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47. What Has All This Back-and-Forth Climate Legislating Bought Us?
36:17||Season 3, Ep. 47When Congress passed the Inflation Reduction Act in 2022, researchers estimated it would cut U.S. carbon pollution by more than 40% by the mid-2030s. Then President Trump and a GOP majority partially repealed the law, and many of those emissions declines looked doubtful. What will U.S. carbon emissions look like after the One Big Beautiful Bill Act?We’re starting to get a sense. On this week’s episode of Shift Key, Rob talks with John Bistline and Ryna Cui about a new paper they coauthored modeling the Inflation Reduction Act and One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s combined effects. Bistline is the head of science at Watershed and a former researcher at the Electric Power Research Institute. Cui is a professor at the University of Maryland School of Public Policy and the research director for its Center for Global Sustainability.Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap News.You can find a full transcript of the episode here.Mentioned:The new paper: Impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act and One Big Beautiful Bill Act on the US energy systemA cheat sheet on the energy policy changes in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act--This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by ...Heatmap Pro brings all of our research, reporting, and insights down to the local level. The software platform tracks all local opposition to clean energy and data centers, forecasts community sentiment, and guides data-driven engagement campaigns. Book a demo today to see the premier intelligence platform for project permitting and community engagement.Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.
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46. The Big Interview: John Arnold
58:20||Season 3, Ep. 46If you work around climate or clean energy, you probably know about John Arnold. Although he began his career as a natural gas trader, Arnold has since become one of the country’s most important clean energy investors. He’s the chairman of Grid United, a transmission development firm undertaking some of the country’s most ambitious power line projects, and he is an investor in the advanced geothermal startup Fervo. He and his wife Laura run the philanthropic organization Arnold Ventures.On this week’s episode of Shift Key, Rob talks with Arnold about the current energy chaos and what might come next. They discuss Arnold’s first trip to China, whether Congress might pass permitting reform this year, and what clean energy companies should learn from the fossil fuel industry. Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap News.You can find a full transcript of the episode here.Mentioned: The Menil Collection in HoustonPreviously on Shift Key: Everything We Didn’t Know About the World’s Buzziest Geothermal Startup--This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by Salesforce. Salesforce is the No. 1 AI CRM, where humans with agents drive success together. We invest in bold climate technologies and leverage agentic AI to accelerate nature-based solutions that benefit people and the planet. Learn more. You can also learn more about Salesforce's investments in watersheds.Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.45. Some Great News About the Global Electricity System
40:46||Season 3, Ep. 45Here’s some good news: Clean power met all electricity demand growth last year for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic. That’s according to a new report on global electricity trends from Ember, a U.K. think tank that tracks energy data from around the world. The new review suggests that solar and batteries are continuing to remake the global power system — and outcompeting gas and coal in some of the world’s fastest growing economies.On this week’s episode of Shift Key, Rob is joined by Nicolas Fulghum, the lead author of Ember’s new report and an energy and climate data analyst at the think tank. They discuss why solar keeps breaking records, whether India’s energy development trajectory has changed, and how the Iran War could change this year’s numbers.Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap News.You can find a complete transcript of the episode here.Mentioned:Ember’s Global Electricity Review 2026Previously on Shift Key: Nobody in the West Knows How to Respond to the ‘Electrotech Revolution’--This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by ...Salesforce is the No. 1 AI CRM, where humans with agents drive success together. We invest in bold climate technologies and leverage agentic AI to accelerate nature-based solutions that benefit people and the planet. Learn more. You can also learn more about Salesforce's investments in watersheds here.Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.44. Everything We Didn't Know About the World’s Buzziest Geothermal Startup
