economy is cashing in on the new economy's boom
13:00||Season 1, Ep. 106A JSE that looks strong on the surface is really two markets in one: diversified miners and gold and platinum names riding the global AI infrastructure and commodities boom, against an SA Inc split between struggling retailers and resilient banks. Samantha Hartard explains why SA, despite having almost no tech exposure, is still finding a way into the AI trade through copper, coal and the physical buildout behind it.
105. #105 Munitions, multiples and midterms: the risks the markets might be missing now
11:34||Season 1, Ep. 105Malcolm Charles breaks down why two wars, an AI-distorted equity market and an unpredictable US election are colliding at once, and what it means for investors.
104. #104 Bessent and Warsh at loggerheads: who controls the curve?
08:10||Season 1, Ep. 104US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been buying back long bonds to calm a sell-off at the long end of the yield curve. Fed governor Kevin Warsh, fresh from a hawkish Jackson Hole speech, wants the opposite: a smaller balance sheet and a clear signal from the curve. Ruen Naidu unpacks why the two are at odds, and why an oil price spike could override both.
103. #103 The revenge of the old economy
11:09||Season 1, Ep. 103The AI trade's next chapter is likely to run through copper, natural gas and gold, not chips. Paul Gooden sees natural resource equities in the early innings of a new cycle, underpinned by unusually tight supply discipline and free cash flow yields roughly double the global equity market. It's a contrarian case for an out-of-favour asset class riding on the world's most crowded theme.
102. #102 El Niño is brewing a third inflation shock, which markets have yet to price in
10:51||Season 1, Ep. 102El Niño is converging with the Middle East energy shock and fertilizer supply disruptions to create a compounding inflation risk that markets have barely begun to account for. Nicolas Jaquier draws on IMF research showing El Niño has historically driven a fifth of global commodity price swings, and explains why Brazil and Argentina are better placed to absorb the shock than Southeast Asia and Colombia.