The Investment Perspective, with Ninety One

A JSE that looks strong on the surface is really two markets in one: diversified miners and gold and platinum names riding the global AI infrastructure and commodities boom, against an SA Inc split between struggling retailers and resilient banks. Samantha Hartard explains why SA, despite having almost no tech exposure, is still finding a way into the AI trade through copper, coal and the physical buildout behind it.

Malcolm Charles breaks down why two wars, an AI-distorted equity market and an unpredictable US election are colliding at once, and what it means for investors. 

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been buying back long bonds to calm a sell-off at the long end of the yield curve. Fed governor Kevin Warsh, fresh from a hawkish Jackson Hole speech, wants the opposite: a smaller balance sheet and a clear signal from the curve. Ruen Naidu unpacks why the two are at odds, and why an oil price spike could override both.

El Niño is converging with the Middle East energy shock and fertilizer supply disruptions to create a compounding inflation risk that markets have barely begun to account for. Nicolas Jaquier draws on IMF research showing El Niño has historically driven a fifth of global commodity price swings, and explains why Brazil and Argentina are better placed to absorb the shock than Southeast Asia and Colombia.

A R30 billion tax surprise in June, driven by mining royalties, has put South Africa's fiscal turnaround back in the spotlight. Adam Furlan argues the real story isn't the windfall, it's what Treasury does with it: two straight years of primary surpluses and a coming fiscal rule point to an improving credit story that bond markets haven't fully priced in.

The AI debate has moved past valuation and onto something harder to price: whether record capex converts into durable cash flow. From SpaceX's post-IPO wobble to China's cheaper models and the sector's circular financing, Anton du Plooy makes the case for why stock selection, not conviction on AI as a trade, will separate winners from losers.

For 20 years, buybacks and shrinking share counts boosted US equity returns. Sahil Mahtani argues that AI-driven IPOs and secondary issuance are set to reverse that trend, potentially dragging returns down. He draws a parallel to EMs in the 2010s, where a similar issuance wave eroded returns, but says that headwind for EMs is fading just as it builds in the US.

Jason Borbora-Sheen unpacks the first coordinated US-Japan currency intervention since 1998 and why a stronger yen won't hold unless Japan's real rates move. He argues the bigger signal is a global rate cycle that may be settling higher than markets expect, and explains how that's shaping a cautious stance in fixed income.