44:04||Season 3, Ep. 44Fervo Energy has become a darling of the clean energy industry by using workers and technology from the oil and gas sector to unlock zero-carbon, all-day geothermal electricity. Last week, Fervo filed to go public, giving us the first deep look at its finances and long-term expansion plans. What’s the bull case, the bear case, and the fine print?On this week’s episode of Shift Key, Rob is joined by Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University, as well as Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin to discuss the big news from Fervo’s new filing. Why are people so excited about Fervo? What are the biggest financial questions in its growth plans? And why does it need to go public now?Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap News.You can find a full transcript of the episode here.Mentioned:From Heatmap: 8 Things We Learned From Fervo’s IPO FilingJesse’s report on how to scale geothermal nationwide through experience-induced cost reductionsJesse’s report on how geothermal can be a flexible resource, like natural gas--This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by ...Salesforce is the No. 1 AI CRM, where humans with agents drive success together. We invest in bold climate technologies and leverage agentic AI to accelerate nature-based solutions that benefit people and the planet. Learn more.Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.43. Why Microsoft’s Carbon Removal Pullback Is Such a Big Deal
33:19||Season 3, Ep. 43For the past few years, Microsoft has basically carried the carbon removal industry on its shoulders. The software company has purchased 72 million tons of carbon removal, more than 40 times what any other organization has financed, according to third-party sources.Now it’s pulling back. As we reported last week, Microsoft has told suppliers and partners that it’s pausing new purchases. Though the company says that its program “has not ended,” even a temporary pullback will have significant implications for the nascent carbon removal industry. What happens next for these companies? And is a bloodbath on the way? On this week’s episode of Shift Key, Rob speaks to Jack Andreasen Cavanaugh from Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy about Microsoft’s singular importance and what could come next.Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap News.You can find a full transcript of the episode here.Mentioned:Our initial Friday story: Microsoft Is Pausing Carbon Removal PurchasesJack’s take: The Private Sector Built the Market, Time for Us to Scale ItHeatmap’s Emily Pontecorvo on Ctrl-S, the startup trying to save CDR intellectual property--This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by ...Lunar Energy is building the technology to turn homes into active participants in the power system. Learn more about Lunar’s vision of the future at lunarenergy.com.Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.42. Why the Iran Ceasefire Hasn’t Ended the Energy Crisis
48:42||Season 3, Ep. 42The United States and Iran have agreed to a ceasefire in Iran, and energy markets responded with jubilation — at least initially. Every major Wall Street index surged on Wednesday, and U.S. oil prices fell.But the actual situation on the ground is far more ambiguous, huge questions remain about the truce, and the Strait of Hormuz is as closed today as it has been since the beginning of the war.On this episode of Shift Key, Rob is joined by Rory Johnston, a longtime oil analyst, repeat Shift Key guest, and the author of the Commodity Context newsletter. We talk about why Iran gains from extending the ceasefire, where the pressure in the global energy system is building up, and what could happen next. We also talk about why the Midwest has the cheapest gasoline in the world right now.Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap News.You can find a full transcript of the episode here.Mentioned:Why the Real Oil Crisis Hasn’t Started YetIran’s planned toll for the Strait of Hormuz is a $2.33 per ton carbon taxChina Is the Big Winner of the Iran CeasefireRory’s previous appearance on Shift Key: Why Trump’s Oil Imperialism Might Be a Tough Sell for Actual Oil Companies--This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by ...Lunar Energy is building the technology to turn homes into active participants in the power system. Learn more about Lunar’s vision of the future at lunarenergy.com.Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.41. How Utilities Actually Think
01:02:51||Season 3, Ep. 41How do utilities decide what they want — and need — to build? It’s one of the most important problems driving the data center and clean energy conversations right now. But it’s hard to get a sense of what constraints and ideas actually drive utility decisionmaking from the inside.Alice Yake is the vice president of GRIDS at Breakthrough Energy, and the former senior vice president of system strategy and chief planning officer at Xcel Energy in Colorado. On this episode of Shift Key, she walks us through a half century of the grid’s biggest decisions — what constraints utilities and planners thought they faced, what choices they made, and what it means for the future. She also discusses Breakthrough’s work to build an open-source grid planning tool and how it couldShift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap News.You can find a full transcript of the episode here.Mentioned:California Burning, by Katherine BluntJesse’s paper on uncertainty-aware grid planning in the real worldJames Bonbright’s landmark work on public utility rates--This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by ...Lunar Energy is building the technology to turn homes into active participants in the power system. Learn more about Lunar’s vision of the future at lunarenergy.com.